New North Korean ballistic missile ‘poses nuclear threat to Seoul’

North Korea launched what is believed to be a short range, nuclear-capable ballistic missile that could threaten Seoul and the region’s American bases.

The test firing, the 12th this year, was launched on the eve of annual joint US and South Korean military exercises.

Pyongyang has denounced the nine-day exercises as rehearsals for an invasion. The US has already held naval drills with Japanese forces in the Sea of Japan, which the North said were a provocation.

The deliberately timed launch follows others that have included the first test flight of an intercontinental ballistic missile for five years. There are concerns that North Korea may be planning another nuclear test explosion. The last one on September 3, 2017 produced a yield estimated to be between 100 and 370 kilotons.

South Korea’s joint chiefs of staff said in a statement that two missile launches had been detected from North Korea’s eastern coastal town of Hamhung. The missiles flew about 68 miles, reaching an altitude of 16 miles at a maximum speed of Mach 4, four times the speed of sound.

North Korea’s official state news agency reported that Kim Jong-un, the country’s leader, watched the launch and said the missile had “great significance in drastically improving the firepower of the front line long-range artillery units, enhancing the efficiency in the operation of tactical nukes and diversification of their firepower missions”.

The agency did not elaborate but its use of the words “tactical nukes” suggested the weapon was capable of carrying a nuclear warhead that could hit strategic targets in South Korea, including US military installations.

The agency released a photograph showing Kim clapping his hands alongside military officers.

Pyongyang has previously claimed successful tests of other new missile systems which US intelligence agencies have subsequently downplayed. There was speculation, however, that the latest test could have involved a new version of the nuclear-capable KN-23 solid-fuel tactical ballistic weapon which can be manoeuvred in flight to evade missile defences.

Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said the flurry of tests and their purposes suggested the regime was moving beyond merely developing a nuclear “deterrent” and towards using its weapons to threaten.

 “North Korea is trying to deploy not only long-range nuclear missiles aimed at American cities but also tactical nuclear weapons to threaten Seoul and US bases in Asia,” he said. “Pyongyang’s purposes likely exceed deterrence and regime survival.

 “Like Russia employs the fear it could use tactical nukes, North Korea may want such weapons for political coercion, battlefield escalation and limiting the willingness of other countries to intervene in a conflict.”

South Korea said recently that it had detected signs the Pyongyang regime was rebuilding tunnels at a nuclear testing ground it partially dismantled weeks in 2018 before it entered now-dormant nuclear talks with the US.

A possible nuclear test by North Korea would involve a tactical nuclear warhead, Cheong Seong-Chang, an analyst at the private Sejong Institute in South Korea, said. He predicted that North Korea would push to mount a tactical nuclear warhead on the missile tested this weekend and deploy such nuclear missiles near the border.

Duyeon Kim, a senior analyst at the Centre for a New American Security in Washington, said: “North Korea has a domestic imperative to make and perfect weapons ordered by Kim last year regardless of what the US does or doesn’t do. The test also tells his people that their country is strong despite their apparent economic difficulties.”

South Korea said yesterday that its joint military exercises with the US would be based on “computer simulation” — rather than actual manoeuvres that could further inflame the situation.

The country’s navy was reported to have turned down an invitation to participate in exercises with the USS Abraham Lincolnaircraft carrier strike group in the Sea of Japan last week, such a force’s first visit in five years.

On Friday, Kim attended a civilian parade in Pyongyang that marked the 110th birthday of his state-founding grandfather, Kim Il Sung. The country appeared to have passed its most important national holiday without a highly anticipated military parade to showcase its new weapons systems.

Kim may still hold a military parade on April 25, the founding anniversary of North Korea’s army. If that anniversary goes without a military parade again, some experts say that might mean Kim doesn’t have new powerful missiles to display and his next provocative step could be a nuclear test.

The administration of President Biden has said the US is open to dialogue with North Korea but has maintained strict economic sanctions.

The 12th missile test by North Korea this year demonstrates, if nothing else, that President Biden’s attempts to adopt a diplomatic approach towards Pyongyang have yet to achieve any results (Michael Evans writes).

Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, has pursued an aggressive programme, claiming to have launched new systems posing a direct threat to the region and the United States.

The latest test of what appears to be a nuclear-capable tactical ballistic missile would add an extra capability to the multiple artillery systems that line the border with South Korea.

Washington has condemned all previous tests. Sanctions have been tightened in response to the launches as well as North Korea’s human rights violations. They seem to have had little effect on Kim’s determination to show Washington that he can still finance a military threat.

No US administration has found the right formula to press the North Korean regime into adopting a more conciliatory policy, let alone agree to denuclearise.

Barack Obama tried strategic patience, a low-key approach to encourage Pyongyang to consider ending its nuclear programme. Donald Trump took a more dramatic line, warning North Korea of annihilation if it dared to threaten the US and then launching a charm offensive with Kim, leading to two doomed summit meetings.

Under Biden’s administration there have been public and private diplomatic approaches but without any hint of a breakthrough.

The successive missile tests and the fear in Washington that North Korea might carry out another nuclear test may force Biden to consider a tougher sanctions policy or even a more dramatic attempt. A meeting, however, seems unlikely.

In the meantime, intelligence agencies must assess the satellite images of the latest missile test to see what new threat might be posed to the Korean peninsula.