Uncertain future for Kurdish-Arab ties in East of the Euphrates

Arab tribes East of the Euphrates are apparently being prepared to play some roles in the future. There are indications that Syria and Turkey, both with interests in reining in the Kurds, want to use these tribes to achieve this goal.

The members of the tribes make up most of the population in this region. This makes the mission of the Kurds and their American allies to control the region more challenging.

Attempts are now being made to weaken the grip of Syrian Democratic Forces, which are widely known by the acronym QSD, on the region.

QSD also has to deal with repeated attacks by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) on them. In the last few days, these attacks left dozens of QSD troops dead. Turkey continues, meanwhile, to bombard the region and threatens to stage a ground invasion of it.

The Syrian army is also reportedly preparing an attack on the oil wells area in the region in order to regain control on it.

The Syrian regime has its own allies in the East Euphrates region. These allies include a number of military brigades and tribes.

The East Euphrates contains tribes and families that back the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, according to Mohamed Farag Abulnour, a specialist in Syrian affairs.

"These allies did not play any role in changing the balance of power in favor of the regime in the past," Abulnour said. "Nevertheless, they will be effective in doing this in the future."

He told al-Marjie that the Syrian regime applies a smart approach in dealing with the Kurds.

In July and August, he said, the regime started negotiating with the Kurds.

"Regime representatives in the negotiations approved QSD's demands," he said.

He added that the Syrian government sent technical engineers to help the Kurds manage the administration of the region.

"The fact was that the regime infiltrated into the strongholds of the Kurds gradually," Abulnour said. "This helped it win the tribes living in the area to its side."

In May this year, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said QSD had to choose one of two options: either negotiations or face war.

Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem said in October that the Syrian government would not accept a Kurdish proposal for federal rule in Syria.

"This is a violation of the constitution," Muallem said. "They [the Kurds] have to pay the price for believing an American illusion."

Caught in the middle

Some of the oldest Arab tribes are based in the East Euphrates. They contain millions of members. They also control thousands of kilometers of land. This means that ensuring the loyalty of the tribes is important for deciding the future of the region. The presence of American troops in the region also makes military calculations a bit difficult.

The Arab tribes insisted to be represented in QSD at its formation in October 2015.

The Kurds were very keen to impose their control on all the factions and the militias that joined QSD, according to the North Syria Observatory. They did not allow Arabs to form militias, factions or brigades with more than 60 members.

The command of the brigade must also be Kurdish, the observatory said.

There are divisions among the Arab tribes in the region. Bakara Tribe oversaw the formation of QSD in October 2015. Youth members of the tribe are the backbone of QSD. However, in 2017, a tribe chieftain, namely Nawwaf al-Bashara, declared support to the regime, increasing divisions among the tribes. Some of the junior members of the tribe also joined militias that back the Syrian regime.

Relations between QSD and Bakara Tribe worsened after the force detained a military leader of the tribe. The observatory attributed the detention of the leader to his failure to return to QSD command center after battles with ISIS a few months ago.

US and the tribes

The US cannot be sidelined in the East Euphrates region because of its influence in it. There are fears, however, from the intentions of the Americans in the region. Assad had repeatedly warned the people of the region against trusting the Americans.

In recent days, some militias were formed to fight against the Americans and the Kurds together. The same militias describe American presence East of the Euphrates as a "military occupation" of the region.

The new militias write anti-American slogans on the walls and distribute anti-American propaganda.