Mutual interests and common issues: Implications of security agreement between Iran and Iraq

Only a few days have passed since Iran and Saudi Arabia signed an agreement to restore diplomatic relations between the two countries on March 10, after a seven-year break, until several speculations emerged about the repercussions of this agreement on some Arab countries in crisis, with Iraq coming at the top of the list. The first steps were taken between Tehran and Baghdad on March 19, as the two countries concluded a security agreement to enhance security on the shared borders between them and to repel any terrorist attacks.

Iran-Iraq agreement

Iraqi media reported that this agreement was signed by Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani and Iraqi National Security Adviser Qasim Al-Araji, in the presence of Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani, with the aim of enhancing security of the area bordering the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, which is inhabited by a Kurdish majority, whom the mullah regime accuses of carrying out acts of violence and riots that threaten the security and stability of the Iranian interior, which increased following the death of the 20-year-old Kurdish girl Mahsa Amini last September at the hands of the Iranian morality police.

On the one hand, a statement by the Iraqi Prime Minister’s Office revealed that this agreement also stipulated the consolidation of cooperation between the two countries in the security field, and Iraq undertook not to allow any armed elements or groups to use its lands to launch acts of violence or attacks on the borders with Iran.

On the other hand, the Iranian side revealed through Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian that the mullahs will not accept any threat from Iraqi territory, pointing out that this is the reason for Shamkhani's visit to Baghdad to put an end to the confrontation of what he described as “armed groups in northern Iraq,” revealing that this visit was scheduled four months ago.

Common cause

It is worth noting that the border issue has always been a focus between Iraq and Iran, especially since the latter had previously launched armed attacks with missiles and drones to target Kurdish groups in northern Iraq, the latest of which occurred in late September 2022. Tehran accuses these groups, which it classifies as terrorist, of fueling protests in Iran after the death of Mahsa Amini to spread chaos and riots inside the country.

Security report

Meanwhile, some Iraqi observers revealed that this is not an “agreement” in the usual sense, but rather a “security report”, and therefore it was conducted by Shamkhani and not by any of the leaders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. The Iranian regime's recent tendency to follow the option of negotiation and not escalation with some countries of the Arab region has prompted it to conclude new agreements with the countries of the region, provided that all parties adhere to them. At the same time, this Iranian approach is an attempt by the mullah regime to get out of the “state of suffocation” that has plagued it for years due to the American and European sanctions imposed on it.

Iranian control

Dr. Hanan Abdel Latif, the regional director of the Al-Rafidain Center for Justice and Human Rights, explained that this security agreement has no importance as long as the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Iranian intelligence services are present in Iraq and there is Iranian influence and advisors in every Iraqi ministry, in addition to a representative center of the Iranian Ministry of Oil in Iraq, which confirms the extent of Iranian hegemony over Iraq on all political, economic and security levels.

Abdel Latif stated in an exclusive statement to the Reference that this agreement came as a result of Iranian fears that America would use Iraq as a springboard for attacking its lands, and Shamkhani therefore called on Iraqi officials to stop activities threatening Iran's security by Kurdish elements and stop their use of Iraqi lands to threaten the Iranian interior. She added that the agreement also included the extradition of wanted persons, the enhancement of security cooperation, the facilitation of banking transactions, and the promotion of commercial exchanges, which is why the governor of the Central Bank of Iran was part of the delegation accompanying Shamkhani.

The Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), which has good relations with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, will work to implement all the conditions and laws stipulated in this agreement, because they are the most important arm of the mullah regime in Iraq, Abdel Latif said, adding that they will work to protect the common borders between Iran and Iraq, eliminate people who oppose their regime, and threaten American and Western interests in Iraq if necessary, especially since the PMF has influence and dominance over most of Iraq’s economic offices.