Iran’s mullah regime facing unknown fate, deep rifts

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif stepped down on Monday, announcing his resignation on Instagram. However, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has not accepted his resignation yet.

Zarif's resignation came after a perceived snub Monday in which he was excluded from meetings between Iranian leaders and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on a rare visit to Tehran. Assad met with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani. Despite Zarif's retreat from the resignation, the incident in itself reveals a real crisis within the mullah regime.

A number of analysts noted that Zarif’s resignation via Instagram was aimed at embarrassing President Rouhani, citing that he attached a photo of a meeting between the Syrian President and Rouhani. That was a direct indication of a marginalization policy adopted by the mullah regime.

The analysts also said that Zarif used Instagram instead of instead of Twitter and Facebook as it is the most popular social media platform in Iran.

Instagram is not banned in Iran. Zarif wanted to convey a message to the Iranian man in the street. The analysis described Zarif’s Instagram resignation as an action of a highly experienced politician.

Zarif's resignation was driven by a number of factors. It was prompted by Iranian Supreme Leader’s deliberate marginalization of him, economic turmoil in the wake of sanctions and massive pressures on him due to his role in the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). The move can be explained as follows:

1.     The nuclear deal: We may say the US withdrawal from the nuclear agreement on May 18, 2018, was the last straw for the Rohani government at home and abroad. The Rouhani government had high hopes on the economic gains of the nuclear deal. However, after the US withdrawal, Iran retreated to square one.

1.The Rouhani government failed in improving the living standards of Iranians.

  2. Disagreement between hawks and doves: The hardliners in Iran comprise a number of organizations including the Guardian Council of the Constitution and the Expediency Discernment Council which are seeking to drop the nuclear deal, especially after the US withdrawal. The hardliners accused Zarif of giving compromises to the Europeans and the US under the administration of former US President «Barack Obama.

3. Rejection of FATF: Iran’s Expediency Discernment Council has rejected FATF, embarrassing Zarif before the international community.

Tehran-based researcher Farah al-Zaman Shawki said that Zarif’s resignation had confused the Europeans and could have led to the termination of the nuclear deal, citing that Zarif is a moderate diplomat with great openness.

The future of Rouhani cabinet

The Rouhani cabinet is expected to be negatively impacted. The move has revealed the depth of the Iranian political crisis as well as the failure of the Iranian regime to contain the conflicts at home.

Conclusion

We conclude that Zarif's resignation at this critical time forebodes that Iran will face growing pressures due to mistrust between the Europeans and the Rouhani government, especially after the Expediency Discernment Council rejected FATF, in exchange for financial alleviation launched by the European countries to soothe the US sanctions on Iran.