The Fall of Omar Hassan al-Bashir, the ‘Spider’ at the Heart of Sudan’s Web
President Omar Hassan al-Bashir loved to tell the story
about his broken tooth.
As a schoolboy working on a construction site, he told
supporters in January, he fell and broke the tooth while carrying a heavy load.
Instead of seeking treatment he rinsed his mouth with saltwater and kept
working.
Later, after he joined the army, he refused a silver tooth
implant because he wanted to remember his hardships. “This one,” he said, pointing
to a gap in his mouth, as supporters erupted into laughter.
The story was a way for Mr. al-Bashir, who was ousted
Thursday after 30 years of iron-fisted rule over Sudan, to play up his humble
origins — to show that he remained a man of the people who, like him, hailed
from dusty farming villages on the Nile.
The folksy image was a jarring contrast with Mr. al-Bashir’s
image in the West, where he was often seen as a heartless warmonger, as a
coddler of terrorists like Osama bin Laden and as the accused architect of a
genocidal purge in Darfur that killed hundreds of thousands of people. Since
2009, the International Criminal Court has sought to arrest him on war crimes
charges that include murder, rape and extermination.
But global notoriety was never much of a problem for Mr.
al-Bashir, 75, at home in Sudan, a vast African country with a long history of
war and suffering. He outwitted rivals who underestimated him, steered a
decade-long oil boom that swelled Sudan’s middle classes, and forged a network of
security forces and armed militias to fight his wars that some likened to a
spider’s web with Mr. al-Bashir at its center.
That carefully constructed edifice of power crumbled this
week as thousands of protesters massed outside his Khartoum residence, chanting
slogans and braving gunfire as rival gangs of soldiers exchanged fire. The oil
money was running low, the economy was in tatters and young Sudanese, in
particular, had had enough. The spider had to go.
“Just fall, that is all!” they chanted.
On Thursday morning, the military ousted him, ending his
30-year rule in the face of the sweeping demonstrations. It said it had taken
Mr. al-Bashir into custody, dissolved the government and suspended the
Constitution.
Representatives of the principal protest group, the Sudanese
Professionals’ Association, which had been expecting a statement from the
military and were preparing to negotiate a transition to civilian rule, greeted
the announcement with disappointment.
“What has been just stated is for us a coup, and it is not
acceptable,” said Sara Abdelgalil, a spokeswoman for the group. “Our request
for a civilian transitional government has been ignored.”
Born into a farming family in a dusty village 100 miles
north of Khartoum, the capital, Mr. al-Bashir served as a paratroop commander
in the army. In 1989, he headed an Islamist junta that ousted Prime Minister
Sadiq al-Mahdi in a bloodless coup, Sudan’s fourth military takeover since
independence in 1956.
For the first decade of his rule, though, Mr. al-Bashir, was
seen as a frontman for a more powerful force — the cleric Hassan al-Turabi, a
smooth-talking, Sorbonne-educated ideologue with sweeping ideas about embedding
Shariah law deep in Sudan’s diverse society and institutions.
International jihadists flocked to Sudan in that period,
among them Osama bin Laden, who bought a house in an upmarket Khartoum district
and invested in agriculture and construction. In 1993, the United States
blacklisted the Bashir government as an international sponsor of terrorism and
imposed sanctions four years later.
In 1999, after a falling-out, Mr. al-Bashir outmaneuvered
Mr. al-Turabi and cast him into prison. He turned back to the army to
underwrite his authority, forging relationships that spanned the military, the
security forces and the country’s tribal leadership.
Mr. al-Bashir assiduously attended the funerals and weddings
of military officers, often sending presents of sugar, tea or dried goods to
their families. He held an open house once a week where commissioned officers
could drop in and meet with him, said Alex de Waal, a professor at the Fletcher
School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, and an expert on Sudan.
“He’s like the spider at the center of the web — he could
pick up on the smallest tremor, then deftly use his personalized political
retail skills to manage the politics of the army,” he said.
Mr. al-Bashir used a similar approach to manage provincial
leaders and tribal chiefs, Mr. de Waal added. “Most of them became militarized
and enmeshed in one of the popular defense forces. He has that extraordinary
network, and it’s all in his head.”
That style of personalist autocracy was put to use in
battling the insurgency in southern Sudan, where rebels from different ethnic
groups with Christian or animist beliefs were fighting for independence. During
the 21-year war, the Sudanese air force dropped crude barrel bombs over remote
villages in the south and sided with vicious local militias recruited by Mr.
al-Bashir and his officers.
At the same time, Sudan discovered oil. After the first
barrels were pumped in 1999, living standards gradually rose in one of Africa’s
most desperately poor countries. New roads appeared, remote villages gained
water and electricity, and shiny buildings rose in Khartoum.
“Those were the fat years,” said Magdi el-Gizouli, an
analyst at the United States Institute of Peace.
