Al-Shabaab’s threats to Horn of Africa security
International and regional
powers should map out an overall and effective strategy to stand with the
Somali government to help re-build its national army. Coincidently, they should
counter those militants ideologically.
The growing influence of al-Qaeda-linked group al-Shabaab
al-Mujahideen (also known as al-Shabaab Movement) over the past few years have
posed threats to Somalia’s internal security and the entire Horn of African,
alike; it has recently sought extending its influence outside Somalia via
having a strong link to Qaeda branch in Yemen.
Lately, al-Qaeda militant organisation in general has
brought its influence to bear on northern and western parts of Africa. It is
working on building up a network connects all branches all over the continent,
starting from Libya, Mali and Niger. Unlike the Islamic State militant group
(ISIS), al-Qaeda strategic structure depends on the organised technique to
avoid hunting.
Therefore, understanding the repercussions of al-Shabaab’s
clout on the security of the Horn of African countries requires an in-depth
look at the movement’s characteristics, factors of its influence, and the
reasons behind its increasing attacks.
I - Characteristics of Al-Shabaab
Somalia suffers many armed groups; the most dangerous one
is Al-Shabaab. It was commonly known as
“Al-Shabab al-Mujahideen” (means in English the Jihadist Youth) since 2006
after the Union of Islamic Courts controlled over Mogadishu and other parts in
central and southern Somalia. Since then, it announced that it would not fight
as a resistance organisation anymore but as ‘Jihadist” against “enemies of
Islam,” missing the concept of true Islam that rejects all kinds of violence.
On the ground, the movement made a significant gain;
two-thirds of the capital Mogadishu came under its control in the period
between 2009 and 2011. The United
Nations Monitoring group on Somalia and Eritrea has estimated that movement has
around 5 million fighters (1)
1.
Emergence
of al-Shabaab Movement: http://www.islamist-movements.com/2372
The Movement’s points of strength
1- Widespread presence
Al-Shabaab widely exists in 18 areas, including nine places
southern Somalia, such as cities of Kismayo, Mogadishu, Merca, Jowhar, and
Garbahare. Although its militants were forced get out of these areas, they
retook their control over them. On March 7, 2018, the militants recaptured many
parts of Balad district. Mid-2017, the group seized the north-eastern town of
Garad, which locates in the semi-autonomous region of Puntland, to have it asa safe haven where its fighters can
shelter from airstrikes in open areas southern and centre of the country.
On August 14, 2014, Al-Shabaab completely took over Lego
town that located on the road between Mogadishu and Baidoa,after Uganda forces
withdrew.
Al-Shabaab’s structure is hierarchy. It is believed that
the group has four wings: first, the Shura Council, which chaired by an emir
and consists of leaders. Second, “the Call” for recruiting new fighters. The
third division is called “Hasbah”; it represents the religious police who
monitor if the group’s religious rules are applied or not. The fourth one is the “Military wing” for
training fighters and carrying out terrorist attacks. (2)
3- Reliable sources of finance:
The movement has reliable sources to fund its activities
and fighters. The most important source is the Somali tribes, to which some of
militants belong. These tribes help the group in livestock trade and the
agricultural production. Second resource is money of remittances transferred to
the group via bank accounts from charities outside Somalia. In addition, taxes
on trades and having ransoms of hostages are the group’s other financing
sources. (3)
4- Excessive Violence
Al-Shabaab is known, amongst all terrorist groups, with
excessive violence. It is described as “al-Qaeda’s bloodiest branch as it can
kill hundreds of people in one terrorist attack. On October 14, 2017,
Al-Shabaab killed 358 people and injured 228 others, using a car bomb in
Mogadishu. Two weeks later, it launched a double attacks by two car bombs
downtown the capital, claiming lives of 17 people.
(2) and (3) Questions on Somalia’s
future amid al-Shabaab’s escalating attacks: Emarat Alyoum
https://www.emaratalyoum.com/politics/reports-and-translation/2017-11-20-1.1045718
5- Tribal alliances:
The group managed to have alliances with a number of Somali
tribes. Recently, it formed an alliance with Mercidi tribe to increase its influence in the area. However, to break
off this alliance, the Somali government has appointed Hassan Ali Khairy, one
of this tribe, as a Prime Minister on February 23, 2017. (4) Although the
fragile government’s decision of the appointment could pose a threat to itself,
it tries to bring stability and curb the increasing terrorist attacks.
