September 11 withdrawal: Will Taliban sever its ties with al-Qaeda?

The United States intends to perpetuate a new and completely different memory for September 11 this year with the withdrawal of its forces from Afghanistan, but this withdrawal is subject to an agreement that cuts the Taliban’s relationship with al-Qaeda.

Despite the decline in the power and luster of al-Qaeda compared to ISIS, al-Qaeda is still a dangerous group.

The danger from the continuing relationship of al-Qaeda with the Taliban movement consists of fears of re-targeting Western countries and launching international attacks from Afghanistan, which is the terrorist organization’s main approach.

Decline of al-Qaeda

International observers are concerned about the Taliban's failure to deal with US forces, as the US invasion of Afghanistan was mainly driven by a desire to overthrow the movement and al-Qaeda, which was enjoying its protection in Afghan territories after the attacks of September 11, 2001.

Although al-Qaeda’s power and ability to launch attacks in the West have decreased dramatically in recent years, the protection enjoyed by its leaders, who are believed to be hiding in Afghanistan, remains a source of concern.

In fact, if the Taliban truly distanced themselves from al-Qaeda, it is likely that Western countries and others would have a desire to cooperate with the Taliban to ensure that they would not return to their previous bad approach and encourage moderate elements in their ranks.

The Taliban faces a great challenge by losing its terrorist ally, but it also faces a strong opportunity to gain power in Afghanistan, where the movement wants to establish an Islamic state, while Washington only wants to ensure that it is not targeted, which may facilitate the opportunity for the Taliban to achieve its goal.

Analyses indicate that if the Taliban agreed to sever its relationship with al-Qaeda and commit not to harbor any terrorist group on its territory, then Western countries may turn a blind eye to some of the human rights issues they are demanding and contradict the rule that Taliban leaders want in order to end any potential danger towards them.

Agreement without guarantee

In the event that the Taliban agreed to sever its relationship with al-Qaeda and also pledge not to help another terrorist organization, this cannot be an agreement with guarantees, especially with the direction of the US policy to end its presence and reduce its interference in the Middle East.

Accordingly, it is possible that the returning Taliban government - after the agreement in the event of its completion and the American withdrawal - will not be satisfied with continuing that link again, but it could provide al-Qaeda a safe haven in Afghanistan again, as it did before September 11, 2001.

In this case, it is not expected that the United States will return to intervene in Afghanistan, as the George W. Bush administration had.

The most dangerous matter is that the Taliban are not content to host al-Qaeda, as it may give way to the Islamic Uzbekistan movement, which was launching its attacks from Afghanistan on areas in Central Asia.

With the presence of American forces in Afghanistan, countries such as Russia, Iran and China have relied on Washington’s commitment to bear the main burden of fighting the jihadist forces in Afghanistan that were threatening their interests, but the situation will change after the departure of American and Western forces.