In 2005, under international pressure, Mr. al-Bashir signed
a peace deal with the southern rebels, overcoming opposition from his
hard-liners who wanted to keep fighting. But by then another uprising had
erupted in western Darfur that would define his legacy.
There, a pro-government militia known as the Janjaweed cut a
bloody swath through remote villages, quelling an insurgency led by rebels. At
least 300,000 people are estimated to have died, and in 2009 the International
Criminal Court issued the first of two indictments against Mr. Bashir, who
became the first sitting head of state to be served with an arrest warrant by
the court.
“This was his biggest blunder,” Mr. el-Gizouli said. “He
outsourced the war to these militias, the Darfuri pastoralists. And he created
a massively bloated security establishment with competing structures.”
Mr. al-Bashir was charged with crimes that included murder,
rape, torture and extermination, and his villainous reputation was amplified by
campaigning celebrities like the actor George Clooney who denounced him as the
embodiment of a sectarian, ruthless regime. But predictions he would become “a
fugitive, a man on a wanted poster,” were only partially borne out.
Defying the court, Mr. al-Bashir traveled to Kenya, Egypt,
Nigeria and Saudi Arabia, although a visit to South Africa in 2015 was cut
short when a court considered whether to arrest him. Some experts criticized
the indictments as legally flawed and politically counterproductive.
Mr. al-Bashir portrayed himself as the victim of an
international witch hunt led by an ungrateful West. He complained that the
United States had reneged on its promises to lift sanctions in return for peace
in the south. Buoyed by oil wealth, he swept to victory in the 2010 election,
featuring posters that showed him standing proudly before new roads, dams and
factories — even if 40 percent of Sudan’s people remained below the poverty
line.
In 2011, South Sudan voted to secede, becoming an
independent country and taking with it three-quarters of Sudan’s oil reserves.
As revenues dried up, Sudan’s economy weakened badly, and Mr. al-Bashir started
to face serious opposition.
Armed riot police brutally suppressed street protests
against soaring food prices in September 2013, killing as many as 170 people,
according to Human Rights Watch. Torture and abuse in Sudan’s jails became
rampant, the group said.
Mr. al-Bashir reached wide into the region for funding and
support, often flitting between rivals in search of the best deal. In 2013, he
hosted the Iranian president at the time, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, in Khartoum, as
part of a putative courtship. Two years later, he joined an Arab alliance
fighting on one side of Yemen’s war, led by Iran’s archenemy Saudi Arabia.
Last year he pivoted from his traditional ally, Egypt, to
Ethiopia as part of a dispute over a giant hydroelectric dam that Ethiopia is
building on the Nile. In recent months, as more protests erupted, he turned to
Saudi Arabia’s Persian Gulf rival, Qatar, for help.
The lifting of American sanctions in 2017 might have helped
Mr. al-Bashir. But the State Department kept Sudan on its list of terrorism
sponsors, stymieing any influx of foreign investment. By 2018 Sudan’s economy
was in free-fall, with an inflation rate of 72 percent, long lines at fuel
stations and even a shortage of bank notes. The urban middle classes, dismayed
to see their living standards collapsing, revolted.
A protest against the soaring price of bread in Atbara on
Dec. 19 quickly spread to towns and cities across the country, in protests led
by doctors and other professionals. Public anger grew as young doctors, some
from wealthy families, were killed.
In January, Mr.
al-Bashir contemptuously dismissed the protesters, telling the “rats to go back
to their holes” and saying he would move aside only for another army officer,
or at the ballot box.
But on the whole his forces reacted with relative restraint,
killing dozens rather than hundreds of protesters. The demonstrations, often
wildcat affairs in different Khartoum neighborhoods, turned into a daily
occurrence.
On April 6, in their largest protest yet, demonstrators made
it to the gates of Mr. al-Bashir’s home at the headquarters of the Sudanese
army. The protest coincided with the anniversary of the 1985 uprising that
toppled the regime of another unpopular Sudanese leader, the dictator Gaafar
Nimeiry.
It was the start of the final push that lead to his ouster
on Thursday. His supposedly folksy touch had fully deserted him. The military
and security leaders he fostered for years told him it was time to leave.
Like many military rulers, Mr. al-Bashir liked to claim that
power had been foisted upon him, and that he wielded it reluctantly. “This
country does not encourage anyone to enjoy power,” he said after he seized
control in 1989. “This country is exhausted. It has collapsed and fallen.”
Critics say he left Sudan in much the same condition. Less
clear, though, is whether his successors can change it quickly. The tattered
economy needs a huge cash injection, and current conflicts in the Sudanese
regions of Blue Nile or South Kordofan are unlikely to abate. Past uprisings,
in the 1960s and 1980s, quickly saw a reversion to military control after a few
years of erratic civilian rule.
“People want change, but Sudan’s problems are structural,
not a matter of personality,” said Aly Mr. Verjee, an analyst at the United
States Institute of Peace. “Even with Bashir gone, Sudan will not be healed overnight.”