Fall of Iran’s crown jewel: Hezbollah in trouble after resignation of Diab's government

The Iranian regime has worked to impose its influence and hegemony in Arab countries by establishing many terrorist arms that have contributed spreading political corruption and economic collapse in those countries. Hezbollah is one of the Iranian militias that brought Lebanon into a dark tunnel since 2005, when it imposed its influence on the political and economic arena in Lebanon with the support of Tehran's mullahs.

Beirut disaster

The latest disastrous result of the Iranian militia’s control over Lebanon was the Beirut port explosion on August 4, which came as a result of Hezbollah’s long-term storage of ammonium nitrate, which is used in the manufacture of explosives. The explosion resulted in the killing of at least 160 people and the injury of more than 6,000, followed by the Lebanese people demonstrating in mass to demand that those responsible for the disaster be held accountable. This prompted the Lebanese government headed by Hassan Diab to formally submit its resignation on August 10, after the finance, media and justice ministers submitted their resignations in protest to what happened in Beirut.

Hezbollah alone after resignation

Hezbollah worked to obstruct the government’s resignation, but its attempts were unsuccessful. The Diab government had been supportive of Hezbollah, as opposed to the Saad Hariri government that resigned in October 2019. This was evident in Diab's hints when announcing the government's resignation. He indicated that his government had made many efforts to solve Lebanon's problems, but there is a ruling political class that wants to preserve its ability to control the state, so the government submitted its resignation to stand by the Lebanese people in their demand to hold those responsible accountable, according to Lebanese media.

The foregoing indicates that Hezbollah has become alone in Lebanon. This prompted the Iranian regime to try to defend its Lebanese militia, which is the most prominent culprit for having caused the Beirut disaster. Therefore, Mousavi declared on August 10 that the port explosion should not be exploited as a pretext for political goals and even demanded that Washington lift its sanctions on Hezbollah, which the US classifies as a terrorist organization.

Changing political equation

The resignation of the Lebanese government and the changing political equation has also raised questions about its impact and repercussions on the influence of Iran and its arm in Lebanon in the coming period. Osama al-Hutaimi, a journalist specializing in Iranian affairs, explained to the Reference that the developments in the political scene in Lebanon following the explosion represent a severe blow to Hezbollah’s influence, as all eyes have turned to the militia. Even if it is not the primary culprit directly responsible for the situation in Lebanon, it is one of the major entities that must be held accountable for what has happened in the country, especially since its influence has grown in a recent years and it has gained almost complete hegemony and control over the entire Lebanese state.

Hutaimi pointed out that internal and external pressures on Lebanon questioning the necessity of changing the political equation will have a noticeable effect on Hezbollah’s approach and moves in the next phase, as Hezbollah senses that this time the matter is very serious, so it will undoubtedly be pushed to make some concessions in order to get through the event, reduce losses, and prevent any opportunity for those opposing the militia and its influence in Lebanon.

He added that it is likely that Hezbollah will waver soon in response to some American and Western demands, although it is not unlikely that there will be an evolution in the militia’s stances towards some American demands, such as talking about the nature and expansion of the powers of the UNIFIL forces in southern Lebanon and not limiting it to the role of monitoring only, as well as the closure of the Lebanese-Syrian borders and reducing Hezxbollah’s influence at the Beirut port and Beirut airport.

Hutaimi pointed out that the resignation of Diab’s government, which was supported by Hezbollah, came as a declaration of political failure for the militia, which could not satisfy the street or implement any of the promises made by the government during the seven months it had the reins, which will weaken its position and contribute to changing the political map to Hezbollah’s disadvantage.

This would lead to the decline of Hezbollah’s influence, which also means the decline of Iranian influence, not only in Lebanon, but in the rest of the countries where Iran seeks to consolidate its influence, Hutaimi emphasized. Hezbollah was and remains Iran’s crown jewel in the region, representing the mullahs’ ideal model to be replicated in other countries. Hezbollah’s failure or even its weakening means a diminution of this influence.