UN-sponsored talks scheduled on Libyan crisis in Morocco, Geneva

Libyan sources confirmed that secret talks are scheduled in Geneva, September 5-6, and will be attended by representatives of the Tobruk-based Libyan parliament and the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA). If this meeting pans out, it will be the first direct meeting between representatives of the two rival camps since they both accepted the ceasefire last month. Analysts say discussions will take place without a minimum consensus on the foundations of the dialogue.

Sources told The Arab Weekly that the two scheduled meetings will be held under the auspices of the United Nations, and both of them came as a result of moves by the acting top UN Envoy to Libya Stephanie Williams, who is trying to suggest that the wheel of the political process will not stop and can still turn despite the row in Tripoli between Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj and the Minister of the Interior Fathi Bashagha.

Sarraj is currently trying to strengthen his political influence and is willing to make political U-turns on more than one level in order to defeat his opponent Bashagha, especially now that their bitter rivalry has become personal and in broad daylight, and amid growing doubts about their ability to continue working together in the coming period.

A few days ago, Stephanie Williams travelled to Morocco, Egypt and Tunisia in order to ensure their support, as Libya’s neighbours, for her initiatives. The UN Envoy wanted also to convey messages of hope and to impress on her interlocutors that she was able to succeed where six previous envoys had failed, and achieve a breakthrough in the Libyan stalemate.

It has been six months now since Williams became acting envoy in Libya, following the resignation of the former envoy Ghassan Salamé. The United Nations has yet to find a replacement for Salamé or confirm Williams in her position as the gap remains wide between stakeholders on the names put forward by different parties.

United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres, prefers not to clash with any of the powers that submit candidates for the position of envoy; this is why he is still hesitating to choose a replacement for Salamé, especially since his term as Secretary-General ends next year and he is up for a second term, thus needing to avoid divisions about his candidacy and the approval of the majority and of the influential powers in the international organisation.

During her visit to Cairo on Saturday and Sunday, Stephanie listened to the Egyptian viewpoint on the Libyan crisis and appreciated Cairo’s continued support for a political solution, as long as it had short-term prospects.

Williams absorbed a fair amount of information she received regarding the pitfalls and obstacles facing the political process, both from the inside and from the outside, and seemed determined to push through with her initiative of opening up the dialogue to all forces and rival parties in Libya and to pressure them to sit together.

The expected Geneva meeting coincides with another meeting in Morocco, around the same period, between representatives of the Libyan Parliament and of the State Council—a consultative body that emerged from the Skhirat Agreement and consisted of members of the National Congress, most of whom are Islamists—to bridge the gap between the opposite forces.

On August 19 and following his visit to Rabat, the President of the Council of State, Khaled al-Mishri, announced his readiness to meet with the head of the Libyan Parliament, Aguila Saleh, in Morocco, without preconditions, but Saleh did not pick up on the invitation.

Libyan sources believe that Aguila Saleh has become the main political front in eastern Libya, and that he is determined to open up to all forces in all parts of Libya that are interested in a political solution, regardless of their inclinations and affiliations.

Stephanie Williams contributed to having both Saleh and Sarraj accept a ceasefire, almost at the same time, and aspires to build on the move politically and overcome its military vulnerability.

In light of the conflict between the main political figures in Tripoli—Sarraj, Bashagha and Mishri—and despite the ambiguity of the whole public scene, the speaker of the Libyan parliament has been acting with a level of political responsibility drawing the attention of Western circles to his previous initiative about changing the current government and amending the composition of the Presidency Council to include Libya’s three main regions, Cyrenaica, Tripoli and Fezzan.

The escalation of the dispute between the political class in Tripoli, the conflict over loyalties, and the menacing friction between the militias, have increased doubts about the legitimacy of Sarraj and his government. These doubts are coupled with growing fears of a likely coup or major chaos in which Turkey is definitely set to be playing a major role. Given all of these conditions, the idea of ​​amending the Skhirat Agreement has suddenly become desirable.

Observers were sceptical about the ability of any of the Geneva or Rabat direct meetings to stir the stagnant political waters in Libya. Furthermore, no progress has been achieved on the military front either within the framework of the indirect negotiations of the so-called “5 + 5” talks.

One observer described to The Arab Weekly this type of planned meetings as “public relations talks that will not be able to delve into the depth of the crisis because the crisis is bigger than just talks, and each party wants to reserve its place at the table in anticipation of surprises in a scene full of political and military upheavals where no one can guarantee his fate.”

Libyan political sources expected these moves would be rejected by the military parties, especially by the Libyan army, which did not hesitate to announce its rejection of the Sarraj initiative, one that was consistent in many of its details with the statement issued by Saleh on the same day.

Many Libyan politicians loyal to the Libyan National Army (LNA)  view with suspicion Aguila Saleh’s actions, which, in their opinion, aim to prolong the life of the parliament and recycle the same faces affiliated with the current of political Islam that had, nearly six years ago now, overturned the parliamentary elections and staged a coup that sparked the current crisis and led to a political split in the country.

Former member of the General National Congress, Touatial-Eidha, launched on his Facebook page a scathing attack on Aguila Saleh. “Aguila Saleh lies in public and conspires in secret,” he wrote. “Either he does not realise the seriousness of what he is doing, or he is chin-deep in the plot for his own benefit.”

“What is coming is worse than any other Skhirat-type agreement and its consequences will be devastating at the national level,” al-Eidha added. “They are going to turn Sirte into a Libyan Kashmir and reduce the Libyan crisis to a conflict between eastern Libya and western Libya.”