Is Somalia’s Sheikh Mohamud looking for the warmth of the Russian bear’s arms?

Ambiguity and question marks surround the sudden visit made by Somali Foreign Minister Abshir Omar Jama to Moscow several days ago, during which he held meetings with officials, headed by his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov.

Jama’s visit to the Russian capital opened the door to speculation about military cooperation between the two countries through Moscow providing Mogadishu with weapons and military equipment to help it in its war on terrorism, especially against Al-Shabaab, which poses a real threat to the security and stability of Somalia, in conjunction with the marred US-Somali relations, which threatens Washington's influence in the Horn of Africa.

Significance of the visit

Dr. Ahmed El-Anani, a researcher in international affairs, confirmed that the visit of the Somali foreign minister to Moscow reflects many signs, foremost of which is the desire of the Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud for rapprochement with Russia and to strengthen relations between them in an attempt to achieve the greatest amount of gains through cooperation with international powers, in addition to putting pressure on the United States by using the Moscow card, Washington’s traditional rival, for its continued support in the fight against terrorism.

Anani added that the attempts of the Russian-Somali rapprochement disturb the administration of US President Joe Biden, who has been trying since assuming the leadership of the United States to restore the direct military presence of his forces in Somalia, canceling the decision of former President Donald Trump to withdraw American forces from the country, so as not to leave the arena empty for the Russian presence in the region. This is vital for Western powers, especially in light of the Somali regime's tendency to enhance rapprochement with Russia and China at the expense of the West in an attempt to obtain broader military support that enhances the capabilities of the Somali forces in their war against the terrorist Al-Shabaab movement.

He emphasized that the biggest evidence that reinforces the American fears of losing its influence in favor of Russia is Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s announcement about Moscow's willingness to give Mogadishu military support to confront the growing terrorist threats by signing a joint cooperation agreement stipulating Russian military support for the Somali government and providing training programs for the Somali forces.

Somalia's position on the Russian-Ukrainian war

Anani added that Jama’s visit to Moscow reflects a change in Mogadishu's position on the Russian-Ukrainian war that has been raging since February 24, 2022, as Somalia was one of the first African countries to condemn the war in the United Nations General Assembly. But due to the difficulties and challenges faced by Sheikh Mohamud in his war against Al-Shabaab due to the weak ability of the security forces to maintain the newly liberated areas and achieve stability in them, the Somali president is seeking rapprochement with Russia, whether to obtain Moscow's support in the food file or to request Russian military support to enhance the capabilities of the Somali forces in the country’s war against terrorism.

Lying in the arms of the Russian bear

Anani confirmed that what drives Mogadishu to fall into the arms of the Russian bear is the restrictions imposed on it in arming its forces, which makes preference in the interest of terrorist movements, led by Al-Shabaab, so cooperation with Moscow is the best solution to confront this crisis, especially since it demanded on more than one occasion for the need to lift the embargo imposed on Somalia amid American and European rejection, which opens the door to concluding a deal to arm the Somali army in return for supporting Moscow's interests in the Horn of Africa and promoting rapprochement between the two sides.