4th generation of terrorist groups, ideologies and strategies

A large number of Arab states gained their independence from occupation during the 1950s and the 1960s. Occupation forces in these states made the conditions in them appropriate for radical organizations to take root and grow.

The Muslim Brotherhood, for example, was born in Egypt at the time of the country's occupation by the British. In Indonesia, the most important radical organizations emerged during the Dutch occupation of the country.

Rife political and social corruption constituted a formidable challenge in most Arab states over the years. This corruption held the economies of these states back. Compounding this challenge was the emergence of a large number of radical organizations that refused to live in peace with the rest of society.

The same radical organizations underwent tremendous change since their appearance. This change opened the door for the presence of new generations of terrorist groups, each of which had its own characteristics.

There are three distinct generations of terrorist organizations. Each of these generations evolved in a way that was different from the way the generation that preceded it evolved. The third generation of terrorist organizations, including al-Qaeda, faces a number of crises, most important of which are the repeated security blows it sustains. These blows made the organization less capable of controlling the booty it had collected since 2014.

These blows mean that the organization might be witnessing its death. This is why there are questions on the nature of the period that might follow the death of terrorist organizations like al-Qaeda and Daesh.

This study will try to speculate the nature of the terrorist organizations that might emerge after the death of this third generation of terrorist groups. In doing this, it will depend on the following points:

First generation's birth framework

The first generation of terrorist groups appeared in the 1905s and 1960s. These groups collided frontally with the regimes in the countries where they appeared. They wanted to bring these regimes down and form alternate regimes that apply Islamic Sharia law, as these groups claim.

Local nature of terrorist groups

Like all Arab and predominantly Muslim states, Egypt suffered from the presence of radical organizations in it. In the 1950s and 1960s, these organizations, including the Muslim Brotherhood, entered into confrontation with the regime of the late revolutionary leader Gamal Abdel Nasser. The group wanted to destabilize the regime in preparation for founding a new political system that helps it achieve its goals.

As the confrontation between the regime and the Brotherhood raged on, other more violent extremist organizations popped up, such as Jamaa Islamiyya and Islamic Jihad. Both organizations were formed by the end of the 1960s. They masterminded and perpetrated most terrorist attacks in the 1970s until the 1990s, opening the door for the birth of a new generation of terrorist groups.

Birth conditions

The conditions in which most terrorist organizations were born were almost similar in all states were this birth took place. Most of these terrorist organizations appeared in countries that suffered an identity crisis, especially in the period that followed the foreign occupation of these countries. These organizations appeared to claim that they were fighting to revive the Islamic identity of their countries.

The economic and political conditions of the birth of these organizations were also almost similar in all countries. Most of the states were these organizations appeared suffered economic deterioration, which led to the appearance of tough social problems. These problems included the spread of corruption. This corruption made the conditions appropriate for the birth of terrorist organizations.

Second generation turning global

International conditions at the beginning of 1979 made the emergence of the 4th generation of terrorist organizations possible. Political Islam grew in an unprecedented manner in that year. This was the year when the Islamic Revolution erupted and succeeded in Iran. The revolution was led by the country's mullahs. The then-Soviet Union also occupied Afghanistan in that year, which opened the door for what came to be known as "Afghani Jihad".

This jihad offered a strong push that helped terrorist organizations become international in nature. The Soviet occupation of Afghanistan united international terrorist organizations and brought them together in one spot, namely Afghanistan.

The valleys of Qandahar turned into an incubator for the second generation of terrorist organizations. Afghani Jihad succeeded in ending the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. This brought al-Qaeda organization into being in 1998.