US withdrawal from Afghanistan: Possible causes and consequences (Part 1)

US President Joe Biden announced the complete withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan by September 11, 2021, ending 20 years of occupation following the attacks of September 11, 2001, after which former US President George W. Bush had declared the War on Terror, pushing the United States into the longest war in its history. 

The American decision to fully withdraw from Afghanistan confirms that the hierarchy of US priorities has changed, as Washington has become focused on its relationship with China and the conflict with Russia, leaving the Middle East. 

The material and human losses are the most important reasons for Biden's decision to withdraw, as the Interim Strategic Guide for National Security document published by the White House in early March confirmed that the United States should not participate in wars that cost thousands of lives and trillions of dollars indefinitely. 

The report recommended the need to leave Afghanistan in a responsible manner and work to end the longest war waged by the United States, while ensuring that it never again becomes a safe haven for terrorist attacks against the United States. 

The document affirmed that the primary goal of the war on Afghanistan was the elimination of al-Qaeda, and this has been achieved, but the Taliban have eluded a military solution because they are part of Afghan society that cannot be eliminated. 

The experts emphasized that Washington had wanted to make this decision long ago, but its military pride prevented it from withdrawing, as it is not correct for it to be unable to win and control a foreign country, in addition to its fear of terrorist groups taking control in the event of their rapid withdrawal from the country, which threatens the survival of the Afghan state. 

The American administration under George W. Bush had simple goals that did not go beyond revenge against the perpetrators of the attacks of September 11, 2001, and this was achieved within a few months, but then the goals increased to include empowering a democratic government that respects the rights of women and the rights of ethnic minorities, but it did not possess the tools or the means to ensure the achievement of these goals, especially in remote areas, which were controlled by people with suspicious ties to the Taliban. 

The American adventure in Afghanistan cost the US Treasury trillions of dollars and resulted in the deaths of more than 2,400 Americans, and about 20,660 soldiers were wounded during the fighting. But the numbers of American casualties dwindled compared to the loss of life among Afghan security forces and civilians, as more than 100,000 members of the Afghan security forces were killed, apart from civilian casualties; however, the war was not definitively resolved. 

American losses in Afghanistan prompted NATO to coordinate with the United States to withdraw from the country before the end of this year, which reflects the rapprochement between the two sides, opposite to the relations during the era of former US President Donald Trump. 

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin affirmed that his country would respond strongly to the Taliban and al-Qaeda if they attack coalition forces coinciding with or after the withdrawal.

Hence, Biden’s announcement came at a time when Foreign Minister Anthony Blinken and Defense Minister Lloyd Austin met with NATO partners in Brussels.

The American decision is a great defeat, as Washington has not fully achieved its goals, so the Taliban still has an active role. Also, Afghanistan is the first source of opium in the world, and the Afghan people suffer from poverty, ignorance and disease, while Afghan women are expected to lose all the gains they have achieved over the past years.

The Biden administration faces a historic challenge, as it is required to preserve Afghanistan, so as not to slide into chaos after the departure of the American forces, as happened in Iraq immediately after the US withdrawal there, which left it a fertile environment for terrorism, allowing ISIS to extend its influence over many areas of Iraq and Syria.

Harvard University researchers Michael Harsh and Taylor Witsel assert that Washington should follow the theory of the islands of stability in Afghanistan to prevent its slide into chaos through the limited rulers - who belong to a local majority group that is a national minority and thus possess limited escalatory political capacity - governing with longer time horizons and have an interest in concluding a social pact with their citizens, that is, long-term protection and public services in exchange for cooperation with the regional government. Therefore, they tend to improve security and basic services, so they must be supported, because they tend to rely on implicit social pacts that provide greater protection and opportunities for women and ethnic minorities compared to other regions. 

The Harvard University researchers called on the United States to focus on three areas: decentralization, long-term aid and prevention of external sabotage. Only then can Afghanistan not slide into chaos.