India and Pakistan, immortal war, complicated hatred
Thursday 07/March/2019 - 01:32 PM
Mahmoud Gamal Abdel-Aal
The world has
been on edge watching India and Pakistan’s latest escalation. For the first
time since 1971, India bombed mainland Pakistan. The strike was retaliation
after Jaish-e-Mohammed, a Pakistan-based terrorist group, supported a suicide
bombing in the disputed territory of Kashmir that killed at least 40 Indian
paramilitary soldiers.
The Reference reviews the crisis between India and Pakistan, in addition to the impact of the crisis, and its regional and international consequences, especially that Islamabad and New Delhi are active members at the Nuclear Club.
Military Escalation
The Pakistani-Indian border has witnessed a military escalation for the first time in decades, specifically in the disputed region of Kashmir. The Indian army announced that it had shot down a Pakistani fighter jet over the border between the two countries, while Islamabad acknowledged that its air defenses dropped two Indian fighter jets.
Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ spokesperson Rajesh Kumar has claimed the Pakistani plane that New Delhi shot down was part of a military operation to hit military facilities in India.
Meanwhile, Pakistan announced capturing an Indian pilot whose MiG fighter jet crashed in enemy territory after dogfight with a Pakistani JF-17.
After India demanded the release of the pilot before any ceasefire or talks, Pakistan's foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi said, “As a gesture of peace and to de-escalate matters, the Indian pilot who is under arrest with us will be released today in the afternoon at the Wagah border."
Prime Minister Imran Khan
International Stands on the Escalation
International and regional forces have agreed to avoid escalation between the two nuclear powers and to exercise maximum restraint in order to maintain stability in the region.
This has been demonstrated as follows:
Reasons to Avoid Escalation
World powers have rushed to reduce tension between the two countries, with an aim to stop any military escalation that could develop into a nuclear conflict in the region.
And it seems from the developments of the crisis itself that the two sides are ready for dialogue and peace to avoid any potential military escalation, which was clear in how officials of both countries responded; as Prime Minister Imran Khan called for calm, seeking mediation from regional and international forces such as Turkey and Russia.
India accuses the Pakistani army of supporting militant Islamic groups to use them as a tool to inflame the situation in Kashmir, and for its part, New Delhi has vowed to admit to restraint and to avoid letting things get out of control.
Tension must be reduced between India and Pakistan lest a nuclear war could start and negatively impact the international economy, especially that Indian and Pakistan represent around 20% of the world population.
Avoiding a Nuclear War
Observers deem any escalation between India and Pakistan as a threat that a nuclear war could emerge. In this view, we will address the deep religious, ideological and demographic differences between the two countries.
The imbalance in army and equipment between the two countries is a dangerous factor for a nuclear war, as India has a comparative advantage in term of the number of soldiers and their equipment.
Military analyses and research show that Islamabad would consider any war as a war to save its existence, the matter that would force it to use its nuclear weapons ultimately; this analysis is based on the opinion of a Pakistani diplomat who revealed that Pakistan possesses nuclear weapons in balance the situation in case India started a conventional military offense. This is why international powers rushed to reduce tension between the two countries.
Moreover, political and historical events show that India and Pakistan are acting in accordance with their economic interests and that using their nuclear weapons will not go beyond the idea of deterring, which means threatening to use of force against the other without actually using it, to prevent that party from carrying out actions that might threaten its interests.
Global Economy
In light of the current economic globalization and the growth of the global trade movement, the effects of any possible war between India and Pakistan could have exceeded their geographical limits.
The recent crisis has negatively impacted the international economy, especially in regards to trade, individuals and the global stock markets. Many airlines got interrupted in Europe, the Arabian Gulf, and Southeast Asia after Pakistan announced the closure of its airspace.
Europe’s major airports such as Munich, Charles de Gaulle, Brussels, Vienna, Stockholm and Copenhagen have witnessed chaos as a result of the decision to suspend flights in the region.
Also, UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan mediated to reduce the tension between the two sides to avoid any impact on the Gulf economy and the post-oil era in which the UAE and Qatar have been investing in for a long time.
Sheikh Mohammed made calls to both sides of the crisis, posted a number of Tweets in Urdu and Arabic to call on the two sides to tolerate and spare their countries from entering into uncalculated conflicts, which means that the Gulf region would be affected significantly in case any conflict sparked within the region.
Pakistan’s Economic Interest
Statements by the Pakistani Prime Minister indicated that Pakistan does not wish to enter any wars that would drain the economy of his country, especially that Pakistan has been trying since the latest parliamentary election to expand its international and regional alliances to overcome its financial crisis.
Also, China has pledged to Islamabad more than $60 billion in loans and investments in roads, ports, power stations and industrial parks to build China’s ambitious project known as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
Pakistan has also been negotiating with the International Monetary Fund for an $8 billion loan, and for sure, any military escalation with India would worsen the economic situation and disturb the Pakistani government’s economic plans.
Finally, India and Pakistan are among the most competitive Asian regional powers in the world, in conjunction with their growing military capabilities, but it is not expected that the escalation would reach direct military confrontation and war between both sides, because the cost would be unbearable, and because the balance of power is in favor of India, which ranks fourth among the world’s most powerful armies, compared to Pakistan, which ranks 13th.
