International fears of Taliban advance on Chinese and Iranian borders

The Afghan authorities announced on Sunday, July 11, the operation of an air defense system to protect Kabul Airport, the only way out for foreign nationals, in a new indication of growing fears with the rapid advance of Taliban insurgents, the latest of which is embodied in India's evacuation of its consulate employees in Kandahar.

In light of the beginning of the permanent withdrawal of foreign forces from the country, the Taliban launched a large-scale attack at the beginning of May on Afghan forces, who were confused by the loss of the critical American air support, seizing vast areas of the country.

The Afghan forces no longer control except the main hubs and major provincial cities amid a siege imposed by the insurgents around many of them, and in light of the fear that they may attack Kabul or its airport in the foreseeable future.

The Taliban now controls several districts adjacent to the Afghan capital, within a range of no more than a hundred kilometers.

The Afghan Interior Ministry said in a statement that “the newly established air defense system went into operation at 02:00 a.m. this Sunday (21:30 Saturday GMT),” adding that “this system has proven its effectiveness around the world in repelling rocket and missile attacks.”

While the ministry did not clarify the name of the system, the date of its issuance, or the identity of the party who established it, ministry spokesman Tariq Arian told AFP that it was deployed at Kabul airport and only protects its facilities.

In turn, the spokesman for the Afghan security forces, Ajmal Omar Shinwari, revealed in a press conference that the system “was provided by our foreign friends. It is a very complex technology. Until now, our foreign friends continue to operate it until we gain the know-how.”

During the 20 years in Afghanistan, the US forces had provided their bases with several C-RAM systems capable of detecting and destroying missiles. A similar system is located at the huge Bagram air base 50 km north of Kabul, which was received by the Afghan forces at the beginning of July.

Evacuating diplomats

The Taliban has previously carried out a series of missile attacks on Afghan and foreign forces, and in 2020, ISIS launched a similar attack on Kabul.

Turkey had announced its commitment to ensuring the security of Kabul airport with the end of the expected withdrawal of US and foreign forces on August 31, while President Recep Tayyip Erdogan revealed on Friday that Ankara and Washington had agreed on “arrangements” for his country's forces to take over the airport.

In a reflection of the growing fears of clashes near Kandahar, India announced the evacuation of its staff from its consulate in the largest city in southern Afghanistan.

Kandahar Province, the historical stronghold of the Taliban, has been the scene of recent violent clashes. In the beginning of July, the rebels took over the district of Panjwai, 15 km from Kandahar city, and on Friday attacked a prison in its suburbs, although they were repelled.

“The Consulate General (in Kandahar) has not closed its doors. However, due to heavy fighting near Kandahar, its Indian staff have been evacuated for the time being,” the Indian Foreign Ministry said.

“It is a completely temporary measure until the situation stabilizes. The consulate continues to operate thanks to its local staff,” it added.

A security source in Kabul said that about 50 Indian embassy employees, including six diplomats, were evacuated from Kandahar without knowing if their final destination was the Afghan capital or New Delhi.

In recent days, Russia has also closed its consulate in Mazar-i-Sharif, the most prominent city in the province of Balkh, bordering Uzbekistan, in a decision taken against the background of the battles in northern Afghanistan.

Beijing also called on its citizens to leave the country and evacuated 210 of them at the beginning of July.

Shinwari tried to issue reassurances on Sunday, denying the Taliban's control of 85% of the country, as the group claims, statements that are impossible to verify independently.

“It is not true. The battles are continuing in most of the areas” that the Taliban claim to have seized, he said.

China

After capturing about a third of Afghanistan this summer, the Taliban this week reached the northeastern province of Badakhshan to the mountainous border with China's Xinjiang region, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Given the Taliban's historical ties to al-Qaeda-linked Uyghur armed groups in Xinjiang, this progress would have worried Beijing in the past. But these days, the Taliban are doing their best to assuage China's fears, and they are eager to ensure that Beijing acquiesces to its rule.

“The Taliban want to show goodwill to China,” said Qian Feng, head of research at the National Strategy Institute (NSI) of Tsinghua University in Beijing, adding, “They hope that China will play a more important role, especially after America withdraws its forces.”

With the US military withdrawal nearing completion, China's influence in the region is growing, in part through Beijing's strategic relationship with the Taliban's main backer, Pakistan. China has also become increasingly influential in the Central Asian countries bordering Afghanistan to the north. Conscious of Beijing's sentiments, all of these countries have long shied away from condemning the mass detention of Muslims in Xinjiang and other human rights abuses there.

While the Taliban has not been silent on the issue, it does strike a fine balance between its commitment to global Islamic causes and Beijing's conviction that the Taliban government in Kabul will not threaten China's stability.

“We care about the persecution of Muslims, whether in Palestine, Myanmar or China, and we care about the persecution of non-Muslims anywhere in the world,” a senior Taliban official said, adding, “What we will not do is interfere in China's internal affairs.”

Meanwhile, Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen noted that the Jamaat-e-Islami pledged in the February 2020 Doha agreement with Washington not to allow the country's territory to be used against other countries and not to accept any refugees or exiles outside the framework of international migration law.

The Taliban's relations with Uyghur militants, especially the East Turkistan Islamic Movement and its successor, the Turkistan Islamic Party, date back to the days when Osama bin Laden was stationed in Afghanistan, where he planned the September 11, 2001 attacks.

While many of these Uyghur fighters have relocated to Syria in recent years, a United Nations Security Council report last year estimated that about 500 members of the movement remain in Afghanistan, most of them in the Registan and Wurduj districts of Badakhshan province. Donald Trump’s administration last year removed the terror group's terrorist designation, angering Beijing.

China has used the presence of extremist groups such as the Turkistan Islamic Party to justify its crackdown in Xinjiang, including the imprisonment of more than a million Muslims in what it calls vocational training camps.

All districts of Badakhshan, except for the provincial capital, are now under Taliban control, with more than 1,000 government soldiers fleeing across the border into Tajikistan in recent days. This week, the Taliban took control of the northeastern Wakhan district of Badakhshan, which shares a 60-mile border with China. It is mostly high altitude and impassable terrain with no connected road across the border. However, the province's borders are porous, and via Tajikistan there are transit routes to Xinjiang - one of the reasons China has deployed troops to Tajikistan in recent years.