Erdogan's ambitions in Libya deteriorate his alliances and popularity at home

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ambitions in Libya have deteriorated his alliances and popularity at home, as he continues to support the Government of National Accord (GNA) with mercenaries and terrorists to face the Libyan National Army (LNA).

There has been a sharp drop in support for the People's Alliance, which was created in February 2018 between the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its national ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), according to the KONDA polling data.

Erdogan is seeking to harvest the fruit of his support for Fayez al-Sarraj’s government, which has become a means to plunder Libya’s wealth since Turkey and the GNA signed two memoranda of understanding in November 2019 for security cooperation and the demarcation of the Eastern Mediterranean maritime border between Ankara and Tripoli, which was met with widespread rejection at home and abroad.

Losing alliances

A poll conducted by the Eurasia Center for Public Opinion Research and published on June 16 estimated the AKP’s share of votes at 35.1% and the MHP’s share at 7.1% when distributing votes that had not yet been decided.

According to data from MetroPOLL in May 2020, the AKP’s share is at 30.7%, while the MHP is polling at 7.3%.

Kemal Özkiraz, director of the Eurasia Center for Public Opinion Research, said that support for Turkey’s presidential system had fallen below 30% in the May 2020 polls. He added that about a third of People's Alliance voters would have voted "no" if a referendum on the presidential system was repeated.

Özkiraz explained that the presidential system has not fulfilled what was promised. “In fact, we see the decline in every issue. The economy is shrinking, the lira is losing its value, and unemployment and inflation are on the rise. People also face a difficult time adapting to a party leader, so their overall view of the presidential system has been negative,” he added.

In January, the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) documented that out of 55 presidential decrees, 24 had been amended, while legislative responsibility had shifted toward the president at an alarming rate.

Libyan peace

Turkey’s intransigence in Libya has made it difficult to complete a peace process in the war-torn country, as Erdogan's regime continues to send arms and mercenaries to support the GNA, representing a stumbling block to the possibility of establishing a comprehensive political consensus and ending years of chaos.

Although LNA commander Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar has accepted international calls for a ceasefire, withdrawing his forces from the capital, and participating in international efforts to end the conflict in the country, the most recent of which is the Egyptian initiative that has been welcomed amid broad international support, Ankara continues its suspicious moves to fan the flames of conflict and abort attempts at reaching a political solution. Instead, Ankara participates in the hostilities by supporting the GNA, which undermines any chances for a peaceful solution to the crisis.

In the same context, the spokesman for the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs affirmed in a press statement on Wednesday, June 17, that the main obstacle to establishing peace and stability in Libya lies in Turkey’s systematic violations of the arms embargo imposed by the United Nations despite the commitments made in Berlin at the beginning of the year.

France is not aligned with either of the two camps in Libya, as it has always expressed that there is no military solution to the Libyan conflict, the spokesman noted, adding that France has worked in recent weeks to revive negotiations in order to reach a speedy ceasefire under the auspices of the UN and within the framework determined at the Berlin Summit.

Turkey’s support for the GNA is in direct contradiction with efforts aimed at achieving an immediate truce, the spokesman said, adding that this support is coupled with hostile and unacceptable behavior by the Turkish navy towards NATO in an attempt to hinder the implementation of the UN-imposed arms embargo. He stressed the need to stop such actions, as well as all foreign interference in the Libyan conflict.

Mercenaries

The United Nations group working on the issue of the use of mercenaries clarified in a statement that thousands of fighters from armed Syrian factions accused of committing serious human rights violations in Syria had been recruited by Turkey and sent to Libya in recent month, including children under the age of 18.

The UN team warned that relying on foreign actors contributes to escalating the conflict in Libya, undermines the prospects for a peaceful solution, and casts tragic repercussions upon the local population.

The team expressed concern about the use of mercenaries in Libya, as this is in violation of the embargo imposed by the UN Security Council and in violation of the International Convention on the Use, Financing and Training of Mercenaries, which Libya has signed. It called on all parties in the Libyan conflict to stop violations.