Years of Anger: Crises between Ankara and Washington during Biden era (Part 1)
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is in an unenviable position in the presence of his new American counterpart, John Biden, due to the criticisms made by the latter of the Turkish regime, which heralds difficult years that could destroy Erdogan's political future.
Between Washington’s hammer and Moscow’s anvil
The “Years of Anger” series discusses the expected crises
between Ankara and Washington during the Biden era, the first of which is the
Russian S-400 system that Ankara acquired from Moscow after the procurement of
Patriot air defense systems from the United States had faltered, which made the
US Congress approve the CAATSA sanctions against Turkey. While former US
President Donald Trump did not activate the sanctions, Biden may take effective
measures, especially as the Russian system threatens American F35 fighter jets
and harms NATO’s defense policies. Biden has assured that Turkey will pay the
price of buying the S-400s from Russia by March, which places Ankara between
Washington's hammer and Moscow's anvil, as it will not be easy for Erdogan to
bear the consequences of confronting Russian President Vladimir Putin if he
finds a solution that satisfies the new US administration.
The Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA)
was used to impose economic sanctions on Turkey, as happened with North Korea,
Iran and Russia, but Trump froze these sanctions and did not implement them.
Among the most important challenges facing Erdogan in the
coming stage is the issue of Halkbank, which is run by Turkey in New York and
is involved in violating US sanctions on Iran.
It is certain that Biden will not tolerate Erdogan as Trump
did, but he will allow the American judiciary to investigate the role of
Halkbank in violating US sanctions on Iran in the case due to be resumed on the
first of March, and possible sanctions may lead to great economic challenges
for Turkey.
It is worth noting that the US District Court for the
Southern District of New York filed a lawsuit against the bank for violating US
sanctions on Iran. The bank’s general manager, Hakan Atilla, was arrested and
spent nearly two years in US prisons. The case was postponed thanks to the
friendly relations between Erdogan and Trump.
Kurds in Syria
One of the most important issues that will bother Turkey is
the issue of the Kurds in Syria, if Washington continues to support the People’s
Protection Units (YPG) in Syria, as occurred during the administration of
former US President Barack Obama and continued during the period of Trump’s
rule. Washington has sent heavy weapons and ammunition to the YPG and trained
its elements, which caused tension between the United States and Turkey. Given
Biden’s statements, this support is likely to increase.
Tensions between Turkey and Greece
Also one of the most prominent files that constitute a
crisis between Ankara and Washington is the tension between Turkey and Greece
regarding exploration for natural gas in the eastern Mediterranean. The biggest
evidence of this was Biden’s position criticizing Turkey’s policy with Greece
and Cyprus when he was a senator.
Biden opposes Turkey's expansion plans in Syria, Iraq and
North Africa. He also accused Erdogan of fueling the conflict in the Caucasus,
and in early October he demanded Turkey to stay away from the conflict in the
Nagorno-Karabakh region, demanding that Ankara should be excluded from any diplomatic
efforts in the ongoing war between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Biden has also previously called for the United States to
consider the events of 1915 as a genocide of Armenians, which obliges Turkey to
pay compensation to the families of the victims, contrary to Trump, who
considered it a great disaster so as not to provoke Erdogan’s anger.
Also among the points of contention between the Turkish
regime and the new US administration is Biden’s demand to return the historic
Hagia Sophia into a museum visited by all as it was before being recently
turned into a mosque.
