Al-Qaeda and Daesh … Paths and Mechanisms of Conflict on Leadership of Global Jihad
The dangers of Al-Qaeda caliphate are not less harmful than the
dangers of Daesh deteriorating caliphate. Al Qaeda, which failed to defeat the
West, is now seeking to acquire power through an extended caliphate to realize
its old goals.
The defeats suffered by the Al-Qaeda organization, which sees
itself as the origin of jihadist organizations, have pushed for its return as
an undisputed leader of the global jihad movement.
The name of al-Qaeda, which gradually disappeared
with the rise of the Islamic State (Daesh) since 2014, has returned to occupy
the extended space sought by Daesh to join its caliphate headquarters in Iraq. Al-Qaeda
is ushering into a new stage through which strategic features that seem to be
well thought out had been crystallized. Such stage has benefited from the entire
process of the organization, starting from the Afghan experience to the lessons
learned from the experiences of the Salafist jihadist spectrum and political
Islam. There are several indications that involve major changes in the global
jihad movement scene, which should be treated with analysis and research in
order to stand on the features necessary for reforming jihad in the world.
What are the features and bases of Al-Qaeda's
strategy to restore his leadership at the top of the global jihad movement?
What are the most important centers of influence? What distinguishes its
leaders? What are the factors that distinguish it from Daesh? How have the
policies of some countries supported their activities?
The study is keen to answer these questions and to
solve many of the problems associated with the exchanged rise and fall of
al-Qaeda and Daesh, while not forgetting the status of a general proposal that
includes the main lines of the plan to confront al-Qaeda, which is preparing to
return stronger than it was in the early days of its establishment.
Al-Qaeda: The Transformation of the Thirty Years
Al-Qaeda was founded on February 23, 1988 during a
meeting to merge the two networks of "Bin Laden and Jihad" attended
by jihadists from Kashmir, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Egypt.
The main feature of the establishment period is the
shift from the bilateral conflict between al-Qaeda and America to a war between
Muslims and infidels. This approach was crystallized during the golden period
of al-Qaeda from 1996 to September 2001, which culminated in the operations of
the major terrorist base in the depth of Europe and the United States,
especially the bombings of September 11, 2001. During that period, the first
methodical doctrine of al-Qaeda, primarily linked to the Afghan Taliban
movement, was formed and supported the authority of the Afghan emirate by
bringing loyalists and supporters from all over the world. This means making
the Afghan emirate a model of the Islamic state system, especially after the pledge
of allegiance by Osama bin Laden to its Emir el-Mullah Mohamed Omar.
This comes in line with inspiring foreign fighters
to train so that they can replicate the model in their countries while
maintaining organizational and methodological links with the center. Abu Musab
al-Suri, one of the most important al-Qaeda thinkers, describes this stage by
saying: "I am confident that the number of fighters who entered and exited
Afghanistan from the period between 1996 and 2001 amounts to thousands."
The boom was followed by the US-led war on al-Qaeda
after attacks against US targets in East Africa, off Yemen's coast in 2000, and
finally in Washington and New York in 2001.
The invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 and the
overthrow of the Taliban regime, coupled with the escape of al-Qaeda leaders
and members, prompted the organization to change its strategy to be like
guerilla war.
Then, the invasion of Iraq came in 2003 to serve as
a rescue for Al Qaeda, whose leaders found a typical mobilization center in the
heart of the Muslim and Arab world against US forces. Al-Qaeda's transformation
to decentralization was affected by two factors: its loss of influence at its main
hub, and developments in Iraq that have inspired its leaders to establish local
branches.
A new phase has begun, with al-Qaeda becoming a mere
inspiration, general reference, and an ideological umbrella that supports
jihadists morally and intellectually throughout the world.
The new strategy has achieved some successes,
provided effort and financial resources, and has given the organization some
flexibility in dealing with security challenges.
This independence has led the leaders of the
branches to the paths of rebellion and to seek independence from the organization.
The unbridled tendencies of independence began with Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and
did not end with him. He later caused the biggest problem facing al-Qaeda
today, which is the Islamic State group.
The violation of the visions of the leaders of
al-Qaeda planted the first seed for the establishment of the largest competitor
to the rule of Al Qaeda in the heart of the leadership stronghold of the global
jihad. The organization continued to try to exploit regional events to create
local centers around the world to compensate for the loss of control of its
stronghold in Afghanistan.
