Experts put scenarios on future of Shiite militias in Syria amid possible Idlib battle
Monday 24/September/2018 - 04:20 PM
Ali Rajab
As revealed by the French newspaper Le Figaro that the Iranian Revolutionary
Guards are setting up an Afghan Hezbollah project, similar to the party's
experience in Lebanon, the questions are raised about the future of the Shiite
militias in Syria, especially after the Syrian conflict entered a crucial stage
with a potential battle in Idlib and talks about Iran's intention to reproduce
the Hezbollah model in several other countries.
The number of factions of the Shiite militias in Syria stands at more than 60,
according to data released by the Syrian opposition, with an estimated number
of 60,000 fighters, according to a report published by the newspaper «Middle
East».
Colonel Fatih Hassoun, a member of the Syrian opposition delegation in the
Geneva 5 negotiations, said that there are 14 training camps and 20 IRGC
command centers in Syria, including the Zeinab barracks, the Yarmouk
headquarters, the third headquarters of the Revolutionary Guards, the Iranian
military operations center in the north and headquarters of the town of Maya.
As for the nationalities of these militias, there is the Lebanese Hezbollah,
the first Shiite militia that intervened in Syria, as well as fighters from
Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, Iraq and Bahrain, according to Syrian strategist
Zaher al-Saket.
The Lebanese Hezbollah is the most prominent militia in Syria, with 10,000
fighters, in the Syrian conflict. In a televised speech Wednesday (September
19th, 2018), Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah assured a group of
his supporters in Beirut that Hezbollah fighters would remain in Syria
"until a further notice".
After Hezbollah, Iraqi Shiite factions in Syria are second in number, with
about 5,000 fighters, including most notably the Iraqi Hezbollah, the Iraqi
Nujaba Movement, and the Imam Hussein militia, "Osoud Allah",
"Imam Ali Battalions", "the Union of the Rightful",
"Abu Al-Fadl Al Abbas" and "Asaib Ahl Al Haq".
Another Shiite faction in Syria is the Fatimiyon Brigade, an Afghan militia
founded by Ali Reza Tusli in 2014 with the aim of fighting in Syria.
There is also the "Zainabion Brigade", composed of elements of
Pakistan's Shiites. The Pakistani militia is more than an armed militia
involved in the Syrian conflict. It is part of a larger project by the Iranian
regime aimed at exploiting them in Pakistan giving priority to its political
requirements, according to a statement by Dr. Khaled Yaymut, a professorof
political science at the University of Damascus, Mohammed V University.
In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper, Yaymut said that Iran's goal
was to create real branches of the Basij (an Iranian armed ideology militia) in
neighboring countries. This means forming and preparing non-Iranian militias
who are loyal to the Iranian regime.
A mysterious future
A number of analysts have put scenarios for the fate of the Shiite militias in
Syria. Mohamed Hamed, an expert on international relations, said in a statement
to the Reference that naturalization is one of the most prominent of these
scenarios. The majority of those Shiite militias based in Syria would receive
the Syrian nationality a reward for their role in defending the Syrian
government, and confronting the armed opposition.
Mahmoud Jaber, an Iranian researcher, believes that there are three scenarios
for the future of the pro-Iranian armed militias in Syria, ranging from their
survival or exit from Syria, according to developments in the Syrian conflict.
"The first scenario is the survival of groups loyal to Iran, because the
interests of Iran keep these factions, as a force in the management of the
conflict, to make gains within Syria and the Middle East as a whole,"
Jabir said in a statement.
The second scenario, from Jabir's point of view, is the withdrawal of some of
these factions and their use in other regions, particularly the eastern
neighbors of Iran (Afghanistan-Pakistan).
In the third and final scenario, Jaber says that he can withdraw all Shiite
militias from Syria, but through an agreement that guarantees Iran the
maintenance of its interests and the re-positioning of these forces in other
areas, according to the map of Iranian interests and the nature of the conflict
with the international powers.
