Why a distracted Russia points to an unstable future for Syria

The Islamic State (IS) group announced this week that its leader had been killed in Syria, while the US-backed group that destroyed its so-called caliphate in the country declared it was halting all counter-terrorism operations.

This was not because IS no longer poses a threat, but because the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces – a group labelled terrorists themselves by Ankara – was facing ongoing Turkish bombardment and the threat of another invasion.

Enraged by a recent Istanbul bombing blamed on Kurdish militants, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish president, promised this month that his tanks and soldiers would soon cross the border to “root out” the Kurdish forces that Ankara labels terrorists linked to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party.

Since 2016, Turkey and its proxies have launched three such incursions against Kurdish fighters to create a 200-mile buffer zone along its border. Its last major operation in 2019 was halted by Russia brokering a ceasefire. When Mr Erdogan last threatened to invade this April, the combined threat of US sanctions and the persistent urging of Russia and Iran were enough to halt his plans.

This time, it is different.

Russia, a crucial source of support to Bashar Al-Assad, the Syrian president, since 2015, is now preoccupied with its disastrous Ukraine invasion. 

Turkey, meanwhile, calculates that it has freer rein to pursue its ambitions in Syria, as Ankara is suddenly indispensable to the West again.

As a Nato member, Turkey is able to block, or accede to, Finland and Sweden joining the defence alliance. Equally, Turkish military support to Ukraine, in particular the game-changing Bayraktar TB2 drones, makes the United States less willing to challenge Ankara.

“They’re in a place to exploit that now,” said Elizabeth Tsurkov, a fellow at the New Lines Institute.

Mr Erdogan apparently feels comfortable enough with his increased leverage to pronounce that his Syrian offensive would begin “at the most convenient time” - leading observers to wonder whether he was simply seeking to rally his nationalist base ahead of elections next June, which are expected to be closely fought.

In contrast, the United States, Russia and the Syrian government have offered relatively milquetoast rebuffs.

The United States, which supports the SDF in the north-east, has "urged an immediate de-escalation", warning that Turkish air strikes "directly threatened the safety of” roughly 1,000 American soldiers stationed in Syria.

Amid reports that over a dozen Syrian soldiers had been killed in Turkish strikes last week, Ayman Sousan, the Syrian deputy foreign minister, called Turkey’s escalation “unacceptable” but urged "cooperation".

He was speaking at a meeting of Turkish, Syrian, Iranian and Russian officials in Kazakhstan, where Alexander Lavrentyev, Russia's special presidential envoy for Syria, similarly called on Turkey “to show restraint”.

With its forces mired in Ukraine, Russia has likely downsized its Syrian deployment by two or more battalions – at least 1,200 men – Western diplomats and an Israeli official recently told the New York Times.

This leaves Damascus feeling exposed, according to a Syrian foreign ministry official. “The Turkish desire to start a military offensive is opportunistic and mainly because of Russia’s indifference due to Ukraine,” said the official, speaking anonymously as they were not authorised to brief the media.

One Damascus resident told The Telegraph that Russian convoys were much less visible in the streets of the capital than previously, leaving many in government-controlled areas anxious about being abandoned.

And since the summer, when Russia took back an S-300 anti-aircraft missile battery that it had previously “gifted” to Syria, Israeli air strikes appear to have increased.

Responding to reports of multiple Israeli attacks on Syria last week, Fatima Salman, a pro-regime commentator, wrote on Facebook: “The Russian officers who are staying at the Hmeimim base hotel are drinking vodka, enjoying women and celebrating, why don’t they warn us when they see on their radars missiles coming towards us?”

Amid the instability, it came as a surprise to all when the IS announced this week that its leader Abu al-Hassan al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi had been killed in Syria. It named a previously unknown figure as the new leader, the group’s fourth in three years.

But if the death of another leader suggested a terror group on the ropes, a Turkish invasion could offer it the breathing room it needs to bounce back, General Mazloum Abdi,  the head of the SDF, told a press conference this week.

But for now, Turkey was still gauging the reaction of the United States and Russia, he said.

"We are still nervous. We need stronger, more solid statements to stop Turkey," he said. "Turkey has announced its intent and is now feeling things out. The beginning of an invasion will depend on how it analyses the positions of other countries."