Will Zawahiri's death bring about al-Qaeda's demise?

Al-Qaeda will not likely report the death of its leader Ayman al-Zawahiri soon, even as there are strong indications to his death.

However, the lack of an announcement on the part of the terrorist organization will increase confusion, both inside al-Qaeda and outside it.

A branch of al-Qaeda in Syria broke the news of Zawahiri's death recently.

The Guardians of Religion said the al-Qaeda leader had stopped contacting it for several weeks, expecting this to be caused by his death.

The group said the last thing Zawahiri asked it was to avoid a direct confrontation with Tahrir al-Sham.

The Guardians of Religion noted that Zawahiri might have died from liver cancer, a disease he suffered for a long time.

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Al-Qaeda is apparently not capable of controlling its different branches like it did in the past. The organization continues to be alive, thanks to the allegiance sworn to it by several terrorist groups and militias in the past years.

Nevertheless, in terms of central command, al-Qaeda is no longer in control over the actions of its different branches around the world.

According to a report by the United Nations in May this year, Zawahiri was last seen in February during a meeting with members of the Afghan guerrilla group, Haqqani Network, to discuss the peace agreement signed earlier by the United States and the Taliban.

Co-founder of the Search International Terrorist Entities Intelligence Group, widely known as Site, Rita Katz, wrote on Twitter that Zawahiri might have died of illness, even as al-Qaeda had not confirmed this.

Katz noted that al-Qaeda is always in the habit of hiding the death of its senior commanders. She mentioned the example of Hamza, a son of al-Qaeda founder Osama bin Laden. She said al-Qaeda did not declare Hamza's death, despite confirmations to this effect by U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper in August 2019.