Daesh was inspired later by this strategy to deal
with its losses in its strongholds in Syria and Iraq. The conflict between
al-Qaeda and Daesh centered around the conflict over soft strategic centers all
over the world.
The third shift coincided with al-Qaeda's march with
the popular uprisings. The organization was careful to avoid the uprisings’ negative
effects while trying to invest in favor of it. Al-Qaeda sought at this stage to
use the anger of the people against the regimes to become at the forefront of
the revolution and whoever the public pushes for to make a difference on the
ground in the face of the security agencies.
Therefore, new expressions that were never used
before in the literature of al-Qaeda appeared like “The Management of the
Nation and Political Freedoms”. Ayman al-Zawahiri issued 11 speeches to the
revolutionaries in Egypt entitled "The Message of Hope to our People in
Egypt", which dealt in its entirety with linking the legitimacy of any
political system that might replace the old regimes with the extent of how it
goes in tandem with the will of the people and meets its demands.
Al-Qaeda's attention has been directed towards the
local community through attempts to gain community and tribal blocs, as
America's influence in the Middle East has declined since December 2010.
Zawahiri sent a letter to Atiyahtullah el-Libi,
directing him not to use words suggestive of "bragging and monopoly of achievement",
and to replace them with others that indicate "participation and concerted
efforts of the nation." The leader of al-Qaeda Organization in the Islamic
Maghreb, Abu Musab Abdel-Wadud, wrote to the leaders of the ruling group in
northern Mali, stressing the need to involve political forces, such as the
Azouad Arab movement and others.
He recommended the neutralization of opponents, the avoidance
of provocation and keenness on winning the allies and being flexible in dealing
with the reality, in addition to the need for gradual application of the Islamic
Shari’a law, condemning the demolition of shrines and the establishment of
religious rulings without taking into consideration the wrongdoings that result
from them.
Abu Musab al-Suri explains the new strategy by
saying, "Whoever gains the people wins the battle in the world of
guerrilla, because if the Mujahideen were isolated from the people and the
people were not convinced of their cause, nothing would happen." He added,
"You have to convince people that you used violence for legitimate
reasons, whether they were Muslims, or for rational, national, material or
welfare reasons if the situation was not related to Islam You have to make the
people feel that you are fighting for them.” Al Qaeda failed to try through
revolutions that turned into a curse after its development into civil wars.
The competition then started to be with Daesh to
find alternative centers of power that can compensate the losses suffered by Daesh
and Al-Qaeda after the limited control they had in Syria and Iraq. Al-Qaeda has
benefited from the international forces' focus on Daesh, and from Daesh’s practices
that promote brutality against minorities and local populations, which has
enabled al-Qaeda to consolidate its presence in the positions of Daesh.
This was clearly demonstrated in the methodology of
al-Qaeda's branches, especially the model of Ansar al-Sharia and Ansar al-Islam
in Yemen, Egypt and Libya before it declared itself dissolved in May 2017. This
took place with the vacuum left by regimes and institutions on the one hand and
Daesh’s bloody expansion approach on the other hand.
These branches have won the loyalty of the masses by
engaging in service and relief activities and in providing assistance. This had
led to al-Qaeda realizing during these transformations from its establishment
until the present day, an expansion in the field of confrontation, after it was
limited to Afghanistan and then Iraq.
Al Qaeda has turned from a small terrorist group
into a global network inspiring tens of thousands, penetrating the Middle East
and taking part in its events. The direct targeting of the West has passed with
the last operation carried out by Maj. Gen. Nidal Hassan in the US Army at the
instigation of the Yemeni-born base leader and US citizen Anwar al-Awlaki in
Texas in November 2009, killing 13 soldiers and injuring 43 others.
Nigerian al-Qaeda member Omar al-Farouq failed to
blow up the Northwest Airport flight from Amsterdam to Detroit in December 2009
as he failed to detonate the bomb. In the same year, the terrorist group failed
to carry out the bombing of the New York subway as Najibullah Zazi, an American
who has Afghani origin, was arrested before implementation.
This failure culminated in the death of Osama bin
Laden in May 2011, which was the most powerful strike to make al-Qaeda miss the
chances of exploiting a decline in US influence in the Middle East. This is the
plan developed by Washington through targeting al-Qaeda’s effective leaders with
planes without pilots.
