Significance of pledge of allegiance to new ‘caliph’ by ISIS branches
The provinces affiliated with ISIS have issued successive pledges of allegiance to the new “caliph” after the death of the previous caliph in October 2022. These pledges do not indicate a major change in the loyalties of the ISIS affiliates, their capabilities, or their regional influence. Two unofficial pro-ISIS groups also issued pledges of allegiance to the new caliph. Some affiliates may increase attacks in retaliation for the killing of the previous caliph, reflecting increases in terrorist activity following the change of leadership.
ISIS announced the killing of its caliph, Abu al-Hassan al-Quraishi, on November 30, 2022 and announced that his successor is Abu al-Hussein al-Quraishi. Local Syrian armed groups killed Abu al-Hassan al-Quraishi in mid-October in southwestern Syria. He had been the caliph of ISIS since March 2022. ISIS claimed that Abu al-Hussein al-Quraishi is a veteran jihadi but did not provide any additional information about him. This secrecy is typical of recent announcements of appointments to ISIS leadership. ISIS likely announced its successor in response to an anti-ISIS media channel claiming on November 29 that the caliph had died.
ISIS affiliates engaged in a campaign of allegiance to show support for the new ISIS caliph. ISIS members in Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Egyptian Sinai, India, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Mali, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Somalia, Syria, Tunisia and Yemen have pledged allegiance to the new ISIS caliph as of December 23. These pledges reaffirm the loyalty of ISIS affiliates after the death of the previous caliph, to whom each affiliate swore a personal oath. The pledge of allegiance is also an opportunity for ISIS to assure current and potential fighters that it is a unified and expanding global movement.
The pledges of allegiance from the Nigerian branch of ISIS confirm the growth of the organization’s networks in central Nigeria, where six branches of ISIS in West Africa (ISWAP) declared their allegiance to the new ISIS caliph since December 1. A new sub-group of ISWAP in central Nigeria pledged allegiance on December 5, shown through three photographs of 11 fighters published by the Amaq agency. This network is likely to be small and lacks access to weapons, as only one of the fighters is holding a gun, but no other weapons are shown. The central Nigeria branch was also the only sub-group of ISWAP to film their pledge of allegiance indoors, which may indicate that this group is not safe enough to congregate outdoors. The addition of a new group since the previous pledge of allegiance campaign in March highlights the growing presence of ISWAP in central Nigeria. ISWAP claimed its first attacks in central Nigeria in April 2022 and has carried out many attacks in the region since then. It was also responsible for plotting an attack in the Nigerian capital, Abuja, in late October. The allegiance of ISWAP from central Nigeria demonstrates its desire to highlight its expansion into new areas of that country.
ISIS pledges of allegiance from the Sahel and Mozambique reaffirm the organizational changes of these affiliate groups but do not show expansion. ISIS in Sahel (ISGS) and ISIS in Mozambique (IS-Mozambique) issued their pledges of allegiance for the first time after pledging allegiance as part of ISIS-affiliated groups in March 2022. ISIS recognized ISGS and IS-Mozambique as official and independent branches in March and May 2022, respectively. Prior to that, ISGS claimed the attacks and pledged allegiance to new leaders as part of ASWAP. Similarly, IS-Mozambique has reported attacks and pledged allegiance to it as part of ISIS Central Africa Province (ISCAP).
The first pledges of allegiance by ISGS confirm that it maintains its independent status from ASWAP. ISGS militants in the tri-border area between Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger pledged allegiance on December 3, and fighters stationed in Menaka, northeastern Mali, pledged allegiance on December 4. The photographs do not indicate a significant change in ISGS fighter numbers or weapons capabilities since March 2022. It is possible that ISGS will seek to formalize its presence in Menaka, but its allegiance in this area does not represent ISGS expansion into new areas. ISGS claimed regular attacks in this area in 2022 and has been sporadically active around Menaka since the group's formation.
IS-Mozambique pledged allegiance separately from ISCAP for the first time on December 6-7. This allegiance confirms its operational independence from ISCAP and shows the continuation of the area in which IS-Mozambique operates. The images taken on December 6 do not specify a location, but a set of images taken on December 7 indicate that IS-Mozambique fighters are based in Nangadi in northern Mozambique, which the group recently attacked.
The pro-ISIS militants in Tunisia and Lebanon pledged allegiance by demonstrating their ongoing relationship and connection to the broader ISIS network. ISIS has never recognized its affiliates in Tunisia or Lebanon as official ISIS affiliates, likely due to the inability of these groups to launch frequent or high-profile attacks. Fighters loyal to ISIS in Tunisia declared the pledge of allegiance to the new caliph on December 7. Tunisian fighters had announced their allegiance to ISIS in 2019. The photo published by Amaq shows four fighters in a room without weapons. The earlier pledge of allegiance in 2019 showed a relatively greater number of weapons and manpower in open spaces compared to the pledge of allegiance in December. It is not clear whether the individuals who pledged allegiance in 2022 belong to the same group as 2019. Tunisian operations against ISIS have significantly weakened the group in recent years.
Pro-ISIS fighters in Lebanon also pledged allegiance to the new caliph on December 8. The militants released three photos published by Amaq showing a total of 17 militants. Lebanon-based ISIS fighters have never participated in the pledge of allegiance, but ISIS has reported rare attacks in Lebanon in the past, most recently shooting at security forces in May 2019. It remains unclear whether the fighters who have now pledged allegiance participated in previous attacks in Lebanon or not. ISIS is unlikely to elevate groups in Tunisia or Lebanon to official subordination because of their continued lack of fighters, resources, and inability to attack. Published images of pledges of allegiance from Tunisia and Lebanon show that ISIS maintains a physical presence, albeit a small and disparate one, in these countries and highlights the desire of these fighters to remain connected to the larger ISIS movement.
ISIS may attempt to coordinate an attack campaign in its name to commemorate its late caliph, and some of its affiliate groups may escalate attacks. ISIS elements participated in an attack campaign in April 2022 to avenge the killing of the late caliph Abu Ibrahim al-Quraishi in March 2022, and ISIS elements may try to do so after the killing of Abu al-al-Hassan al-Quraishi. ISISIS increased its attack rate during its Spring offensive campaign compared to previous months, although the local dynamics and pre-existing goals of its affiliates likely contributed to this increase. ISIS may have timed the escalation of the April attacks to coincide with the holy month of Ramadan, during which the group had had escalated attacks in previous years. ISIS may delay the offensive campaign to avenge the killing of Abu al-al-Hassan al-Quraishi until Ramadan in March 2023, but this would mark an increase in the amount of time between the killing of a caliph and ISIS announcing a global attack campaign. ISIS was only about a month late after announcing the death of its caliph before announcing the offensive campaign in April 2022.
