Tehran pressures Kadhimi with accusations of involvement in Soleimani’s assassination

Iran has suggested it has evidence of the involvement of the Iraqi intelligence service, when it was headed by current Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, in the US raid early this year near Baghdad airport that killed its infamous general, Qassem Soleimani.

The new claim came ahead of Kadhimi’s scheduled (and temporarily postponed) visit to Saudi Arabia as part of his first foreign tour, which is also to include Iran, the United States and other countries. The accusations coincided with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s visit to Baghdad.

The Kata’ib Hezbollah militia in Iraq had previously directly accused Kadhimi of personal involvement in the raid that had killed Soleimani and his aide, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, who was the de facto field commander of the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) in Iraq. Tehran, however, has not formally endorsed this accusation.

Iraq watchers know well that the Kata’ib Hezbollah militia is an Iraqi proxy of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and that its positions express the positions of Iranian hard-liners.

Following the unofficial announcement at the beginning of this month of Kadhimi’s intention to visit Saudi Arabia, Iran and the United States, Iraqi media controlled by the IRGC began circulating a list of five officers of the Iraqi intelligence service they said were involved in planning Soleimani’s assassination.

Iran is perceived as the master puppeteer of a wide spectrum of Iraqi media that it controls through the so-called Islamic Radio and Television Union affiliated with the IRGC, which is also active in Yemen, Syria and Lebanon.

This Iranian media escalation reached a feverish peak on the eve of Zarif’s official visit to Baghdad Sunday. Iranian diplomats announced that Tehran has “compelling evidence that two Iraqi officials, along with a number of employees,” were involved in planning Soleimani’s assassination.

Observers believe that the goal of Iran’s escalation is to intimidate Kadhimi before he embarks on his visits to Saudi Arabia and the United States. For Tehran, the Iraqi prime minister appears serious about strengthening his government’s relations with Riyadh and Washington, both of which Tehran consider enemies.

Iranian diplomats have suggested that Tehran will bring up the issue of Soleimani’s assassination and of those involved in it during Kadhimi’s visit to the Iranian capital in the next few days. A diplomatic source said that Soleimani’s assassination is one of the items on the agenda of security talks between Tehran and Baghdad during Kadhimi’s visit.

Judging by the latest Tehran-instigated media campaign in Iraq against the Kadhimi government, observers believe that Iran will not hesitate to blackmail Kadhimi if it senses any resistance or insurrection on his part.

With previous Iraqi heads of government, Tehran has always used the carrot and stick approach. But, this time, experts believe, it may have to resort to new language if it wants to maintain good relations with Kadhimi, who seems to have already picked other options than blind obedience to Tehran.

Iraqi political sources say that Iran cannot accept the reality of widespread Iraqi popular rejection of the policies of all its allies in Baghdad, which was clearly expressed in the October 2019 uprising in which hundreds of thousands of Iraqi Shias chanted slogans against Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollay Ali Khamenei and demanded an end to Iran’s negative influence in their country.

The sources pointed out that the card of the October uprising may be used by Kadhimi as an effective weapon in his dealings with Iran, provided he fortifies his internal flanks by ensuring the military establishment’s loyalty to the state.

Observers believe that Iran is aware of the depth of its crisis in Iraq after the Iraqi Shia street during the October uprising shattered the myth that Tehran is the protector of the Shia sect.

Iraqi observers distinguish between two types of Iranian response to the significant change in Iraqi Shias’ mood — a change caused by the behaviour of the parties and militias loyal to Iran. On the one hand, there is the response of the Iranian state, represented by President Hassan Rohani and Zarif. On the other, there is the response of Iran of the Islamic Revolution, represented by Khamenei and the IRGC.

The Iranian state wants to maintain Tehran’s hegemony in Iraq through soft power, using diplomatic tools, economic penetration and quiet influence in politics, but revolutionary Iran insists on using noise and chaos to maintain its grip on Iraq, as it looks at it through the eyes of Iraqi militia leaders who see themselves as above the law and say thatKadhimi is just America’s agent who wants to revitalise relations with Saudi Arabia.

Many Iraqis do not hear about the state-based Iran because of all the din made by revolutionary Iran through its proxy media in Iraq against the United States, Saudi Arabia and Kadhimi and his government. For his part, Kadhimi needs a magical formula to manage Tehran’s complex influence in Iraq, according to observers who believe that the Iraqi prime minister should be patient in order to avoid falling into the trap of an early confrontation that Iran wants to draw him into with the goal of bringing down his government.

Zarif arrived in Baghdad very early Sunday morning, even before Iraqi official circles were up and about, on a visit whose timing is causing controversy. It came about 48 hours before Kadhimi’s scheduled visit to Saudi Arabia, which was postponed after the Saudi monarch was hospitalised.

Despite what appeared to be a busy schedule for Zarif in Baghdad, including meetings with the heads of government, the republic and the parliament, as well as with a spectrum of political leaders, including Ammar al-Hakim, leader of al-Hikma Movement, and Hadi al-Amiri, leader of the Badr Organisation, Zarif’s statements were brief. Political discussions between Iraq and Iran taking place through official delegations are usually kept strictly confidential.

Kadhimi reiterated his country’s steadfast stance in seeking to assert its balanced and positive role in making peace in the region. “Iraq seeks to assert its balanced and positive role in making peace and progress in the region, which will bring all of its people more stability, prosperity and sustainable development,” he said as he received Zarif.

In turn, Zarif affirmed that “Iran is highly interested in the upcoming visit of the Iraqi Prime Minister to Iran, to start a new phase of cooperation between the two countries.”

Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein stressed in the press conference he held with his Iranian counterpart that Iraq is working to safeguard Iraq from international tensions and seeks to protect Iraqi sovereignty. “A strong Iraq means a strong region, and we seek balanced relations with all of our neighbours according to Iraq’s national interest and the principle of non-interference in internal affairs,” he added.