Implications of Iraq arresting Iranian militia elements

Iraq has entered a new stage, as its Counter Terrorist Service (CTS) arrested dozens of militia elements loyal to Iran against the backdrop of missile attacks against American interests in the country, representing a first since those attacks began eight months ago.

Several Iraqi reports indicated that the CTS arrested 23 members of the Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq and Kata’ib Hezbollah militias, including an Iranian leader, and confiscated missiles that were intended to be launched at the American targets.

Since October 2019, more than 33 missiles have targeted Iraqi facilities hosting diplomats or foreign soldiers, including six attacks in the past two weeks alone.

In a sign of the gravity of the situation, new Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi held a meeting last week of the National Security Council to discuss the missile issue and pledged to pursue those responsible.

The CTS, made up of well-trained elite forces, was created by the Americans after the invasion in 2003, and it is usually assigned the most difficult missions.

A security spokesman for the Iranian-backed Kata’ib Hezbollah launched a violent attack on Kadhimi on Friday, describing him as an American agent and threatening him with punishment and torture.

Militia supporters roamed the streets of Baghdad early Friday, displaying their strength and weapons and sending threatening messages. They also called for the release of elements who were arrested during the CTS’s raid on Thursday night.

Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq leader Qais Khazali called for lawlessness in response to the Iraqi government’s arrest of militia members, describing the raid as a serious event and indicating that the decision was not Iraqi.

Khazali admitted in a televised statement that all the bombing operations that took place in Iraq were targeting the Americans, saying that "no Iraqi forces’ camps were targeted, only American headquarters" and stressing that "there is no faction of the resistance factions targeting government institutions in the Green Zone."

Khazali also stressed that the arrest warrant was issued by Kadhimi directly. “Advice to Kadhimi: do not stand against the PMF, because they represent the people,” he said, describing Kadhimi’s government as only temporary, as “its job is to hold early elections and cross economic challenges.”

Iranian affairs researcher Osama al-Hetimi told the Reference, “Without a doubt, the raid by the Iraqi security forces of one of the PMF factions and the arrest of about 14 of them is not at all a sign of a decline in influence of the Iraqi Kata’ib Hezbollah or any of the pro-Iranian factions in Iraq. It is just a preemptive government attempt to achieve two main goals. The first is not to escalate the situation with the United States, as some factions were seeking to bomb military bases that include a number of American forces, as well as the US embassy in the Green Zone, such as had recently occurred after the assassination of Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani in Iraq in January.”

“The second goal is to avoid embarrassing the Iraqi government, which will not be able to prevent American forces from responding to operations targeting them, as the United States will not be silenced if its security is threatened. Therefore, an American response would be a new violation of Iraqi sovereignty, according to the vision of the new Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, who is trying to succeed in his main mission by balancing his relations between Tehran and Washington within the framework of the plan put in place to keep the political system governing Iraq as is, after the PMF nearly toppled the entire political system, as well as to get rid of Iranian influence and the principle of sectarian quotas,” Hetimi added.

He concluded by saying, “In this context, it cannot be said that Iraq is likely to witness a decline in the influence of these militias in the near future. This is confirmed by the reaction of these militias to the raid and arrests, after which their militants took to the streets of Baghdad and the Green Zone and made threats.”