Britain must be clearer who its friends and enemies are
As 2023 arrives, it is encouraging to hear the Government putting British national interest and security back at the heart of its foreign policy objectives, adopting a more realistic and pragmatic assessment of who our friends, competitors and enemies are. Given the military and economic dangers posed by Russia and China, but also the belligerent behaviour of Iran, this is timely. It is in this context that Britain’s relationship with the Gulf states must be reviewed.
Notwithstanding some self-indulgent Western criticism, Qatar has just hosted a highly successful football World Cup: 1.4 million fans visited the small, gas-rich state from across the world, while up to 4 billion global viewers watched the 64 matches. There was a huge and palpable sense of pride across the Gulf, the Middle East and North Africa that, for the first time, an Arab, Muslim country had staged this global sporting occasion.
Next door, not without some controversy, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia has embarked on a reform programme, astonishing in its ambition, while in UAE Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, the new President, is seeking to put the Emirates into a commanding technological position as they prepare to host COP 28. In Bahrain, home to the headquarters of the US 5th Fleet, and of Britain’s first permanent military base east of Suez since 1971, the new Prime Minister, Prince Salman, is seizing the opportunity to advance his own reform agenda, aimed at bridging the Suni-Shia sectarian divide.
The situation on the other side of the Gulf, in Iran, could not be in greater contrast. Here the ayatollahs are conducting a campaign of bloody repression against their own people. However, despite this internal dissent, the regime continues to pursue a costly nuclear programme that may have as its objective the acquisition of a nuclear weapons capability. This alone makes Iran a dangerous influence in the region, but the country also poses a threat through its use and financing of militias, largely drawn from its Arab, Shia co-religionists in neighbouring countries. In addition, Iran is unequivocally supportive of Putin’s Russia, and of his war in Ukraine.
This is where the interests of Britain and the Gulf States align. Reform is in the air across the region, despite having seen several false dawns, not least during the period of the so-called Arab Spring. Security is a prerequisite for stability, and only in a stable social, economic and political environment can reform thrive. Given the family nature of political power in the region, the social conservatism of Arab culture, the enduring influence of religious orthodoxy, and the manifold threats to their security, the Gulf states have proved to be commendable stewards of their wealth and deserving of our support for how they have managed a remarkable set of challenges, and the pace of change, in the last half century. Contrast that record of success with the political track-records of the neighbouring states of Iran, Iraq and Syria.
Oil and gas will remain vital to global energy requirements for some decades to come. Twenty percent of daily global consumption comes through the Strait of Hormuz, and 50 percent of all global oil and gas reserves are in the Middle East. That needs protecting. The wealth that these energy resources generate will also need to find a home. Some of it will stay in the region, some will be recycled through the remittances of the many millions of migrant workers whose lives are transformed by those payments, and much of it will be saved or invested in countries who share the ambitions and aspirations of the Gulf monarchies. Far better that it is the UK that are seen as honest and reliable partners and friends, than Beijing and China. It is in our own interest, and also for the good of the people in the region, that Britain, through its monarchy, its close economic and military ties, its championship of political and individual freedoms, the rule of law and property rights, should contribute to the security and stability of the Gulf in a manner that contributes to our own security and prosperity.
