Sudanese-Egyptian strong ties threaten Khartoum-Doha bilateral relations
The Qatari channel, Al-Jazeera, issued a
report on October 1, 2018, with a sarcastic tone about the Sudanese
government’s attitude towards the "Halayeb and Shalateen" triangle,
under the title "Al-Bashir stirs up the issue of Halaib and
Shalateen". The report said that the Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
tried - during a meeting with a delegation of “el-Bashareen tribes” - to please
the Sudanese voices which are calling for having Halaib and Shalateen under the
Sudanese sovereignty. He also tries not to disturb the Egyptian-Sudanese
relations, where he stressed that President Abdul-Fattah el-Sisi is keen on the
interest of the Sudanese people.
The report accused the Sudanese president of using the case as a pressure in
the local and regional issues. It also accused the Sudanese government of not
being serious in its complaint to the United Nations to demand a Sudanese
sovereignty over "Halaib and Shalateen", amid leaks that suggest that
Khartoum will withrow it’s complaint to prove good intentions towards Cairo.
We find that the report carried many gestures that indicate an impending
divorce between the Qatari-Sudanese relations and the return of warmth to
Egyptian-Sudanese relations after many decades of tension.
A different vision On the other hand, Sudanese parties considered that the
statements of President al-Bashir are not new.
Sudanese researcher and analyst Abbas Mohammed Saleh said that the relations between Egypt and Sudan were determined by two parallel tracks, the first track is the political; where relations stand at the level of official meetings between the heads of the two countries. The second track is the people welfare. The freedoms agreement signed between the two countries in 2005 benefited large sectors of citizens from the two countries and it showed much progress. This is highlighted by the volume of exchanges at the crossing borders between the two countries in recent months.
As for Al-Jazeera report, Saleh sees that it is not indicative of a possible deterioration in the Sudanese-Qatari relations, because the statements have nothing new, and because both parties have shared interests.
Swinging relationships
The Egyptian-Sudanese relations during 2017 and 2018 witnessed a fluctuation in attitudes and nature of the relationship between high tension and the noticeable improvement.
Egypt and Sudan witnessed tensions during 2017, but the tensions reached its peak in December 2017 and January 2018 following the visit of Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Sudan as Turkey announced it will rebuild a ruined Ottoman port city on Sudan’s Red Sea coast and construct a naval dock to maintain civilian and military vessels. Egypt considered this a threat to its national security, because Ankara is already hosting members of the Muslim a brotherhood terrorist group.
In February 2018, a meeting was held between the foreign ministers of the Egypt and Sudan and the heads of the intelligence services, which discussed a vision and a framework to bring back warm relations between the two sides and solve the outstanding problems. The most important issued discussed in the meeting was the Brotherhood in Sudan. This led Sudan to notify Muslim brotherhood leaders to leave its land.
The reasons for Egyptian rapprochement Sudanese
The year 2018 witnessed an Egyptian-Sudanese rapprochement in many situations. For example, during the visit of the Sisi president to the Sudan, the Halayeb and Shalatin cases were overshadowed by the two sides' talks in Khartoum.
The Egyptian-Sudanese relations witnessed closer relations in many situations in 2018. For example, during the visit of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to Sudan, in which Halaib and Shalateen issue were overshadowed during talks and they discussed development of bilateral relations.
The rapprochement between the two countries is important due to several reasons. During 2018, Horn of Africa witnessed political and strategic arrangements that were shown in the Ethiopian political openness to the neighboring countries, especially Eritrea and end border problems between them.
The recent arrangements were supported by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Recently, the city of Jeddah hosted a meeting where Eritrea and Ethiopia signed a peace agreement between Eritrea and Ethiopia.
Saudi Arabia has also worked to calm relations between Eritrea and Djibouti, so Khartoum may follow the tactic and gradually withdraw from its relations with Qatar and the move towards strengthening relations with Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
Dr. Ayman Shabana, head of the Nile Basin Studies Center at Cairo University, said that Sudanese foreign policy is always moving in a tactical, progressive and not strategic manner according to its interests. There is currently a general trend in the Horn of Africa towards strengthen relations with UAE and Saudi Arabia instead of Qatar.
Also since 197, Sudan has been facing US sanctions, which weaken its economy. But in October 2017, Washington lifted part of the sanctions imposed on Sudan after an interference from Saudi Arabia.
However, Washington kept Sudan in the list of countries that sponsor terrorism, which means that it will remain banned from receiving foreign aids and importing weapon. So, Sudan wants to get out of this list by improving relations with Egypt, UAE and Saudi Arabia to benefit from their good relationship with Washington.
Finally, the developments of the Horn of Africa, the Ethiopian-Eritrean relations, the Djibouti-Eritrean relations and the recent Egyptian-Sudanese relations, are causing anxiety for the Doha decision-makers, who for years has been convinced that the Horn of Africa is the backyard of Qatar’s policy.
