ISIS’s future on the first anniversary of the elimination of the organization geographically

The first anniversary of the success of the international coalition led by the United States of America in cooperation with the Syrian Democratic Forces in eliminating the last pockets of ISIS in northeastern Syria, when US President Donald Trump officially announced on March 22, 2019 the end of the alleged succession state that ISIS had established in Iraq and Syria. 

After a year has passed since the organization was eliminated geographically a major question arises, did ISIS risk disappear after its fighters lost the areas they controlled for nearly five years, and what is the future of the organization after the former Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi announced in July 2017 the liberation of the entire Iraqi lands from ISIS control to complete the cycle of eliminating the organization geographically in its main strongholds, Iraq and Syria.

Challenges ahead

The first anniversary of the elimination of ISIS comes geographically, and there are many challenges that are still reflected by the following indicators:

1- The foreign fighters crisis: The foreign fighters crisis remains, on the first anniversary of the elimination of ISIS geographically, a complex challenge for the receiving and sending countries where the positions of Western and Arab countries alike from their nationals who participated in the terrorist organization’s operations varied.

For example Britain withdrew citizenship from citizens. France allowed the trial of its citizens before Iraqi courts, while Morocco formally requested the international coalition to revoke the citizenship of all Moroccans in Syria.

Tunisia - which is considered one of the highest Arab countries for its terrorist fighters' involvement in hotbeds of tension and conflicts outside its lands - adopted the principle that "meat if it is righteous is destroyed by its people" according to Rashid Ghannouchi's statements as an expression of the desire to return its citizens.

Eight countries, including Britain France, Germany, Finland, Sweden, Belgium, the Netherlands and Denmark, are studying their citizens at rehabilitation centers inside Syria, and take tests before returning them to their country.

Dilemma of the Cubs of the Caliphate:

The biggest dilemma in the first anniversary of the elimination of ISIS geographically is how to deal with ISIS children or what they are called the Cubs of the Caliphate in light of the diversity of their nationalities and backgrounds, which may create difficulty in uniting efforts to reach unified working mechanisms to deal with this dilemma as there are no accurate figures for the number of child fighters in the ranks of the organization.

While some statistics estimate the number of child fighters in the ranks of ISIS at about 1,500, there are other statistics that exceed this number.

Possible paths

Scenarios are being drawn for the future of ISIS, linked to the extent of the ability to deal with the most extremist ideas and capabilities of the organization in the world, especially in light of its use of modern technological means to recruit its fighters.

This is something that US President Donald Trump referred to when he announced in October 2019 that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi had been killed saying, "ISIS uses computers and the Internet better than Trump himself." This reflects that eliminating the organization geographically does not mean eradicating its extremist ideology. Against this background there are two possible paths. As for ISIS, on the first anniversary of eliminating its control geographically:

1 - The first track: the restoration of control geographically: a scenario that finds its justifications by the direction of the organization's fighters to guerrilla warfare in the areas that were under their control in Iraq and Syria.

Many international reports may indicate ISIS attempts to market itself again in the border areas between Iraq and Syria. The expectations of a number of those involved in terrorism issues in Iraq also indicate that the northern Diyala region is one of the most dangerous areas in terms of trying to restore the organization to its activities, as the organization's fighters began to attract some who were opposed to its operations.

The organization also takes advantage of the vacuum of the liberated areas, and its people are no longer there, as happens for example in the urban area of ​​Mosul, where there are about 100 villages that are still uninhabited, which the organization accounted for according to a number of followers of Iraqi affairs.

2- The second track: ISIS fighters joining similar terrorist organizations: This is a scenario that a number of those involved in terrorism and extremism issues expect, especially since the organization’s restructuring, even after the selection of a successor to Baghdad, is still facing difficulties, in addition to tightening the countries’ procedures regarding facing sources of funding.

Therefore, it is believed that a number of ISIS fighters will turn to similar terrorist organizations, or the trend towards establishing sub-organizations that will follow in the footsteps of ISIS, as happened in the emergence of the White Banners organization.

In summary, the first anniversary of the elimination of ISIS geographically coincides with the repercussions of the Iraqi movement with regard to the crisis in forming the government and the inability of the conflicting parties to resolve the movement's demands in eliminating sectarianism, corruption and economic decline, and limiting the effects of regional and international influence in Iraq.

It is the interactions that will undoubtedly determine the future of ISIS and whether the organization will fade geographically, or will be able to return again.