Al-Qaeda resorted to marginalizing the enemy's
long-term strategy and engaging in the strategy of the near enemy, colliding
with Daesh which was building its caliphate on the ruins of the legacy of
al-Qaeda and the Arab regimes. This is evident from the overall releases and
nature of the organization's attitudes towards political events. Since 2011, it
has been trying to align itself with the peoples and to show itself as a
weighting factor in its struggle to overthrow regimes.
In response to a statement by Egyptian President
Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, saying: "The goals of terrorism must not be allowed
to be realized and to influence the morale of the people.", the
organization presents itself as a rebellion against the regime by saying, “What
does that have to do with the Egyptian people? Or do you mean the morale of
your soldiers whose weakness and cowardliness are evident.”
Al Qaeda is therefore attempting to expand its
influence by establishing a flexible caliphate stretching from Africa across
the Middle East to Asia, losing its ability to target the West.
On the other hand, Daesh resorts to inspire many of
its supporters to carry out attacks in the West and depict al-Qaeda as an
organization that ended its role in the global jihad. Al Qaeda is keen to
weaken its rival by containing dissidents and building itself amidst a
population that pleads for its support with a less extreme rhetoric about
civilians.
Al Qaeda leaders make the difference
Al-Qaeda's current leaders include the name of
Mukhtar Belmokhtar, who took over the Salafist region of the Sahara in the
Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC), the leader of the al-Qaeda
terrorist group in the Islamic Maghreb, and the founder of al-Mua’qi’oon Biddam
(Those who Sign with Blood) Brigade. He also enjoys wide field experience.
This comes in addition to the Egyptian officer who
was separated from the army's rangers Hisham al-Ashmawi, and was one of the
deputies in the Egyptian special forces with the testimony of who worked with
him. After his dissidence from the army, Al-Ashmawi formed an armed
organization, consisting of groups of fugitives, following the sit-in in Rabaa
al-Adawyia which was in support of the Muslim Brotherhood group.
Al-Ashmawi joined Ansar Bait al-Maqdis and led the
group's cells in the valley after the death of its leader, Muhammad al-Tukhi,
on March 11, 2014. He decided to open a confrontation front in Western Sahara
to ease pressure on the group in Sinai and Greater Cairo.
On June 1, 2014, his group clashed with an army
patrol in Farafra, killing five officers and soldiers. He then set up a camp in
the oases to start regular operations in Western Sahara. He attacked a border
guard unit in Farafra and killed all its members in July 2014.
He also participated in the assassination attempt on
former Interior Minister Major General Mohammed Ibrahim on September 5, 2013.
After raiding his home which was near the site of the attack, the security agencies
found data on his personal computer that indicate his involvement in the
operation.
Among the most prominent current al-Qaeda leaders is
Osama al-Hadawi, nicknamed Abu Muhammad al-Julani, the current leader of Hay’at
Tahrir el-Sham and former commander of the al-Nasra Front.
He was arrested after returning to Iraq in Boca
prison between 2006 and 2007 for his links with US forces during the occupation
of Iraq. He was responsible for securing roads inside Syria for fighters who
wanted to fight. After his release in 2008, he returned to the ranks of
al-Qaeda in Iraq led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who commissioned him to establish
el-Nusra Front in Syria in January 2012. Al-Julani rejected al-Baghdadi's adding
al-Nasra to al-Qaeda, revealing at the time his loyalty to al-Qaeda and his
pledge of allegiance to Al-Zawahiri.
Thus, the leaders of the Julani, Belmokhtar, and
Ashmawi share the secret of al-Qaeda's steadfastness throughout the years of
the rise of Daesh when the three of them led a path in opposition to Daesh’s
ambitions in annexing the most important wings of al-Qaeda in the world.
What had contributed to this is their subtlety and
ambition. Each of them wanted to become a pioneer of global jihad, not merely a
follower of Baghdadi's orders.
The three leaders struggled to maintain a
decentralized base that would allow the leaders of the factions to move
independently, so that Al-Qaeda's centers of influence in Syria, Egypt, Libya
and West Africa would not fall into the trap of the strict centralization of
Daesh.
What Abu-Mohamed al-Julani achieved in the face of
attempts by Daesh to annex Syria's branch was also achieved by Belmokhtar, who
deprived al-Baghdadi of North Africa's strategic space when he stood against
Abulayd al-Sahrawi's pledge of allegiance to Daesh.
That was also achieved by Hisham al-Ashmawi, when he
prevented the largest wing inside al-Qaeda in the Sinai from joining Daesh after
the pledge of allegiance by Ansar Bait al-Maqdis to Baghdadi in April 2014.
