Game of interests: Turkey's gains and goals from mediation attempts between Russia and Ukraine

 Turkey is striving to mediate between Russia and Ukraine to stop the war between them and work to bring their views closer, as it has close political and economic relations with both countries, and it finds it a golden opportunity to improve its relations with the United States, the European Union and NATO by emphasizing the centrality of its role for European security and the importance of its position in the strategy of the United States and NATO to contain Russia, especially after the close rapprochement that occurred between them over the past ten years, to the extent that Ankara’s relationship with NATO soured and the alliance countries demanded its expulsion due to the contradiction of its policies.

Game of interests

The Turkish regime is trying to exploit its strategic location as it controls traffic to and from the Black Sea, which it shares borders with Russia, through the Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits. Turkey allows NATO ships to pass into the Black Sea and controls the Bosphorus Strait, which is Russia's main transit point towards the Mediterranean, and Turkey was Europe's first line of defense against Russian ambitions.

For these reasons, Ankara believes that its support for Ukraine undoubtedly leads to improving its relations with the United States and resolving its differences with it, foremost of which is the exclusion of Turkey from the F-35 fighter program due to its acquisition of the Russian S-400 defense system, so that it can complete a deal to purchase 40 new American F-16 fighters for $1.4 billion to counter the growing threat in the Black Sea from Russia.

Turkey is also trying to strengthen its relationship with Kyiv to be a claw on the border with Russia, as it enjoys close strategic relations with Ukraine at all levels, as the two countries agreed in 2011 to establish a high-level strategic council, and relations between the two countries were upgraded to the level of strategic partnership. The volume of trade between the two countries reached $7.4 billion in 2021, and the two countries plan to raise the volume of trade exchange between them to $10 billion.

Ukraine is one of the most prominent importers of Turkish drones and is also involved in its production. In addition to the manufacture of Bayraktar drones on Ukrainian soil, Ukraine produces engines for some Turkish drones, such as Akinci, through a joint company called Black Sea Shield specialized in aerospace industries, in order to design and develop new generations of long-range unmanned aircraft, in addition to the manufacture of missiles and radar and guidance systems.

Ukrainian companies are supplying engines to Turkey for its ATAK-2 combat helicopter, as well as laying the hull of the first modern Ukrainian frigate to be built in Turkey.

Difficult situation

At the same time, Turkey is trying to end the war between Russia and Ukraine as soon as possible so that circumstances do not force it to take sides, which will be the dependence of Ukraine and its Western allies as a member of NATO, leading to the collapse of its growing relations with Russia on the political, economic and military levels. Ankara has not publicly announced the party it supports in the current conflict between Moscow and Kyiv, but the Russian side and Western countries can later push it, through diplomatic tactics, to take a tougher and clearer position, especially since it was selling arms to Ukraine, and thus this Russian operation has become a complication for Turkish foreign relations.

The great crisis that Turkey may face lies in determining its position on Western sanctions against Moscow, as it shares economic interests with the latter, most notably in the energy fields, which makes it difficult for its options to stand either with Moscow or Kyiv and the West, especially since the Russian side is the largest energy supplier for Turkey. Turkey also depends to a large extent on Russian and Ukrainian tourists for its tourism sector, in addition to the presence of joint foreign files between Moscow and Ankara, including the Syrian and Libyan crisis and Mediterranean energy issues.

It is noteworthy that Turkey has close ties with Russia and Ukraine at the same time. In addition to its diplomatic relations with both countries, Ankara has common economic interests with Moscow and Kyiv, most notably in the fields of energy and foodstuffs. Last year, Ankara imported 80% of its wheat needs from Russia and Ukraine.

Turkey also relies heavily on Russian gas to meet its energy needs and is visited by a large number of Russian tourists annually. Russia is an important market for Turkish agricultural products, and Ankara has purchased the Russian S-400 defense system. In addition to the negative effects on its relations with Russia in conflict areas in the Middle East, Ankara may not be able to afford it.