Erdogan moves militarily in Middle East to fulfill Ottoman delusions

In recent years, Turkish military intervention has emerged directly in a number of Middle Eastern countries, to the point that Ankara is conducting military actions in three Arab countries at the same time, in blatant disregard by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of the negative repercussions of his aggressive actions and the impact on his country’s relations with Arab countries.

Major shift

The Turkish military interventions represent a major shift in Ankara’s foreign policies, which previously relied on the policy of removing problems with neighboring countries during the reign of former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, whose policy was mainly aimed at supporting the Turkish economy by avoiding escalation with any neighboring countries regarding disputed issues. Davutoglu believed that improving the economic situation and increasing citizens’ incomes is the best way to support the Justice and Development Party (AKP) remain in power for as long as possible.

Neutralize the army

Davutoglu’s policy also aimed indirectly at neutralizing the army's role in politics, because escalating military conflicts within any country makes political decisions hostage to the military, given that all decisions are taken from a security perspective. Moreover, in the event that it fails to achieve its goals, foreign military intervention could then weaken and possibly overthrow the existing political regime.

But after the unsuccessful coup attempt in 2016, the AKP adopted a package of constitutional amendments that transformed the parliamentary system into a presidential one, giving the head of state broad powers. This enabled Erdogan to depose several army leaders, which helped the AKP firmly extend its hand over the country’s security establishment.

Later, the Turkish army invaded northern Syria under the pretext of confronting armed Kurdish groups that Ankara classifies as terrorist organizations. Then, in November 2019, Turkey signed a security agreement with Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA), after which Turkish forces were directly dispatched to support the GNA against the Libyan National Army (LNA), contributing to increased tensions between Turkey and a number of European countries that refuse to have a Turkish presence in the southern Mediterranean.

Turkey’s military interference in Libya is considered major, because it is the first time since the AKP came to power in 2002 that Turkey participates in a battle as a major party somewhere not adjacent to it geographically, primarily seeking only to achieve economic goals. This shows the AKP’s effectiveness in transforming the military establishment for exploitation prior to sending it abroad for economic benefits. Moreover, the use of military forces outside Turkish borders is an indication of its growing strength and aggressiveness, which has caused Turkish-Arab relations to be strained.

Motives for sudden transformation

There is no doubt that the fundamental shift in Turkish foreign policy was linked to the Arab Spring revolutions that invaded the region in 2011, toppling a number of regimes in North Africa. This caused a security vacuum, which has led to an increase in terrorist acts in the region. Because the region is characterized by a state of political and security instability, Ankara has attempted to use all its military and diplomatic tools in order to contribute to reshaping the region in a way that serves its own interests.

Ankara’s recent policy of direct military interference stems from a number of motives:

1- Failure of hidden support: Since the armed conflict began in Syria, Turkey has supported armed organizations opposed to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime with money and arms, as well as media and diplomatic support, but it has failed to achieve its goal of bringing down the Syrian regime. In the same context, Turkish politics played an important role in achieving a security gap inside Syria, which resulted in the formation of armed Kurdish groups and eventually led Turkey to intervene in Syria directly. Now, Turkey has more than 10,000 soldiers inside Syria, according to reports, in clear violation of Syrian sovereignty.

2- Strengthening presence in important waterways: Turkey has also worked recently to strengthen its presence in the Red Sea, specifically the Bab al-Mandab Strait due to its great importance in world trade. The Bab al-Mandab Strait is a focal point in global oil trade between the East and West. In 2016, about 4.8 million barrels per day flowed from the strait, which explains Turkey's desire to be in the region. In September 2017, Ankara opened its largest military base abroad in Somalia.

3- Supporting allied regimes: Turkey has a special relationship with the Qatari regime. In May, Ankara exchanged its domestic currency with Qatar for a deal worth $15 billion, which is three times what was agreed between the two countries in 2018. Also, in 2017, Turkey established its first military base in Doha. In 2019, Turkey opened another military base in Doha under the name Tariq bin Ziyad in order to provide necessary military support to the Qatari regime.

4- Imposing new fait accompli in Eastern Mediterranean: Turkey attaches great importance to gas in the Eastern Mediterranean and seeks to cooperation with the GNA to impose a new fait accompli in the region. This desire played a major role in Turkey's military interference in Libya.

Negative repercussions

Turkish military interventions in the Middle East have added to tensions with Arab countries, especially Gulf countries. Moreover, the sudden shifts in Turkey's foreign policy have deepened its isolation in the Arab region, to the point that calls for a popular boycott of Turkish products are sweeping social media.

Ankara’s military intervention in Syria has also had negative repercussions on Turkey's relationship with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). After serious negotiations that lasted for several years between the two parties, which aimed at ending the war that lasted for more than two decades in exchange for the political integration of Kurds in Turkey, the war between them returned when Turkey launched Operation Euphrates Shield in August 2016, prompting the PKK to resume its military activity.

On the economic side, the Turkish lira has fallen in an unprecedented way, valued at 7 lira against one dollar in May 2020, due to the decline in foreign exchange reserves. Foreign investment in Turkey also fell by 22% in 2019, as Gulf countries are the third largest foreign investor in Turkey.

The sudden shift in Turkey's foreign policy was closely linked to the failed coup attempt that occurred in 2016, as the ruling party decided to change the country's political system and place more powers in the hands of the president, which enabled the AKP to exploit the Turkish army to carry out foreign operations for Erodgan’s benefit.