Tough challenges: Future of the Daesh caliphate after Baghdadi

As a terrorist organization, Daesh is an exceptional case. This is particularly so given the capabilities of this organization compared to others, including al-Qaeda, known for long to have influence in all continents.

Daesh enjoys a strong organizational and administrative structure. It has massive military expertise. It succeeded in creating its own financial resources. Nonetheless, the organization's greatest success lies in that it managed to formulate an attractive ideological base that in most cases outrivals the ideological bases created by other terrorist organizations.

This ideological base gave Daesh the courage to declare a caliphate, a move no terrorist organization dared to take in the past. Daesh also promulgated Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi the caliph of its presumed caliphate after the capture of the northeastern Iraqi city of Mosul in June 2014 (1).

This was a decisive moment in the history of all extremist organizations, given the importance of the caliphate as a concept in the thinking of these organizations. This is why Baghdadi's death or arrest will have far-reaching effects on Daesh's unity and future prospects. For Daesh, Baghdadi is more than just a leader. Baghdadi's name is synonymous with the name of his organization, being its first leader. Swearing allegiance to Baghdadi is also synonymous to swearing allegiance to the organization itself.

This raises questions on the future of the Daesh caliphate in case Baghdadi disappears for one reason or another. He is the man to whom all Daesh-affiliated organizations everywhere in the world swore allegiance (2).

First, indicators to Baghdadi's looming end

On May 11, spokesman for the US-led coalition against Daesh, Rayan Dillon, announced the arrest of five senior leaders of the organization, including an aide of Baghdadi. This was a painful blow to the organization and also an indication that the Daesh caliph might be close to arrest.

One of the people arrested was Ismail al-Ethawi, a close associate of Baghdadi. He held a number of financial and security files within the organization. He was arrested in Turkey after escaping from Raqqa, the self-proclaimed capital of Daesh in Syria.

Ethawi's arrest can give investigators access to important information about Baghdadi, including the place where he might be hiding. This gives Pentagon officials feelings that Baghdadi's arrest can be imminent (3).

On the other hand, the tight siege imposed on Daesh and its leaders in both Iraq and Syria may lead coalition troops to Baghdadi's hideout. This is particularly so in the light of close collaboration between the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the security establishment in Iraq.

Daesh has been suffering a dearth of technical support from some states in the region in recent months. This made it easy for the CIA to eavesdrop on Daesh's communications (4).

The fact that some members of Daesh renewed allegiance to the organization and its leader on some of the media controlled by the organization shows that other members are not capable of renewing their allegiance. These members are dispersed in different places and have difficulty communicating with the mother organization to renew their allegiance to it. This shows that the broadcast of the allegiance of the aforementioned members was meant to mitigate the effects of Baghdadi's disappearance on the organization and other members for the time being, at least.

Second, critical timing

Daesh is, meanwhile, experiencing major transformations. The organization has already lost 98% of the territories it used to control. It is now present only in small pockets in Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor. It struggles to recapture some of the areas it used to control in the past (5). The organization tries to do this by depending on its sleeper cells in these areas. Nonetheless, fleeting attacks by the members of these cells are incapable of bringing the organization back to its past strengths in these areas.

Third, post-Baghdadi challenges

Baghdadi's disappearance will pose many challenges to his organization, given his importance. These challenges will be even more difficult in the light of the presence of many affiliates of the organization in different places. Here are some of these challenges:

Succession

Once Baghdadi is declared dead, or even arrested, his organization will quickly appoint a successor. Its members will also swear allegiance to the new leader. Nonetheless, reaching consensus on a new leader will be far from easy. Most of the leaders of affiliate organizations in other countries, including in Afghanistan, Yemen and Nigeria, will see themselves fit for commanding Daesh. Daesh's strength now lies in its affiliate organizations, not in the mother organization itself. The qualifications Daesh requires for its leadership, including the fact that the leader must hail from Quraish tribe, will not be easy for many of the leaders of the affiliate organizations to meet (6).

This means that the new caliph must be an Arab. This can open the door for conflicts between Daesh leaders and the leaders of its affiliate organizations around the world. This can turn Baghdadi's succession issue into a divisive one and consequently herald the end of Daesh's organizational unity.

Caliphate headquarters at center of conflict

Daesh's top post acquires its importance from Baghdadi's presence in it. This means that once the caliph disappears, Daesh might search for a new stronghold. The location of the new stronghold will depend on who will succeed Baghdadi at the top of the organization. However, the stronghold must be characterized by strong Daesh presence and weak security structure. It must also be easy to reach by Daesh fighters and recruits.

