Between concern and neglect: Conflicting US decisions in Africa

Between concern and neglect, Africa is experiencing a great deal of confusion in some of the decisions directed by the United States towards the continent, especially under the administration of President Joe Biden.

Biden's foreign policy

Since taking office on January 20, 2021, President Biden has presented an outline of the most prominent foreign policy challenges, with Iran, China and North Korea at the forefront, at a time when the fight against terrorism has come to Africa.

On Thursday, March 11, the US State Department included the two branches of ISIS in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Mozambique among the list of foreign terrorist organizations, while the strategy of Biden's administration to combat armed elements in Africa is shrouded in mystery.

The department also classified the leaders of the two branches as “specially classified global terrorists,” noting that “one of the consequences of these measures is to prohibit all property and interests of classified persons subject to US jurisdiction.”

Existing threat

Since the administration of former President Donald Trump decided to withdraw US forces from Somalia while the activities of these organizations still exist and pose a threat to US interests, African leaders have pinned many hopes on the Biden administration to reform what the Trump administration has corrupted in its neglect of the African continent.

In December 2020, Trump ordered the withdrawal of US forces from Somalia, which was completed in January 2021 when they moved to Kenya, although the US Africa Command (AFRICOM) warned about the resilience of al-Qaeda's Al-Shabaab movement and its ability to adapt to confronting US counterterrorism operations.

Current assessments regarding the Biden administration’s orientation towards the counterterrorism strategy in Africa indicate the existence of two scenarios. The first is that the Biden administration will adopt a different approach that preserves the US military presence in Africa to confront terrorist threats and not leave a security and strategic vacuum that allows Chinese and Russian influence to expand at the expense of American interests. In the second scenario, the Biden administration would continue to adopt the current approach of the Trump administration in combating terrorism, but with some adjustments to this strategy.

Good opportunity

Michael Shurkin, chief political scientist at the Rand Corporation, believes that Biden’s election as president of the United States may present a good opportunity to restore its relationship with Africa.

The determinants of Biden's policy towards Africa could be in the security and defense aspect, giving priority to the Horn of Africa, which has long been a strategic region and hosts the only permanent US base in Africa, and maintaining AFRICOM, which is the primary task in coordinating the numerous military programs already on the continent.

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in South Africa believes that the continent should not place its hopes on Biden to combat terrorism, given that the US president did not express a clear position on these issues, and that the anti-terrorism operation “must be led by African countries in the first place on their own and not to depend on global cooperation.”

The most optimistic preferences go to the Biden administration to reassure European and African allies and friends not to give up their support of counterterrorism efforts, as France has expressed great concern about withdrawing US forces from the continent or even withdrawing American support for counterterrorism efforts.

In February 2021, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin held talks with French Armed Forces Minister Florence Parly about the situation in the Sahel region, but he did not make any US commitment to the counterterrorism operation in the region.

“The secretary made no commitment...but he clearly expressed his gratitude for the work that France is doing in the fight against terrorism,” said Pentagon press secretary John Kirby.

In the Sahel, Washington is a key ally of the French Barkhane force, providing intelligence, drone reconnaissance, aerial refueling and logistical operations missions that total $45 million annually.

France considers that reducing the Pentagon’s operations in Africa will impede efforts against terrorist groups, especially in the Sahel region.

US security cooperation programs in Africa are essential to build the capacity of partner forces tasked with counterterrorism operations in the region, but after nearly two decades of ongoing deployments, the Pentagon is now struggling over how and where to reallocate resources, and Africa is not seen as necessary.

Border risk

Without high levels of Western assistance, including support for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, many security forces operating in the Sahel region face the risk of porous borders, mismanagement, and the spread of an illicit economy, which are structural factors that favor violent non-state actors.