Washington and Ankara: Tense relationship determined by US election results
The importance of the current US elections for Turkey is
that its result will determine the level of relations between the two countries
over the next four to eight years, as this relationship has witnessed deep
differences since the arrival of Republican President Donald Trump to the Oval
Office due to the lack of stability in relations between him and Turkish
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, especially after the latter’s intransigence and
his continuation of provocative policies in the region, such as the conflicts
in Syria and Iraq, Ankara’s attitudes towards Libya, and the Cyprus and eastern
Mediterranean issue. However, despite the differences between them, which were
evident in a package of sanctions and decisions taken by Washington against the
Turkish regime and its policies, Trump has maintained a good relationship with
his Turkish counterpart.
Complex files
Turkey has recently raised a climate of tension and
escalation at the regional level, and there have been some inflammatory files
between Turkey and the United States that have exacerbated relations between
the two countries. American-Turkish relations have sometimes been involved in
unstable conflicts. The old accounts that are running between them must end
thanks to the great geopolitical changes that the region is witnessing,
specifically international relations and interests in general.
In 2018, the conflict reached its climax and the escalation
of tensions in diplomatic relations between the two countries due to the case
of American priest Andrew Branson, even reaching the limit of reciprocal
sanctions between them. In addition, the Turkish military operation in
northeastern Syria against the armed Kurdish units caused a renewed dispute
between them in 2019.
Turkey's purchase of the Russian S-400 missile system was
one of the most important crises in relations between Ankara and Washington
during the Trump era, at which time the US Congress demanded imposing sanctions
on Turkey. These sanctions were supposed to come into force after the signing
of the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) in
August 2017, but the US president decided to maintain relations with Turkey,
obstructing the imposition of the CAATSA sanctions and other sanctions.
Additionally, the friendly relations between Trump and
Erdogan have preserved the relations between the two countries well, despite
the conflict between their interests in foreign policy regarding several files,
especially in Syria.
Biden
There are various differences between the policies of Trump
and his Democratic rival, Joe Biden, towards many issues with Turkey,
especially the Syrian file and the allegations of the Armenian genocide. Last
December, Biden attacked the Turkish president and called for cooperation with
the Turkish opposition to bring him down, which was widely celebrated among many
Turkish parties.
Biden has criticized several Turkish positions during his
election campaign, including opposition to Ankara’s military operations in
Syria. He also described the agreement between Trump and Erdogan to provide
Turkey a safe zone as a betrayal of the Kurds and the Kurdish Democratic Union
Party (KDPU), as he supports the establishment of autonomy for the armed
Kurdish units in northern Syria.
Biden is not satisfied with Turkey's policies and activities
to explore for natural gas in the eastern Mediterranean region, and he has
stressed cooperation with the allied countries in the eastern Mediterranean,
namely Greece, Israel, Egypt and France, as well as the need to isolate Turkey.
He also supports imposing the CAATSA sanctions if Turkey does not abandon the
Russian S-400 system, and he acknowledged the need for American recognition of
the Armenian Genocide. Biden is also opposed to keeping US nuclear warheads at
the Incirlik base.
It is clear then that Ankara prefers to deal with President
Trump and is afraid to confront Biden due to his hostile stances towards Turkey
recently, but some Turkish circles believe that there is no significant
difference between Trump and Biden, who knows Turkey well, as the differences
between the two countries will remain.
Bumpy path
Mustafa Salah, a researcher in international relations, told
the Reference that the importance of the current US elections is increasing for
several reasons, some of which relate to the circumstances surrounding these
elections, and others are the personalities of the candidates who have stirred
up controversy over the management of many regional and international files
that are related to the interests of the United States. In fact, there is no
difference between Trump and Biden regarding undermining Turkish policy, which
has become threatening to US interests. It is known that the US president, if
he wins a second term, will be more daring than his first term towards
resolving the files and this matter will become clearer for Trump if he wins.
As for Biden, he has clearly announced his strategy to confront Turkey and
change the ruling political regime there, and some have even called him the
Turkish opposition candidate.
Salah added that both Trump and Biden will seek to pursue a
more confrontational policy with Ankara, in contrast to US policy during
Trump's first term, which nevertheless witnessed many stages of tension and
disagreements, as well as the imposition of sanctions.