These are characteristics not easy to find. This means that some of the Daesh-affiliated organizations in Yemen; Libya; Nigeria, or Afghanistan, where some of these characteristics might be available, can have a say in deciding the new stronghold of the organization. This too can open the door for rivalry between these affiliated groups. Making this rivalry even more intense will be the perks that come with winning the Daesh stronghold status.

Collapse of the Daesh project

The Daesh project is strongly associated with Baghdadi himself, being the founder of the caliphate and its first caliph. He succeeded in putting his organization at the center of interest for all extremists around the world. These extremists considered him a caliph, not only of Daesh, but of all Muslims. This means that Baghdadi's arrest or killing will threaten the Daesh project as a whole. Baghdadi's death contradicts the main slogan of his organization, namely "lasting and expanding" (7). An organization that cannot protect its leader cannot either last or expand. In this case, many of those supporting Daesh or plan to support it will stay away from it after Baghdadi's disappearance for any reason. He is the ideological and spiritual leader of the organization. Daesh's appeal also fades away with its branches in Somalia, Libya and in southern Algeria losing strength. This means that Baghdadi's disappearance can be the beginning of the end for the organization.  

Intensifying intellectual war

An intellectual war has been intensifying against Daesh, especially by official institutions (8) and some Salafist movements. Nevertheless, the most dangerous war being waged against Daesh now is the one waged by main international jihadist theoreticians, especially those affiliated with al-Qaeda, including Abu Mohamed al-Maqdisi and Abu Qatada al-Filistini. Al-Filistini once described Daesh affiliates as "kharijites" and the "dogs of hell" (9).

Baghdadi's disappearance will open the door wide for yet more intellectual wars against his organization, especially from al-Qaeda, Daesh's archenemy. This can negatively affect Daesh's ability to draw in more recruits.

Organizational weakness  

Baghdadi's disappearance will most likely rock Daesh's organizational structure. This is particularly so with repeated blows against his organization and the defeats it sustains every now and then. For Daesh and its fighters, Baghdadi is literally the orbit. He is the symbol of the caliphate. His death will weaken the confidence Daesh members have in the organization. This will put the future of the organization and its affiliated groups in uncertainty.

The same weakening of the organization may encourage some of the affiliated groups, including those in countries like Somalia and the Philippines to break away from it (10). These organizations benefited nothing, either at the organizational or at the technical levels, from swearing allegiance to Daesh. There are people inside these groups who also call for disengaging from daesh. Swearing allegiance to Daesh, these people say, had caused many problems to these groups.

Morale collapse

Baghdadi is more than just a leader of Daesh. He is rather the symbol around which the world's extremists gather. To these extremists, Baghdadi is the symbol of the Islamic caliphate. This will make his death or arrest a shocking matter. It will also deeply shake the morale of the members of his organization, especially those fighting in Syria and Iraq.

Baghdadi's death or arrest can force many of these fighters to surrender and stop fighting. Other fighters might resort to staging suicide attacks to get rid of their organization's crisis. The collapse of the morale of Daesh fighters during battles with the Iraqi army in Mosul in 2015 forced many organization fighters to stage suicide attacks against Iraqi troops (11).

Daesh's wolves recede

Lone-wolf attacks had been an important Daesh tool in the past years. The attacks are launched by extremists who are not part of the organizational structure of the organization, but ideologically and intellectually affiliated to it. These people surmise the strategies of the organization by reading its statements. These Daesh wolves are morally connected with Baghdadi to whom they swore allegiance (12).

Baghdadi's death will mean the collapse of the caliphate for these people. This will undermine the ability of these wolves to launch attacks in the future.

Defections

Daesh was keen to expand its foreign influence since its emergence. The organization now has 17 provinces in different parts of the world. These provinces are places where groups that swore allegiance to the organization have control. Daesh makes it necessary for the organizations it accepts allegiance from to have strength and influence (13).

In April 2018, the Daesh command renewed allegiance to Baghdadi, probably expecting the crisis that will befall the organization in case the caliph disappeared. By renewing allegiance, groups making this have to obey the caliph and stick to him. Nonetheless, when the Daesh command renewed its allegiance to Baghdadi, it did not post a video showing all the affiliates of the organization doing the same (14).

To put it briefly, Baghdadi's disappearance will have far-reaching effects on Daesh. It will open the door for a large number of crises to befall the organization. These crises can put an end to Daesh's presence.