After the declaration of allegiance by the Ansar al-Bayt
Al-Quds group to Daesh on November 3, 2014, it was divided on itself. The group’s
Sinai wing was committed to a pledge of allegiance to Daesh while the valley's
cells split into two wings, one led by Ashraf Gharabli committed to the
allegiance to Daesh, and the second led by Hisham al-Ashmawi rejecting the
allegiance.
Al-Ashmawi appeared later, announcing the
establishment of a new organization called the "Almoravids",
confirming his allegiance to Al Qaeda.
Al-Ashmawi's rejection of a pledge of allegiance to
Daesh was not an appeal to al-Qaeda and Zawahiri, but to his ambition of
independence from direct leadership.
He also sought to benefit from the Egyptian jihadi
situation which is, of course, historically linked to Al-Zawahiri's experience
in Egypt, which he was keen to hint at through the nature of the literature he
used during his only audio release.
The conflict over the centers of
influence
Al-Qaeda
seeks to recover what Daesh has acquired, or to consolidate its influence in
the centers where Daesh has become a competitor, especially those that have
represented a vital area along the map of its activity, from Central and West
Africa to Southeast Asia.
The restoration of influence in Africa required the
steps taken by the central command of the organization in the west of the
continent; when pro-al-Qaeda organizations were incorporated under the title of
“Supports of Islam and Muslims” in March 2017.
It bases its strongest strongholds in northwestern
Syria, controlling much of Idlib province and the border crossing between Syria
and Turkey, the largest area that the
organization has domination over since the events of September 2001.
Al-Qaeda in Syria ostensibly abandoned its
ideological authority and its organizational affiliation with the parent
organization to achieve this level of success on the ground for its theoretical
theses by adopting a different approach from that of Daesh through betting on
flexibility of stances and keenness on partnership and popular embracement.
There is no effective control of al-Qaeda by Hay’at
Tahrir el-Sham on the strongholds, which is one of two wings of its strategy based
on handing over liberated areas to an independent civilian administration at
the same time when it is engaging in a guerrilla war against the regime.
The organization is facing challenges in the north
of Syria, especially the positions of its volatile regional allies, particularly
the Turkish ally, and the dissidence of elements of el-Nusra front after the
announcement of the breakout from al-Qaeda. However, what remains is relatively
fruitful.
Al-Qaeda is also keen to establish its footprints in
Nigeria and Mali, especially after attempts by Daesh to provide its existence
in these areas.
In January and February 2018, al-Qaeda also targeted
the operations of Boko haram which organized camps for displaced persons,
girls' schools or mosques, in conjunction with the announcement of Daesh
organization in the Sahara led by Adnan Abulwalid Sahrawi in January 2018 about
its responsibility for attacks against international forces and the Malian army
barracks.
They are attacks that aimed at expanding the
parallel influence to al-Qaeda's influence across the borders between Mali,
Niger and Burkina Faso.
Libya is a central link between these strategic
locations, which al-Qaeda has established as its command platform for global
jihad, extending from the Levant to Egypt to central and western Africa.
In the south of Libya, there is an additional
concentration under the supervision of the Tawarid leader Iyad Agha Ghali,
leader of Ansar al-Din, with the help of Mokhtar Belmokhtar.
In the city of Derna, east of Libya, there are factions led by
Hisham Ashmawi, and there are, in the vicinity of Benghazi east of the country
on the Mediterranean coast, several training centers for al-Qaeda.
The activities of Iyad Agha, Hisham Ashmawi and Mukhtar Belmokhtar
across these vast areas are akin to restoring al-Qaeda's dynamism and momentum
in northern Africa, creating a balance with Daesh parallel expansion in these
centers.
The two organizations are keen to control areas within Libya as
the heart of terrorist activity in the Middle East, both in terms of pumping
manpower, managing training, and supporting weapons and logistics.
Al-Qaeda in the Egyptian Sinai returned after a period of disappearance
during the years of the revival of Daesh starting from 2014.
Under the title "Soldiers of Islam,"
Al-Qaeda consists of the remnants of the Army of Islam in Gaza and the remnants
of the organization of Tawhid wel-Jihad, leading the competition against Daesh
through a systematic propaganda campaign.
Al-Qaeda continued to operate independently and in
coordination with other factions under the title of the "Free Islamic
Army" in central Sinai, which was a stronghold of the organization before
January 2011.
