France and Turkey set for confrontation in East Med dispute

France and Turkey are set for a growing confrontation as they each seek to assert their influence in the Mediterranean, analyst Henri J. Barkey said on Wednesday.

French President Emmanuel Macron is seeking to take a leadership role in region following the failure of the United States and the European Union to deal with crises, including tensions between Greece, Cyprus and Turkey over hydrocarbons in the Mediterranean Sea, Barkey said in an article for the National Interest.

Faced with violations of their sovereignty, “Greece and Cyprus do not have the military wherewithal to stop the Turks”, but by deploying the French Navy to the region, Macron “is laying down a red line intended to deter Ankara”, he said.

Ankara does not recognise the 1982 United Nations Law of the Sea Convention under which grants Greece and Cyprus larges parts of the eastern Mediterranean off the Turkish coast. And the issue has been given extra significance by the recent discovery of natural gas in the area.

France has also been seeking to counter Turkish influence in Libya, which it sees as “an attempt by Erdogan to extend his influence in an area that is the soft underbelly of Europe”, Barkey said.

Turkey has provided military support to the Government of National Accord in Tripoli, and, in return, was granted access to Libya’s Mediterranean waters, circumventing Greece and Cyprus. France, on the other hand, has tacitly backed the rival Libyan administration headed by rebel General Khalifa Haftar in Tobruk.

Macron’s strong stance appeared to be working, after Turkey appeared to back down in the eastern Mediterranean earlier this week by suspending surveying activities in the contested waters, but “the jury may still be out on Macron’s step into the leadership vacuum”, Barkey said.