Does ceasefire actually mark end of Turkish presence in Libya?
The separate announcements by Fayez al-Sarraj’s Government
of National Accord (GNA) and Libyan Parliament Speaker Aguila Saleh on Friday,
August 21 regarding an immediate ceasefire, holding presidential and
parliamentary elections in March 2021, ending foreign interference, removing mercenaries
from the country, and opening oil production and export process opens the door
to questions about the extent of Ankara's response to this decision by ending
its military interference in Libyan territory.
In light of a history of similar decisions and agreements
that Turkish-backed Sarraj retracted just because of its opposition to Turkish
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s plan, as well as the impact of the ceasefire
decision (if implemented) on Ankara's presence in Libya, the question remains:
Has Sarraj consulted his Turkish ally to take this decision, or did Ankara take
it?
Before answering these questions, it should be noted that
when Egypt proposed an initiative on June 6 guaranteeing a return to peaceful
solutions in Libya and a ceasefire, many countries supported it at the Arab and
international level, but Turkey announced on July 13, via Foreign Minister
Mevlut Cavusoglu, its rejection of the Egyptian initiative, saying that this
announcement would not be in the interest of the GNA.
Qatari and Turkish endeavors
Analysts believe that there will be Qatari and Turkish
efforts to thwart the ceasefire decision in order to support Turkey’s
interference in Libya, which is based on the depletion of land and sea
resources.
Although Ankara signed an international agreement in Berlin
at the beginning of 2020 stipulating not interfering in Libyan affairs, it did
not fulfill its pledges, as usual, and continued its military support for the
GNA militias. On Friday, August 21, Turkey sent a C-130 military plane loaded
with mercenaries and ammunition, which landed at the Libyan al-Watiya base, to
support Sarraj, according to Al-Arabiya.
Qualitative development
To answer the previous questions, Hesham al-Najjar, a
researcher specializing in Islamist movements, explained to the Reference that
the ceasefire decision represents a qualitative development and will likely be
the beginning of a tactical retreat of the Qatari-Turkish-Brotherhood alliance
in Libya in front of the strong Egyptian position that does not allow the
advancement of Turkish forces or affiliated militias. Moreover, it may be a
Turkish maneuver to take a breath, arrange its cards, and mobilize more forces
on the ground to re-attempt to extend its hegemony over Libya. These
developments must therefore be dealt with cautiously.
Najjar pointed out that Sarraj cannot take a unilateral
decision of this size without returning to Erdogan, so it is expected that the
Turkish president and his intelligence service are the ones who pushed for this
approach, since he is now in trouble and cannot militarily change the stalemate
and reality on the ground due to many factors, including the Egyptian position
and Washington's rejection of any military escalation that could lead to
expanded regional conflict. Erdogan therefore resorted to political
maneuvering, which is a tactic he used in the Syria, without completely giving
up the military option.
Mercenary problem
For his part, Mohamed Sadiq Ismail, director of the Arab
Center for Political and Strategic Studies, told the Reference that the
ceasefire will affect Turkey and its mercenaries in Libya. If Sarraj implements
this decision, the mercenaries must return to their homelands again, which
poses another problem, because these mercenaries could penetrate into Africa if
Erdogan does not bring them back to their places of origin. Therefore,
international guarantees must be taken for the Turkish president to return them
just as he had brought them.
Ismail explained that this decision is primarily Turkish and
that Ankara dictated it to Sarraj, as indicated by Ankara welcoming it after
Sarraj suffered many military defeats recently.
