Doha, Teheran attempting to reignite chaos in the Horn of Africa

Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed appears to be ushering the Horn of Africa into a new future. Speculations in this respect grew after Ahmed, who belongs to Oromo minority, initiated a wide programme of political and economic reforms at home. He also held out an olive branch to neighbouring countries of Eretria and Djibouti. However, Abiy’s peace initiatives appear to be running into obstacles manufactured by foreign capitals, namely Doha and Teheran.   

Soon after Ahmed was sworn in as the 15^th Prime Minister of Ethiopia, a deeper sigh of relief was heaved across the Horn of Africa when he expanded his successful initiatives to settle differences with Somalia. Also backed by major countries in the Middle East, such as UAE, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, Ahmed reinforced optimism in the region by pioneering negotiations to end the long-standing dispute between the two neighbouring countries, Eretria and Djibouti.

Nonetheless, interventions by the world’s major powers and Qatar in the region have discounted the breaking news on September 16 this year when the Ethiopian Prime Minister escorted by Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki signed a peace agreement in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.

Apparently rejecting UAE’s role in the Horn of Africa, Qatar unleashed manouvers, which have slowed down Abiy’s efforts to deepen stability in the region. Seeking to have a heavy presence in the region, Doha airlifted humanitarian and relief aid to Somalia’s famine-hit areas, which are under control of Jihadist and fundamentalist groups. Qatari rulers also intervened in the dispute between Eretria and Djibouti over Ras Demira in 2008 by deploying its troops on the border area to allegedly contain the restive situation between these two countries.  

Also exploiting its presence in Somalia, Doha did several attempts to hamper the Operation Decisive Storm launched by UAE and Saudi Arabia to restore legitimacy in Yemen. Al-Jazeera’s correspondent in Somalia, Fahd al-Yassin, was appointed  deputy chief of Somalia’s Intelligence agency.

According to the New Somalia website, al-Yassin’s appointment gave Al-Jazeera the signal to intensify its attack on the Ethiopian-Eritrean peace before it could attract the attention of different regional partners. According to Al-Jazeera’s allegations, the peace agreement is serving UAE’s interests in the region.

Somalia’s President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo became at the centre of heavy bombardment by social networks and websites controlled by Qatari rulers. Farmajo provoked the ire of Doha after accepting invitation to sit at the negotiating table with his Eritrean counterpart and Ethiopian Prime Minister.

Suspicions over Qatar’s hostile manouevers in the region grew further when the Somalia government lambasted Doha’s recalcitrance over  committing itself to the development programme signed in December last year and on October 12 this year. Reliable sources disclosed that Doha had sent a military team to Mogadishu to mount pressure on Somalia’s federal government to disengage itself from Ethiopia and the boycotting Arab Quartet. The visit came only two days after Dubai Ports operator DP World announced that it would develop a multi-purpose port project at Berbera.

The situation in the Horn of Africa was also influenced by two crises, which exploded in Ethiopia in August  and October this year. The first crisis grabbed headlines in the regional and local press when Abdi Mohammed Omar, a well-known politician from the country's eastern area,  led an unrest, which was, however, crushed quickly by the Ethiopian army. The second problem, which exploded in the face of the Ethiopian Prime Minister, was a protest staged by army soldiers over their alleged low salaries.

Growing concerns are warning that the developments in Ethiopia and in Somalia would have a negative impact on enormous efforts by Ethiopia and Eritrea to deepen long-sought stability and peace in the Horn of Africa. Reliable sources are also warning that Doha and Teheran are cooperating to reduce the region to a suitable environment for Jihadists and other militant groups to have strongholds. Teheran is accused of taking part in attempts by external powers to reignite chaos in the region. According to security reports, the Iranian regime is  helping Al-Shabab militant group in Somalia sell smuggled coal to finance their terrorist operations in the area.

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