Mohammad Javad Zarif: Presidency versus nuclear

Divisions appear from time to time within the Iranian regime regarding the desire to reach an agreement on the nuclear file, as the hardliners push for the failure of the negotiations currently underway in the Austrian capital Vienna, fearing for its candidates' chances of winning the presidency in the upcoming elections.

The reformists want to return to how things were before former US President Donald Trump withdrew from the 2015 agreement, when the movement was making its biggest political gains.

A leaked message published by Iranian media on Sunday showed that Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who is affiliated with the reformists, sought to barter with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei by removing his hand from pressure on negotiators in Vienna in exchange for Zarif withdrawing from the presidential race.

Message, which was sent a while ago according to a source close to the Iranian foreign minister, comes after Zarif’s recent rise in the opinion polls and the increase in supporters of his candidacy for the presidential election scheduled for June 18, while the hardliners’ pressure on the negotiating team increased so much that Zarif was forced to request help from Khamenei, because opponents of the nuclear deal created an atmosphere of betrayal for the current negotiating team in Vienna.

There is serious opposition to the Vienna negotiations among the hardliners, in conjunction with a media campaign to weaken the position of the diplomatic team and to show the failure of the talks to revive the nuclear agreement, as some hardliners believe that the success of the current negotiations in Vienna may harm the conservative movement in the presidential elections. Likewise, a positive outcome of the negotiations is likely to increase voter turnout, thereby reducing the hardliner candidate's fortunes.

Less than two months before the upcoming election, the reformist movement has not yet announced its candidate for the elections, and current President Hassan Rouhani is no longer entitled to run for office in accordance with the constitution, after he held the position for two consecutive terms.

The conservative movement’s candidate list is headed by former Revolutionary Guard militia leaders and hardliners close to the Supreme Leader, such as his military advisor General Hossein Dehghan, a former defense minister.

The reformists have spoken of two names as potential candidates: former President Mohammad Khatami and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, although the latter had previously announced his intention not to run.

In the middle of this month, a new round of nuclear talks began in Vienna, in negotiations that are considered the first after an attack targeting the Iranian Natanz uranium enrichment plant and Tehran's decision to raise the level of uranium enrichment to 60%.

The European signatories to the nuclear agreement with Iran said earlier that they “have seen progress in the first two rounds of negotiations, but there are still great obstacles that must be overcome.”

The talks will continue next week, as there is an American delegation elsewhere in Vienna, allowing representatives of the five powers to move between the two parties since Tehran has refused to hold direct talks.