Belarus sends de-escalation signals on migrant crisis

Belarus and its state-owned airline moved on Monday to de-escalate a migrant standoff at the Polish border just as the EU moved forward on new sanctions against the country.

Early Monday, Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko said he was working to repatriate thousands of migrants now camped in freezing temperatures at the country’s Polish border. Belarus state airline Belavia also announced it would stop accepting travelers via Dubai from a number of Middle Eastern countries, and the Iraqi government said it was organizing a “voluntary” repatriation flight for its stranded citizens.

Taken together, the steps appear designed to defuse a potential powderkeg between Belarus and the EU — although the situation is far from resolved.

Even as Lukashenko said “active work is underway” to send migrants to their home country, he added a key caveat: “Nobody wants to go back.” And even if Belavia stops accepting travelers from the countries in question — the airline singled out Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Afghanistan — many other airlines, including several Russian operators, fly into Minsk. 

Lukashenko is accused of luring migrants from the Middle East and elsewhere to Belarus only to send them to the country’s border with the EU — a ploy the bloc’s leaders have dubbed a “hybrid attack.” The tactic has left several thousand migrants stuck at the border, deprived of consistent access to food and water, after Poland refused them entry.

The situation escalated in recent days when Lukashenko threatened to cut off gas to the EU in retaliation for the bloc’s expected penalties. On Saturday, however, Russian President Vladimir Putin — Lukashenko’s main ally — warned the Belarus leader not to take that step, perhaps setting the stage for the country’s backtrack on Monday. Poland has accused Putin of orchestrating the border standoff from afar.

Iraq will start its repatriation process on Thursday with its “first flight for those who wish to return voluntarily,” Iraqi foreign ministry spokesman Ahmed al-Sahaf told Iraqi television early Monday. Baghdad had identified 571 citizens stuck at the border who said they wanted to return, al-Sahaf added.

That leaves open the question of what happens to the other Iraqis, as well any citizens from other countries, now camped at the border. 

The EU on Monday cleared a key hurdle to pass new sanctions specifically targeting the Belarus migration scheme. The upcoming penalties aim to hit the airlines and officials moving people from their home countries to the Belarus-EU border, which also includes Lithuania and Latvia.

Yet while the punishments may help shut off the pipeline of migrants, they don’t address the pressing humanitarian crisis at the border itself. With temperatures dropping and aid organizations largely unable to get to the migrants’ campsite, human rights activists have warned that the situation could grow dire. Already, at least nine people have died in the harsh conditions.