Issued by CEMO Center - Paris
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Russia: Joe Biden prepares to send 8,500 troops to eastern Europe to prevent Ukraine invasion

Tuesday 25/January/2022 - 01:22 PM
The Reference
طباعة

President Biden is preparing to dispatch up to 8,500 troops to eastern Europe as he rallies Nato allies around a plan to deter Russia from invading Ukraine.

He spoke last night to European leaders and the Nato secretary-general in an urgent video call, his most prominent intervention yet in the fraught diplomatic response to the build-up of 127,000 Russian troops and weaponry along Ukraine’s borders. A sudden deployment of more Russian troops to Belarus, supposedly for military exercises next month, gives the Kremlin bases only a few hours’ drive from Ukraine’s capital.

The US troop deployment coincides with a reminder from Nato of its “deterrence” option, with member states preparing troops, warships and fighter planes in what would be the alliance’s largest deployment yet to eastern Europe. Amid fears that Germany was still wavering on some of the toughest measures, Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, joined an emergency meeting of EU foreign ministers to discuss likely sanctions in the event of a Russian invasion.

The American efforts were seeking to smooth over divisions highlighted inadvertently by Biden last week when he suggested that Nato allies would be split on how to respond to any Russian intervention that was short of an all-out invasion. Aiming to clarify Biden’s remarks, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the US ambassador to the UN, told reporters that Washington would act on any attempt to overthrow the government in Kiev, after intelligence warnings of a plot to install pro-Kremlin “puppets”.

She said: “We’re prepared to respond to whatever actions they take, whether it’s sending ‘little green men’ or sending cyberattacks into Ukraine or into our countries as they have done before.”

Jens Stoltenberg, the Nato secretary-general, sought to play down the alliance’s divisions. “Nato will continue to take all necessary measures to protect and defend all allies, including by reinforcing the eastern part of the alliance,” he said.

President Macron of France had muddied the waters last week with his suggestion of a separate EU dialogue. Germany has publicly wavered over tough sanctions on Russia and the future of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. It has refused to provide Ukraine with defensive weapons, even preventing Estonia from sending artillery manufactured in Germany.

Vitali Klitschko, Kiev’s mayor and a former world heavyweight boxing champion, accused Germany of “a betrayal of friends” in an article in the country’s bestselling newspaper, Bild.

“Many are asking themselves the question: where does the German government stand?” he wrote. “On the side of freedom and thereby on the side of Ukraine? Or on the side of the aggressor? We need clear signals from Europe’s most important country.”

Josep Borrell, the EU foreign policy chief, declined to follow the US and Britain in withdrawing some non- essential embassy staff and their families from Kiev, a move the Ukrainian government called “premature”.

Nato’s deterrence plan includes pledges of troops and equipment. Denmark will send a frigate and deploy F-16 warplanes to Lithuania; Spain is sending ships to the Black Sea and fighter jets to Bulgaria; and France is standing ready to send troops to Romania. The Netherlands plans to send two F-35 fighters to Bulgaria in April.

John Kirby, the Pentagon spokesman, said the “bulk” of up to 8,500 US troops placed on heightened alert were intended to bolster Nato’s quick- response force. “The United States has taken steps to heighten the readiness of its forces at home and abroad, so they are prepared to respond to a range of contingencies, including support to the Nato response force if it is activated,” Kirby said. The Nato Response Force “comprises around 40,000 multinational troops”, he added.

The Kremlin reacted angrily to news of the deployment, claiming it demonstrated that it was Nato, not Russia, that was behind escalating tensions. “All this is happening not because of what we, Russia, are doing,” Dmitri Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, told reporters. “This is happening because of what Nato, the US, are doing.”

Peskov warned, ominously, that the risk of an offensive by Ukrainian troops against pro-Russian separatists was “very high”, renewing fears that Moscow will seek to justify an attack on Ukraine by staging a “false flag” operation against its allies in the Donbas.

Tech ban to hurt Russia

President Biden is drawing up plans to hit Russia’s economy hard if it invades Ukraine with a ban on the export of semiconductors made or designed with American technology (David Charter writes).

Export controls extended to all countries that produce US-designed microchips would affect supplies of smartphones and video games as well as vital components for computers, aviation and the military. Known as the foreign direct product rule, the tactic has been used once before, against the Chinese tech giant Huawei, helping to cause a drop in its revenue of nearly 30 per cent last year.

Biden administration officials say that almost every semiconductor globally is made with US tools or designed with US software, and they could try to force companies in other countries to stop exporting these types of goods to Russia. The move is controversial because it could lead to Russia and other countries seeking long-term solutions to wean themselves off American technology.

“It’s like a magic power; you can only use it so many times before it starts to degrade,” said Robert Atkinson, president of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation think tank. One big risk is that China ignores the ban and offers to meet Russian shortfalls.

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