European-Turkish clash over Erdogan's ambitions in Libya

The European Union’s relationship with Turkey has entered a stage of tensions in light of Ankara’s breach of European efforts to stop military action in Libya. It is expected that the foreign ministers of EU countries will discuss relations with Turkey in their upcoming meeting on July 13, as well as ways to take steps against Ankara, which could include the imposition of economic and political sanctions.

For its part, France has also complained about Turkey’s illegal moves in the Mediterranean Sea against NATO and the Irini maritime operation aimed at imposing the arms embargo on Libya. Turkey took advantage of the international community's concern with combating the corona virus pandemic to dispatch arms, Turkish troops, and foreign mercenaries who were in Syria to Libya.

The Libyan file could escalate in the coming days, as Ankara not only continues to transfer armed militias to western Libya, but has also began planning to invade deeper into Libya and move to the east to face the Libyan National Army (LNA) led by Khalifa Haftar. This was followed by a decisive response from Egypt, as President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi asserted that eastern Libya in particular is a red line that Egypt will not allow any party to cross.

The Libyan parliament and the LNA control the east and can take many steps to stop Erdogan’s ambitions, which Europe recently understood after it had previously been lenient in this matter by not preventing the transfer of Turkish forces and militias to Libya across the Mediterranean or by air, until Turkish naval forces intercepted French and Greek warships enforcing the arms embargo.

At this point, the European position changed and NATO began to monitor the matter seriously to determine the violations made by Ankara and possibly escalate steps to deter Turkish ambitions. Turkey has clearly encroached on Libyan oil reserves in the Mediterranean, and it has created a new front of conflict along Egypt’s western borders, after Ankara previously sent terrorist elements from Syria to the Sinai to create conflict on Egypt’s eastern borders.

Dr. Awad Shafiq, professor of international law, in an interview with Bawaba in Geneva in August 2019, warned of Erdogan's ambitions in Libya, stating that the Turkish president aims to create new conflict areas in Libya and to impose a fait accompli policy as he did before In Syria, taking advantage of Europe’s preoccupation with domestic issues. This would force the rest of the parties to accept conditions or bargain over this matter for material gain, just as Erdogan also exploited the ISIS crisis before and bargained for €9 billion from Europe in exchange for receiving refugees and displaced people from Syria instead of flooding Europe with them.

Josep Borrell, the EU’s top foreign policy coordinator, seeks to secure NATO support for the EU's naval efforts, as well as a cooperation agreement between the EU and NATO in imposing the arms embargo on Libya, instead of the European Union alone.

According to the Atlantic Council, an American think tank specialized in international affairs, the recent Turkish moves disturbed Egypt, which brought about the Cairo Declaration on June 6 regarding support for a political solution and rejecting the military solution, which has received the support of Arab and foreign countries.

The Libyan crisis currently represents a major challenge to Egypt's internal stability, the Atlantic Council noted, pointing out that Egypt has taken a number of security measures in recent years, such as deploying field armies on a mission to combat terrorism and starting a massive military exercise in the country’s western region with the aim of protecting its borders and preventing serious jihadist penetrations into Egypt from eastern Libya.

Special focus has also been placed on protecting North Sinai, a strategic area that has suffered from several terrorist attacks by ISIS. The danger of having battlefronts in both the east and west has been created by the Brotherhood, which is trying to reestablish a foot in Egypt and Libya.

The analysis noted that the battle in Libya has many intertwined aspects, as the Government of National Accord (GNA) relies on Turkish-Qatari support, representing the forces of political Islamism in the region, which will not be allowed by Egypt or the LNA.

In this context, Germany, Italy and Spain agreed on the need to confront Ankara’s ambitions in Libya and to take a unified position with France in the wake of Turkish naval ships penetrating arms embargo zones. The coming days could witness an escalation against Ankara in this regard, especially since Berlin sees Turkey as abandoning its international agreements, as Ankara has also withdrawn from its agreement with the European Union regarding refugees when it opened the Turkish-Greek borders to refugees and displaced persons, which caused a big problem for the European Union prior to the corona pandemic. Although this file was largely overlooked, it was not closed, and Europe will not let it pass without punishment, especially since Ankara has already obtained billions of euros to implement this agreement. Any infraction of the agreement entails returning the funds obtained by Turkey, which has caused a major dispute between Berlin and Ankara.

Meanwhile, Italy views Ankara's attempt to seize gas in the Mediterranean as illegal, especially since there are agreements that guarantee the maritime borders between Greece, Cyprus and Italy on the one hand, and between Egypt, Greece and Cyprus on the other hand. Therefore, any Turkish attempt to impose a fait accompli policy and seize gas will not pass without accountability, and there is great coordination between the Eastern Mediterranean countries to stop the Turkish moves, especially as the fate of maritime agreements between Libya, Italy, France and Greece is unknown, and therefore Ankara has no basis to enter this region.