Ukraine war could be over by Christmas, say military experts
The success of Ukrainian troops in puncturing Russian front lines has raised hopes among western governments and military experts that the war could be over as early as Christmas.
If Kyiv’s progress persists, President Putin’s forces will be pushed out of the Donbas and back to Russia by the end of the year, a senior British government source told The Times.
Taking back Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014, would be harder. The Ukrainian loss of life would probably be huge and some military figures in the country prefer a slower, more tactical, approach. Either way, there is no sign of a winter pause in the fighting.
Ben Hodges, former US commander of American forces in Europe, said Russian lines were collapsing. “Based on all the things we are seeing it has the feeling of a collapse, at least in the Donbas area, and I do believe the Russians will be pushed beyond the February 23 line by the end of the year,” he said, referring to the date before the full-scale invasion began. “It’s an army that’s been defeated.”
As for Crimea, he thought that could take until the summer because of the quality of the forces near the peninsula. If the Ukrainians can retake Kherson — the Black Sea port they are closing in on — they may be able to push within range of Crimea. Then they could deploy the long-range multiple rocket launchers supplied by Britain and America that can hit targets 50 miles away. “Once they do, the people in Crimea are trapped,” said Hodges, who led US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Reports of Russia’s failures on the battlefield have exposed divisions in the Kremlin and led to reshuffles in the top brass. The Russian news site RBC said last night that Moscow had sacked the commander of its eastern military district. It gave no further details.
What the Ukrainians really want from the Americans is the Army Tactical Missile System, a long-range ground-fired missile that can strike targets 190 miles away with a warhead containing about 375lb of explosives, 50 per cent larger than their present capability. With that range, the Ukrainians could try to regain Crimea now.
However, Mattia Nelles, an analyst focused on Ukraine, said the idea the war could be over by the year’s end was “impossible”, cautioning that Russia still had a lot of troops and weapons in Kherson. “Maybe Ukraine can attrite these forces by the end of the year and [make] them withdraw east of the Dnipro but that is not enough to make the front in the south collapse,” he said.
The key is whether Ukraine can muster a new offensive from the southern city of Zaporizhzhya towards Melitopol, one of the first cities to fall after Russia invaded. “If that is happening and successful we could see a full collapse of the southern front. But we are far away from that,” Nelles added.
Western officials believe that as Ukrainian troops push into Donbas, they will meet more battle-hardened Russians. Franz-Stefan Gady, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said neither side had exhausted its military options and both were working on establishing more advantageous tactical and strategic positions to take the war into 2023 before the winter sets in. Once the freezing temperatures hit, soldiers on both sides will find it more difficult to operate and their ability to carry out offensive operations will be limited.
He warned that although the initiative was clearly with Ukraine, it would face ammunition, weapon and vehicle shortages. “For Ukraine it is a race against time to seize as much territory as possible before the onset of winter and before better-trained Russian reinforcements, including new units, reach the front line. For the Russian side, the first order of business is to conduct orderly tactical withdrawals and delay Ukrainian advances,” he said.
British intelligence said repurposed Russian tanks now made up a large part of Ukraine’s armour. The Ministry of Defence said Ukraine had probably captured at least 440 Russian main battle tanks, and about 650 other armoured vehicles.
