Cavusoglu's statements: Beginning of thaw between Egypt and Turkey?

Following the strained relations between Egypt and Turkey over recent years, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu announced that his country has begun diplomatic contacts with Egypt, in the latest sign of developing relations.

Turkey is looking to restore relations with Egypt after years of hostility, in a move analysts say is part of a broader strategic shift in the face of Ankara’s growing isolation.

After a break of several years, Cavusoglu confirmed that diplomatic efforts are underway to repair relations for the first time since the suspension of relations in 2013 following the ouster of former Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi, who was a member of the Brotherhood, which is supported by Turkey.

 “We started our contacts with Egypt at the diplomatic level,” Cavusoglu told the official Turkish Anadolu Agency, adding, “We have contacts with Egypt at the level of intelligence or the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.”

He also said that “there is no reason to prevent improving relations with Saudi Arabia.”

In recent weeks, Turkish officials made a series of statements in which they flirted with Cairo and talked about the existence of strong ties between Cairo and Ankara.

“A new page can be opened in relations with Egypt and the Gulf states to help with regional peace and stability," Ibrahim Kalin, a spokesman for the Turkish presidency, said earlier this month.

The Turkish foreign minister said earlier in March that his country had signed an agreement with Egypt to demarcate the maritime borders.

Observers believe that these statements may be part of “inevitable reviews” that Ankara may resort to after experience has proven the failure of its policies of imposing fait accompli and interfering in the internal affairs of countries in the region, and then seek to compromise its surroundings, represented by Egypt, due to the wide influence it poses. Others have said that this step was not accompanied by real actions on the ground – just “political maneuvers.”

An American analysis of Turkish foreign relations revealed that Ankara has realized that the Brotherhood’s return to power has ended and that the group has become a thing of the past. Thus, the time has come to get rid of the legacy of this group, which had allied with Turkey since the Arab Spring for ideological goals and to restore relations with Egypt.

According to an analytical report by Voice of America (VOA), Egypt and Turkey are traditional allies, but relations have been in a deep stalemate since the fall of Morsi in 2013, when both countries withdrew their ambassadors.

The report pointed out that Ankara's support for the Brotherhood during the Arab Spring was central to largely ideological goals to highlight its influence in the Middle East by strengthening Islamic solidarity.

Analysts note that Erdogan is looking for a way to put this policy back on track. “It was a mistake to support the Brotherhood, but the [Turkish] government now realizes that the Brotherhood does not have the slightest chance to gain power again, so we cannot continue this policy,” said Huseyin Bagci of the Foreign Policy Institute (DPE), a think tank in Ankara.

Bagci added, “But how to get out of this wrong policy publicly is Erdogan's problem... Turkey cannot officially say that we will give up support for the Brotherhood... Erdogan will not say so officially. But perhaps he will slowly move from his official position of opposing the Egyptian president.”

According to the report, Turkey paid a heavy price to alienate Egypt. In a step that weakened Ankara, Cairo last year signed an agreement with Turkey's rival Greece for the development of the Mediterranean. Recent energy discoveries in the Mediterranean have sparked a series of territorial disputes between Greece and Turkey.

“Egypt is working against Turkey only because of Turkey's wrong policy based on faith, such as supporting the Brotherhood. When Turkey leaves this policy, I am sure that Turkish-Egyptian relations will be better,” said retired Turkish Admiral Cem Gurdeniz, a regional analyst.

Last Saturday, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar indicated that Ankara is about to realign with Cairo, saying, “We have many common historical and cultural values ​​with Egypt, and when they are used, we consider that there may be various developments in the coming days... and Turkey is looking forward to a Mediterranean agreement with Cairo to weaken Egyptian relations with Greece.”

In a related context, Turkish officials said at the beginning of this month that Ankara was ready to “open a new chapter” with Egypt and the Gulf states and to turn the page of the years-long dispute.

Yasin Aktay, deputy chairman of Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), said, “Whoever takes a step towards us, we take two steps,” commenting on Kalin’s statements to Bloomberg about his country's openness to dialogue with Egypt.

In statements to the official Turkish TRT Arabi channel, Aktay added, “Kalin’s statements came after statements and activities on the part of Egypt, which announced that it respects, and will announce its activities (meaning Egypt's activities for energy exploration in the eastern Mediterranean) according to, the Turkish demarcation.”

Aktay believes that Egypt's respect for Turkey's new maritime borders in the eastern Mediterranean “would be better for both parties,” but he admitted that “there are political and economic differences and difficulties between us. But this is something else. These are the interests of the two countries; they need not be related to each other.”

On February 18, Egypt announced the launch of the first global bid for oil and natural gas exploration for the year 2021, which will cover 24 exploration areas in the Gulf of Suez, Western Sahara, and the eastern and western Mediterranean.

The eastern Mediterranean region has lived in a state of tension since Turkey signed the Memorandum of Maritime Powers with the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Libya in November 2019.

Under the terms, Turkey has expanded its energy exploration activities in areas that Greece and Cyprus say are their own. At the time, Egypt objected to the agreement, saying it was illegal.

In return, Greece finalized an agreement with Egypt on August 6, 2020 to demarcate the maritime borders.