Issued by CEMO Center - Paris
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Qatar on the way out as Horn of Africa undergoes change

Wednesday 19/September/2018 - 04:08 PM
The Reference
طباعة


Mohamed al-Daboli

The Horn of Africa region witnessed major transformations in the past few months.

These include a change in the nature of regional alliances, one that will ultimately lead to reducing Qatari and Turkish influence in this strategic region.

Ethiopia was instrumental in effecting these transformations, thanks to its strategic location and also its vital role in the region.

In playing a role in this regard, Addis Ababa was motivated by internal political changes happening in it since the beginning of this year. These changes brought Abiy Ahmed to the helm in the African state. Ethiopia was also motivated by growing regional support, especially from Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Support by the two states has had far-reaching ramifications on conditions in the region. This is manifest in the role the three of them played in helping Eritrea and Ethiopia reach peace after years of animosity. They also played a role in ending tensions between Eritrea and Djibouti.

Ongoing work

Mediation among regional rivals and also an attempt to find a framework for regional security are among the things being done in the Horn of Africa region now. The aim of these efforts is to reach the state of zero problems or zero animosities. They also aim to convince regional actors to suspend some of their old policies that caused problems to neighboring states in the past.

Growing Saudi presence

Saudi Arabia has been trying to expand its presence in the Horn of Africa region. This was clear in latest developments in the region, especially in understandings reached between Eritrea and Djibouti. The two states were entangled in border disputes for a long time.

Ethiopia and Somalia appeared to play a big role in mediation between Djibouti and Eritrea. Nonetheless, Djiboutian Foreign Minister Mohamed Ali Youssef said unveiled on Twitter recently the presence of a Saudi role in mediation between his country, on one hand, and Eritrea, on the other.

On September 16, the Saudi city of Jeddah hosted a mini-Horn of Africa summit. The leaders of Ethiopia, Eritrea and Djibouti attended the summit. Ethiopia and Eritrea signed a reconciliation agreement during the summit. Discussions during the event also focused on means of ending tensions between Djibouti and Eritrea.

But this is only part of Saudi efforts to bring about peace in the Horn of Africa region. According to think tank Mogadishu Studies Center, Saudi Arabia was represented in all conferences on the Somali crisis. Saudi Arabia also hosted Somali rivals in 2007 in its bid to end the war in the restive country, the center said.

Saudi Arabia works to end Qatari presence in the region, especially in Djibouti. When the Gulf crisis started, Djibouti's stance was not clear. It first took sides with the four Arab states, namely Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain, which cut off diplomatic and trade ties with Doha.

Qatar, in response, pulled out its troops out of the border Damaira region which is at the center of disputes with Eritrea. Start 2018, Djibouti started getting closer to Qatar yet again by picking for trouble with the UAE. In February 2018, Djibouti terminated a contract it signed earlier with the Emirati company DP World for the upgrade of the Port of Doraleh.

Saudi mediation encouraged Eritrea and Djibouti to normalize relations after years of boycott.

Ending Eritrean-Ethiopian tensions

In his first speech, after taking over in Ethiopia at the end of March this year, Abiy Ahmed said he would work to end problems with Eritrea. In July 2018, Ethiopia and Eritrea agreed to abide by the Algiers Agreement which called for withdrawal from the disputed Badme region. In September, the two states reopened their borders.

Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki used common understandings between them to declare an official end to the war between their two countries. Both leaders also opened shared borders.

 

 

 


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