References

1 – Who is Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of the Islamic State – BBC News (http://www.bbc.com/arabic/middleeast/2014/06/140630_abu_bakr_al-baghdadi_profile)

2 – What the future holds for Daesh's branches after the organization's defeat in Syria and Iraq – al-Siyassa al-Dawlia (http://www.siyassa.org.eg/News/12084.aspx)

3 – Trump declares arrest of 5 senior Daesh leaders – Asharq al-Awsat newspaper (https://aawsat.com/home/article/1264801/%D8%AA%D8%B1%D9%85%D8%A8-%D9%8A%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%86-%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%AA%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%84-5-%D9%85%D9%86-%D9%83%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%A9-%C2%AB%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%B4%C2%BB)

4 – Advanced American and French communication devises found in Daesh site – Sputnik (https://arabic.sputniknews.com/arab_world/201806291033430460-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%AB%D9%88%D8%B1-%D8%A3%D8%AC%D9%87%D8%B2%D8%A9-%D8%A3%D9%85%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%83%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%88%D9%81%D8%B1%D9%86%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%85%D8%AA%D8%B7%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D9%85%D8%AE%D9%84%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%B4-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D8%AE%D9%86%D8%A9/)

5 – Daesh lost 98% of its territories: US-led coalition – al-Mayadeen (http://www.almayadeen.net/latestnews/2018/2/5/857291/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82--%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%B1%D9%83%D9%8A--%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%B4-%D9%81%D9%82%D8%AF-%D9%85%D8%A7-%D9%8A%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A8-98---%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%B6%D9%8A)

6 – What after Raqqa: Where will Daesh's new capital be? – Future for Advanced Research and Studies (https://futureuae.com/ar-AE/Mainpage/Item/2654/%D9%85%D8%A7-%D8%A8%D8%B9%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B1%D9%82%D8%A9-%D8%A3%D9%8A%D9%86-%D8%AA%D9%83%D9%88%D9%86-%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%B5%D9%85%D8%A9-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%B4-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D9%82%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%85)

7 – Daesh lasting and expanding or inevitably disappearing? – al-Arabiya.net (https://www.alarabiya.net/ar/politics/2014/06/28/-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%B4-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%82%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%88%D8%AA%D8%AA%D9%85%D8%AF%D8%AF-%D8%A3%D9%85-%D8%B2%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%84%D8%A9-%D9%84%D8%A7-%D9%85%D8%AD%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A9%D8%9F.html)

8 – al-Azhar: Daesh kharijites who must be killed – Assakina.com (https://www.assakina.com/news/news2/70075.html)

9 – Abu Mohamed al-Maqdisi: Daesh a deviating group that contains kharijites – Annahar.com (https://www.annahar.com/article/136781-%D8%A3%D8%A8%D9%88-%D9%85%D8%AD%D9%85%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%82%D8%AF%D8%B3%D9%8A-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%B4-%D9%85%D9%86%D8%AD%D8%B1%D9%81%D8%A9-%D9%88%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%B5%D9%81%D9%88%D9%81%D9%87%D8%A7-%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%AC)

10 – Counter moves: Daesh's external machines to counter its weaknesses - Future for Advanced Research and Studies (https://futureuae.com/ar/Mainpage/Item/3314/%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%B1%D9%83%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%85%D8%B6%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D8%A2%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%B4-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%AC%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%84%D9%85%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AC%D9%87%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AC%D8%B9-%D9%86%D8%B4%D8%A7%D8%B7%D9%87)

11 – Daesh's remnants in Iraq – Asharq al-Awsat newspaper (https://aawsat.com/home/article/1321351/%C2%AB%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%BA%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B3%D9%8A%D9%88%D9%86%C2%BB-%D8%A8%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%8A%D8%A7-%C2%AB%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%B4%C2%BB-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82)

12 – How lone-wolves are different from terrorist groups - Future for Advanced Research and Studies (http://rawabetcenter.com/archives/31691)

13 – Future of jihadist groups in Syria after conflict settlement – al-Siyassa al-Sawlia (http://www.siyassa.org.eg/News/13142.aspx)

14 – Multiple motivations: Reasons why Daesh members renew allegiance to Baghdadi - Future for Advanced Research and Studies (https://futureuae.com/ar-AE/Mainpage/Item/3847/%D8%AF%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%81%D8%B9-%D9%85%D8%AA%D8%B9%D8%AF%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D8%A3%D8%B3%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%A8-%D8%AA%D8%AC%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%AF-%D9%85%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%8A%D8%B9%D8%A9-%D8%B9%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B5%D8%B1-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%B4-%D9%84%D9%84%D8%A8%D8%BA%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%8A)

Ali Bakr is an expert in extremist movements.