Disunity kicks al-Qaeda out of history
Although al-Qaeda was founded 30 years ago in 1988, its strategy has
been unstable in tackling what it calls "near" and "far"
enemies. That's what author Fouad Hussein pointed out in his book, published in
2005, "Al-Zarqawi: The 2nd Generation of al-Qaeda".
The book tackled the organization's strategy at a time of announcing a
caliphate and its strategy on the changing Islamic world in between 2000 and
2020.
When we analyze the strategy, which targeted the far enemy (the West and
the United States) in the beginning, we find it is divided into 7 phases with a
timetable over a span of 20 years. However, al-Qaeda failed in achieving any
targets.
The 7 phases are as follows: (1) awakening, (2) eye opening, (3) rising,
(4) standing on feet, (5) power to change, (6) declaration of the state, and (7)
overall confrontation and victory.
ISIS emergence
The emergence of ISIS has confused al-Qaeda after it declared the
caliphate on June 30, 2014. Abu Muhammad al-Adnani, ISIS spokesperson, announced
named Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as caliph, urging all Muslims worldwide to pledge
allegiance to him. Al-Adnani's statement denoted a disagreement with al-Qaeda
over the caliphate.
The statement said all organizations and groups are illegitimate unless
they pledge allegiance to al-Baghdadi, adding that these organizations should be
disbanded.
"A bullet in the head of anyone who seeks sedition", an ISIS
statement said. A number of analysts consider ISIS a separated organization
from al-Qaeda, although its founder -- Abu Musab al-Zarqawi – was one of al-Qaeda's
leaders who left Afghanistan.
Al-Zarqawi favored the caliphate and fighting the near enemy rather than
the far enemy.
Algerian Islamist researcher Yehia Bouzeidi says al-Qaeda sought the
collapse of ISIS, which has become a rival.
"ISIS shifted to the near enemy strategy just like al-Zarqawi.
Al-Qaeda will certainly try to reorganize itself calling for fighting the far
enemy to recruit new members," Bouzeidi told THE REFERENCE.
Al-Qaeda's key phase was the declaration of the state in early 2013,
according to Hussein's aforementioned book. ISIS declared it in 2014.
Hussein stated in his book that the western grip over the Arab countries
would weaken after the declaration of the state and there wouldn't be any
abortive strikes against the newly declared [Islamic] state. This phase was
supposed to end in 2016, according to the book.
Hisham al-Ali, a researcher at the European Center for Intelligence and
Counter Terrorism, said: "We should realize that al-Qaeda, ISIS and other
organizations are one face of the takfiri, armed Salafi trend. They all share
the same targets".
"These organizations have only different names and organizational
structures, as well as leaders. These organizations share the same dogmas and
amenable to internal divisions," al-Ali told THE REFERENCE.
As for a possible battle in Idlib, al-Ali said that the economic
sanctions on Iran and Shiite-Shiite tensions in Iraq would urge the takfiri
Salafi groups reorganize their operations under ISIS.
"ISIS, Al-Nusra Front and other groups are bubbles of the
mainstream takfiri Salafi trend," al-Ali said.
Commenting on the shift to 'near enemy' strategy, Islamist researcher
Hisham El-Naggar said: "Al-Qaeda changed its strategy due to its weak
resources and its inability to continue targeting the US and western interests,
especially after 9/11. The London bombings in 2005 and Charlie Hebdo attack in
Paris in 2015 are excluded".