Al-Qaeda in Asia has been keen to maintain its
strongholds in Indonesia, which are divided between Jakarta, Burakarta, Bandung
and Central Java.
Al-Qaeda is trying to return to its glory in
Indonesia by strengthening its relationship with the organization of Jundallah,
a task that Omar al-Farouq tried to accomplish before being arrested.
The organization was linked to al-Qaeda in Spain by
Barlindongan Siregar, a member of the Spanish base, as well as al-Qaeda's cell
in Australia.
Al-Qaeda aims to reduce the impact of its setback after
many followers of Abu Bakr Bashir, the leader of the al-Qaeda-affiliated
Islamic Group, announced their allegiance to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
Al-Qaeda also seeks to deprive Daesh of the success
of its efforts to control the Asian front, which aims to support its activities
in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Al Qaeda has important strategic positions that Daesh
tries to compete with whether in both East Asia and the Middle East,
particularly those in the Maghreb and North Africa, or within traditional
al-Qaeda areas of influence like Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Al-Qaeda is also expanding its network from Northwest
Africa to South-East Asia following the defeat in Afghanistan, which led to its
expulsion and deprivation of training camps that it established on its soil.
Daesh is, meanwhile, trying to "clone" Al
Qaeda's strategy to escape defeat in the face of the Washington-led
international coalition through competing with al-Qaeda over its strongholds
and centers of influence around the world.
Factors beyond al-Qaeda
Al-Qaeda has given priority to empowering its
branches throughout the world with a view to controlling its local strongholds,
after realizing in an earlier stage the difficulty of targeting the interests
of Western countries and the United States.
Al-Qaeda is reaping the losses of Daesh which is
unable to formulate an alternative ideology that improves its relations with
minorities and civilians. While al-Qaeda is keen to improve its relations with
its societies, it presents itself as a force capable of unconventional change with
the use of force.
It is betting on what the political trend of Islam
is promoting regarding not trusting peaceful political practice and change
through elections. It is also betting on gaining the sympathy of popular
sectors that are angry at the political and economic turmoil, and therefore it
becomes active in targeting the symbols of the existing political system, the
security agencies and the army. Al-Qaeda targeted former Egyptian Interior
Minister Major General Mohamed Ibrahim in an assassination attempt in September
2013.
It also targets ambushes of armies, such as the
attack on the Nigerian army patrol on the Nigerian financial border on February
24, 2017, which killed 15 soldiers.
At the same time, al-Qaeda is keen on establishing good
relations with the population, as evidenced by the statement of the
organization that condemned Daesh attacks on worshipers at the mosque in
Al-Rawda in the city of Beer el-Abd in el-Arish, northern Sinai on November 24,
2017.
Al-Qaeda is exploiting the state of decline of Daesh
by expanding in a wide geographical scale, exploiting links with the components
of the local community and with independent armed jihadist groups.
Daesh does not have what qualifies it for such
relationships; since it imposed himself since the beginning of its establishment
as an overarching coalition that does not accept partners or the independence
of branches, and does not accept but the submission of everyone to the orders
of all its leaders.
Al-Qaeda has a privilege on several levels. The
first level is that it has a prudent foreign policy; it is inclined to send
assurances to the outside, pretending not to adopt expansionist projects.
So its branches continued to take what it takes to
prove that they are local movements that are biased towards the partnership,
even if this means declaring independence from its original stream. This is
evident in the practices of al-Qaeda branch in Syria, which sacrificed its
linkage to Daesh first then to al-Qaeda later, reaching partnership with local
trends under the name of “Hay’at Tahrir el-Sham”.
The second level is adopting flexible policies at
home to contain local entities, with a view to gaining support for the jihadist
project, and focusing on the course of confrontation with the regimes under the
slogan “Ending Injustice for the Oppressed and Establishing Religion”.
The third level is establishing balanced relations
with the other jihadist and Islamic factions, in order to benefit from the
alliance with them against common opponents.
This approach has been confirmed through its
application on many occasions. Abu Musab al-Sury has directed that the jihadist
communities should not be dragged into battles with the Islamic communities on
the backdrop of controversial doctrinal issues.
The fourth level is taking into account the reality
and not fighting battles greater than the capabilities of the organization, as
summarized by Atiyahtullah al-Libi’s directives, including “Avoid any Provocative
Acts for the Enemies”.
