Scenarios of U.S. interventions in Idlib… Trump seeking the Syria cake

Mahmoud Roshdi

The governorate of Idlib represents one of the latest stages of the conflict in Syria. Idlib’s geostrategic importance emphasizes as it will determined the results of future negotiations and roles; accordingly, countries involved in the conflict seek a bigger part at the negotiations phase, in addition to preserving their interests in the region.

Each of the countries intervening in Syria, namely Russia, Iran and Turkey, has its own mechanisms of dealing in Idlib; for instance, Syria sees the military solution to be the fittest, in terms of full geographic control and elimination of armed factions.

Iran on the other hand seeks to highlight an effective role in Idlib after its influence in Southern Syria receded due to the Israeli-Russian negotiation that pushed Tehran around 50 miles away from the borders of Southern Syria. Iran too prefers a military solution to eliminate all the militias that threaten the existence of the Syrian regime.

As for Turkey, it prefers the solution of negotiation in Idlib, while postponing the military solution indefinitely because it means its defeat in Syria and losing its role in the anticipated negotiation phase; also, Turkey’s presence in the Syrian scene would prevent the Kurdish existence in the region, which threaten Turkey’s aspirations to establish self-rule on the southern Turkish border.

But what about the U.S. role?

The U.S. role changed with Donald Trump in office; he created the Global Coalition to Defeat Deash and supported armed factions against the Syrian regime.

Trump’s less interventionist policy focuses at the mean time on the principle of isolation while seeking more economic gains.

Moreover, conflicts in the region cost the United States billions of US dollars; therefore, it left the Syrian arena to other powers, most notably Russia.

But despite that Trump has always criticized the Obama’s administration and its intervention in Syria, he refrained from completely withdrawing from it, kept the U.S. military base in Al-Hasakah Governorate and supported Kurdish forces.

The White House warned that the United States and its allies would respond “swiftly and appropriately” if Syrian President Bashar al-Assad used chemical weapons in Syria’s rebel-held Idlib region.

We can conclude that the biggest gain for the United States currently would be to prolong the war for as long as possible, because admitting the current situation would reduce the U.S. share in the negotiations phase, with Russia, Turkey and Iran in the picture.

Scenarios of U.S. intervention in Syria

Scenarios of how the United States would deal with the situation in case the Syrian regime launched an attack over Idlib revolve around the following;

Limited military operations; Washington might launch a limited military operation that will probably not be so different from the previous attack in in the city of Deir ez-Zor in north-eastern Syria after reports that the Syrian regime launched a chemical attack against civilians in April 2018, despite that Russia knew of this attack, according to Deutsche Welle. Such small operations are what cost the United States its role in Syria and limited it to its military base in Al-Hasakah governorate, as Trump fears confrontation with Russia in the Syrian scene. He also sees foolishness in starting a third world war for al-Bashar al-Assad.

Imposing economic sanctions; The United States, in cooperation with its European allies, especially Germany and France, to practice more pressure on Russia to postpone the military solution.

War through Kurdish militias; It is also likely that the United States would push the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is a multi-ethnic and multi-religious alliance of predominantly Kurdish, to launch a war under claims of countering the al-Qaeda in Syria. This scenario is considered the last card in the U.S. deck to preserve its role in future negotiations through increasing support to the SDF in holding possession over Deir ez-Zor.

It is likely that the United States will initiate limited military operations in case of a military attack on Idlib against the Syrian regime and the involved Iranian militias; all in conjunction with an increased U.S. existence East of the Euphrates and support to Syrian Democratic Forces.