Any U.S.-Turkey 'reset' under Biden will require tough Turkish concessions

Any chance of a reset in Turkish-American relations may depend on what happens during the transition between administrations should Democratic hopeful Joe Biden win Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election, said Nate Schenkkan, Director of Special Research at Freedom House, a U.S. government-funded think tank in Washington.

Depending on the election’s outcome, Americans will either wake up to a continuation of Donald Trump’s presidency or the starting phase of a new administration under Biden, a former vice president.

The rest of the world, meanwhile, is watching closely to see whether Trump’s disruptive foreign policy will end, and nations that have a stake in his presidency are carefully considering how a Biden win will affect them.

Turkey is among the countries that may have much to lose if Biden takes office. In light of this, there has been speculation as to whether or not Ankara can seek a fresh slate with a new administration.

“Say Biden wins, does Ankara use that period to conduct some outreach? Or does Ankara choose to go further on the principle they may not get a better chance to solve some of the issues they believe needs solving?” Schenkkan told Ahval’s Editor-in-Chief Yavuz Baydar in a podcast.

Trump has warm relations with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, despite a series of spats between their countries including Washington’s objections to Turkey’s purchased S-400 missile systems from Russia. Biden, on the other hand, has expressed a less-friendly policy towards the Turkish government and its actions at home and abroad.

However, there have been suggestions that Turkey sees a fresh slate with a Biden administration as possible. Schenkkan said that there is a common view in Washington that the relationship between Turkey and the U.S. is simply “too big to fail”.

Schenkkan said, in spite of this, he does not believe a reset will be possible without any concessions by Turkey nor that the Turkish government is seeking for one.

There may also be a desire in a Biden administration to distinguish its Turkey policy from its predecessor by standing its ground on issues that go against stated U.S. values, such as judicial independence. Schenkkan said Biden and Turkey will unlikely bridge these divides.

This is not to say there is no room for conciliatory actions by Turkey that could be viewed favourably in Washington, such as quietly rolling back the activation of its S-400 missile system. This and other similar acts could take place during Biden’s transition and set the tone for future relations.

“The opening moves of this administration start on Nov. 4,” said Schenkkan to Ahval. “They start with phone calls and actual policy measures taken by Ankara in order to indicate what kind of relationship they wish to have.”