The fifth level is al-Qaeda's keenness on not appearing
as a seeker to have a monopoly of power and as an added attraction that allows the
expansion of the formation of local alliances. Al-Suri stressed the need to
enable the rest of the forces to participate in the management of control
areas.
The amendments introduced by Al-Qaeda to its
strategy in practice on the ground have given it the advantage of excelling
over Daesh. It has contributed to shortening the path to its objectives by ignoring
some of the adversaries, and focusing only on confronting the pillars of local
government.
Al-Qaeda,
therefore, has succeeded in preventing Daesh from controlling its main centers
of influence and preventing it from annexing its prominent leaders.
Policies that supported al-Qaeda
The terrorism practiced by Sunni armed groups has
weakened the positions of Arab states against Iran and has become impotent in
the face of Iran’s interference and the practices of Sunni militias.
The Iranian presence remained an obstacle for Arab
forces to make counterterrorism a priority, especially with Iran being given a
role in the fight against terrorism, which led to counterproductive results.
The absence of the traditional role of the Arab
states, at the expense of Iran and Turkey, has provided opportunities for
terrorist organizations to expand and recruit more fighters.
These forces planted the seeds of permanent
conflicts of an ideological and sectarian nature because Iran and Turkey rely
on proxies from the Sunni and Shia political Islam trend.
Regional powers are active in gaining influence by
controlling strategic positions in the Arab world, in strategic areas in
Africa, and on the Red Sea coast, giving extremist organizations presence and
power.
Therefore, Al-Qaeda organization divided the target
countries on two levels. The first is a cohesive state with a central authority
that controls the edges. The second is a country that lacks control over the
borders. This means the deterioration of the security and economic conditions
of the edges. This represents the go-ahead signal to control it by elements of
these organizations.
Along with political and geopolitical gains, Iran sought to civilizationally
outstrip Sunni Islam by glorifying Sunni elements, in exchange for polishing
its militias, to legitimize them, including the Iraqi militias, militias
affiliated to the Revolutionary Guards, the Houthis in Yemen, and the Afghan
and Pakistani Shia battalions.
Turkey and Qatar support the political and jihadist stream of
Islam with its variations with the aim of controlling the Arab decision,
through a caliphate run by the Muslim Brotherhood, backed by forces of Sunni
insurgent groups.
Ankara and Doha are not cooperating seriously with the
international community to form a united front to combat terrorism; their
interests in the Arab region are in conflict with their influence in the
regional environment.
Non-Arab regional states exploit the preoccupation of the Arab
states with the restoration of the Arab order, following the post-Arab Spring
chaos, to strengthen their influence in the African and Asian vital fields,
giving al-Qaeda the opportunity to rebuild itself and strongly supporting the
activities of these organizations in their current positions.
Suggested solutions
Armed groups are racing to gain the support of regional powers by
demonstrating their presence in strategic positions of primary concern to these
forces.
The ability of these organizations to recruit individuals is due
to their financial resources, given the economic suffering of the targeted states
along the map of the conflict.
Therefore, the advancement of the economies of these
countries - without being subject to the interests of forces carrying
expansionary projects with sectarian and ideological nature - remains the
primary requirement.
These organizations, particularly al-Qaeda, have
opportunities to exist in a climate of political instability, so the spring
revolutions represented for al-Qaeda a stage of revival, and it built on them the
strategy of their return.
Therefore, the main demand for hindering the new al-Qaeda
caliphate project was to support governments that nurture diversity and are
able to manage their differences without exploding to the point of civil
strife. This should take place with the need to foster dialogue between
existing, opponent, non-violent and unarmed regimes that do not adopt an
extremist ideology.
Thus, the Gulf countries and Egypt succeeded in
absorbing the developments that threatened the Arab presence by increasing the
influence of the non-Arab regional powers, which enabled them to withstand the
repercussions of the wars in the region. This served as an incentive to restore
the Arab system by playing an effective role in confronting armed organizations.
The dangers of having an Al-Qaeda caliphate are not less harmful
than the dangers of the deteriorating caliphate of Daesh. Al Qaeda, which
failed to defeat the West, is now seeking to acquire power through an extended caliphate
to realize its old goals.
As long as Daesh’s caliphate was dashed by security
and intelligence coordination between the countries of the region and the
world, security and intelligence cooperation can be the basis for undermining
the new al-Qaeda project, in order to limit the movement of individuals and the
transfer of funds and weapons.