Somalia fears increase in Al-Shabaab operations after expected US withdrawal

With the near completion of the withdrawal of US forces from Somalia by early 2021, that is, immediately before the departure of outgoing US President Donald Trump from power, the US Department of Defense announced that the president had decided to reposition the majority of personnel and military assets outside Somalia by early 2021.

A Pentagon statement on Friday, November 4, said, "Part of the forces may be redeployed outside East Africa," indicating that the rest of the forces will be transferred from Somalia to neighboring countries, with the aim of allowing cross-border operations by the United States and partner forces to keep pressure on violent extremist organizations.

The Pentagon stressed that the United States is not withdrawing from or abandoning Africa, stating, "We will continue to weaken violent extremist organizations that are likely to threaten our territory, pledging to preserve the ability to conduct targeted counterterrorism operations in Somalia."

Appeals to Biden

This decision had a wide resonance with Somali political circles, as some appealed to US President-elect Joe Biden to keep the American forces in Somalia after he assumes his duties on January 20, 2021.

For his part, Ayoub Ismail Yusuf, a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Somali Senate, said in a statement published by Reuters that the American decision to withdraw troops from Somalia at this critical stage of the successful fight against Al-Shabaab and its global terrorist network is extremely regrettable, adding that American forces made a huge contribution and had a great impact on the training and combat competence of Somali soldiers.

In the same regard, Colonel Ahmed Abdullah Sheikh, who was commander of the Somali special forces Danab Brigade for three years until 2019, said that if the American withdrawal was permanent, this would have huge repercussions on counterterrorism efforts, adding that the Somali forces oppose the withdrawal of their American counterparts.

He pointed out that the American program to increase the number of Danab forces to 3,000 people should have continued until 2027, but its fate is now unclear.

Somali-US partnership

Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed Farmaajo appeared to be pressing publicly against the US withdrawal, writing on Twitter in October that US support had enabled his government to effectively fight Al-Shabaab and secure the Horn of Africa.

"A victory can only be achieved through this trip and the Somali-American partnership through the ongoing security partnership and capacity building support," he added.

Trump had decided in November to reduce by half the US forces currently deployed in Afghanistan, which number approximately 4,500, and Washington also announced that the forces in Iraq would be reduced.

Acting US Defense Secretary Christopher Miller said the US withdrawal aims to end the generations-long war, referring to the fact that forces have been in Afghanistan since 2001 and Iraq since 2003.