Preliminary results of Iraqi elections: Political equation is a mystery

After the preliminary results of the Iraqi parliamentary elections were announced, which did not come far from expectations, the results also brought surprises, albeit less than they led to a real change in the political equation in the country.

The Sadrist movement led by the Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr came to the fore in the southern regions, while other Shiite forces affiliated with Iran declined.

Sadr's bloc won 73 of the 329 parliament seats, 19 more than it won in the last elections in 2018.

The Sadrist bloc is the most prominent Shiite force in Iraq, followed by the Saraya al-Salam militia, which was accused of killing protesters in the popular demonstrations in 2019 that demanded an end to Iranian influence and an end to corruption.

Sadr tried to distance himself from Tehran despite his public relations with it, as well as from the political class ruling Iraq, which he accused of corruption.

Although his previous bloc, Sairoon, was a participant in the Iraqi parliament and government during the 2019 demonstrations, he called on his supporters to participate in the protest movement peacefully.

Prior to the last elections, Sadr announced his withdrawal from participating in the voting process and repudiated those who participated in it, before deciding to participate strongly.

The challenge facing Sadr is to gather a sufficient number of seats, up to at least 165, to form the largest bloc that can form a new government.

It is difficult to predict the alliances that the cleric will build after the elections, but he has strong ambitions in assembling alliances to win the ability to choose the next prime minister.

In a speech delivered by Sadr after the announcement of the preliminary results, he described his bloc’s victory as “a victory for reform... and against corruption and normalization.”

The State of Law Coalition led by former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki also won an advanced rank among the political blocs, winning 37 seats, compared to 25 it won in the last elections. The Sadrist movement's progress came at the expense of other Shiite forces linked to the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF).

The Fatah Alliance led by Hadi al-Amiri is considered the most prominent losing force, as it achieved only 14 seats, in a decline from the results of the 2018 elections, when it came second with 47 seats. Meanwhile, the National Power of the State Coalition led by Shiite leader Ammar al-Hakim and former Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi also declined, receiving only four seats.

As for the Sunni forces, the Taqaddum (Advancement) Coalition led by Parliament Speaker Mohamed al-Halbousi won 43 seats, outperforming the al-Azm Alliance led by the head of the Arab Project, Khamis al-Khanjar, and the National Salvation Front headed by Osama al-Nujaifi.

In the Kurdish provinces, the Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) led by Masoud Barzani led with 32 seats, while the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) led by the Talabani family won 17 seats. The Gorran (Change) Movement lost all its seats.

The elections recorded the lowest voter turnout since 2005 due to boycott calls and desperation for change.