Minya bus attack not likely to cause Daesh revival

The terrorist Daesh organization claimed responsibility for an attack on a bus carrying Christians as they returned from a visit to the St. Samuel Monastery near the central Egyptian province of Minya.

The attack left seven people dead and more than 13 others injured.

The striking thing, though, is that the claim of responsibility for the attack was so quick, bucking a traditional Daesh trend of issuing claims of responsibility days after attacks take place.

Daesh even refrained from issuing a claim of responsibility after some of the attacks it perpetrated, like in the case of the attack on the al-Rawda Mosque in Sinai’s village of Be’ir al-Abd in November last year. The attack left 300 town residents dead.

However, the speed with which the claim of responsibility came out in the case of the Minya bus attack was no surprise in the light of Daesh’s desire to prove that it is still alive, especially on the eve of the World Youth Forum in the Red Sea resort city of Sharm el-Sheikh.

There is a clear reawakening of the Egyptian security establishment, even as Daesh wanted to use the attack to prove the contrast.

Whether the latest attack will contribute to reviving Daesh is a question that will make it necessary for us to consider a number of issues to answer. We need to consider geography as well as the goal of the attack. We also need to consider the pace of Daesh attacks.

Geographic scope

The fact that the attack was carried out in Minya’s desert hinterland shows that it was staged by some of Daesh’s remnants in southern Egypt. The vestiges of the organization were led by escaping terrorist Amr Saad Abbas. It shows that this group of escaping Daesh elements, which mainly lives in some of the mountainous passes in the area, is capable of staging attacks.

Nonetheless, the ability of this group is limited. It only can carry out attacks on weak targets. The same group failed in breaking into the Mar Mina church in Helwan in December 2017, after policemen and ordinary foiled the attack.

The attack on the church was the last to be carried out by this group of Daesh elements before the November 2 attack on the bus of the Christians. This shows that it took the group ten months in order to stage another attack. This is yet new proof of the feeble abilities of the group.

The fact that the attack was perpetrated outside Sinai also reflects successes by the security establishment in defanging Daesh Sinai and destroying its infrastructure, thanks to the comprehensive Operation Sinai 2018 which kicked off in February this year.

Daesh last struck in Sinai on February 23, when it attacked a Border Guard camp. The commanders of the camp were inside it at the time of the attack. Nonetheless, the troops succeeded in sabotaging the attack and killing four Daesh militants.

Goal

A look at attacks by Daesh in 2017 and 2018 shows that the organization mainly aims at weak targets, compared with the military and police targets it aimed at in the past. This shows the declining power of the organization.

The arrest and killing of a large number of Daesh elements at the hands of policemen and army troops and also the lack of financial and technical support to the organization are all things that are leading to its weakening. This weakening shows why the organization only stages attacks against weak targets now.

The security establishment is also demonstrating skill and force in countering Daesh’s attacks. This is why the organization avoids direct confrontations with the members of this establishment.

In October 2017, Daesh tried to attack an army post in Qarm al-Qawadis in Sinai. Nevertheless, fighter jets were quick to take off and pound the trucks of the terrorists.

Pace

It is clear now that Daesh takes longer to stage another attack. The terrorist group was always keen on carrying out attacks on religious and national occasions. It is, however, totally incapable of doing this now. At the height of its strength, Daesh launched attacks on an almost weekly basis.

The terrorist group needed only three months to prepare for the next major attack. It attacked the St. Marqus Church in Abbassiya at the end of 2016. It staged the following attack on two churches in the coastal city of Alexandria and in the Nile Delta city of Tanta in April 2017. The three attacks left dozens of people dead and dozens of others injured.

It is apparent now that the organization needs ten months to prepare for the next major attack.

The attack on the bus carrying the Christian citizens is indication to the dangerous nature of Daesh presence in southern Egypt. Nonetheless, the same attack demonstrates a decline in Daesh’s abilities in general.