Since the beginning of 2006, Al-Shabab’s attacks
dramatically increased on all levels. In Somalia, terrorist attacks,
particularly with car bombing, unprecedentedly escalated. On February 2018, two
explosions hit the Capital Mogadishu, killing 45 people and injuring 36 others.
Targeting civilians is one of changes made for the
movement’s attacks since early 2017. Car bombing attacks targeted public
places, killing civilians and military personnel. On March 17, 2017, a car bomb
exploded in a crowded street in Mogadishu, claiming lives of 15 civilians and
injuring 17 others. They also deliberately target some civilians; on August 11,
2017, the group has killed two civilians in
Kismayo city over accusation of cooperating with the government. Its
attacks showed how the group has been hunted by a state of arrogance.
On other level, the group have focused on targeting the
African forces. In early August 2016, a number of Ugandan troops were killed in
attack by the movement’s militants near Buulo Mareer town. In a video footage
titled “Bitter Truth” released by al-Shabaab, they executed a captured Kenyan
soldier in August 2017.
These recent terrorist attacks showed that the group’s
ideology has turned be excessively extremist by targeting civilians including
women and children, contradicting with Al-Qaeda’s fundamental ideology, which was calling for
avoiding women and children in their attacks. Due to the change of its
ideology, some leaders split from the movement . Leader Mukhtar Abu Mansour and
his followers have recently handed themselves in to the Somali government in
August 2017. (5)
On the other hand, the movement tried to solidify its
ideology and history via media to prove that it is not a mere local militant
group, but a big organisation ones under
al-Qaeda’s command. In June 2017, the group released a documentary titled “The Mach of Resistance by Sheikh
Mukhtar Abu al-Zubayr” talks about the
movement’s history, foundation, and leaders.
(4) Values and joint
principles between the President and Hassan Khairy are behind appointing the
latter as prime minister- Mogadishu Centre for Research and Studies
goo.gl/Vom4gb
(5) Impacts of dissension
among al-Shabaab al-Mujahdeen in Somalia- Al-Siyassa http://www.siyassa.org.eg/News/15424.aspx
The documentary revealed the identity of former leader of the movement Mukhtar Abu al-Zubayr . His real name is Ahmed Abdi Godane, who was killed in a drone airstrike in September 2014. al-Zubayr was an known only for few leaders in the movement.
The documentary also revealed identities of other unknown leaders such as Mohammed Ismail Yusuf and Ibrahim Naley , who played a big role in targeting U.S. troops in Somalia. The identity of Abu Talha al-Sudani, the militant who plotted for attacks against U.S. embassy in Nairobi and Dar al-Salam in 1998, was also revealed. Also prominent leader Mohamed Santiri’s identity was announced. (6)
It talked about the former leader of al-Shabaab Abu
al-Zubayr, his life, education, then his travel to Afghanistan where he met
with former Leader of al-Qaed Osama bin Laden and his successor Ayman
al-Zawahriri. It also tackled the movement’s armament.
The movement aimed to send a message, via the documentary,
that it is a powerful organisation and their militants scarify themselves in
the name of the religion against the U.S. troops and the Somali government, in
order to recruit biggest number of youth inside and outside Somalia.
Moreover, the film showed that the movement’s have a great
ability to release well-produced media contents, like ISIS’ ones.
III- Motives of escalated attacks
Al-Shabaab’s
escalated activities have certain motives on military, geographical and media
levels.
1- Expanding clout:
Escalating terrorist attacks against Somali government,
African troops, and dissenting militias indicate that the movement seeks to
monopolise violence among all militant organisations in the country. It aims to
extend its control in new areas, particularly along the strategic coastal
lines, which connect Somalia with Kenya.
2- Exploiting the
withdrawal of African forces:
The group recaptured areas that suffered security vacuum
after withdrawal African forces. In October 2016, the movement announced its
control over city of Halgan after withdrawal of Ethiopian troops. Other two
cities of El Ali and Moqokori were recaptured by the militants after withdrawal
of Ethiopian troops. (7)
(6) “March of Resistance”
a documentary produced by al-Shabaab al-Mujahdeen’s emir Mukhtar Abu al-Zubayr- Sheada news agency- goo.gl/ANi5P7
(7) New phase: reasons of
U.S. targeting against Somali al-Shabaab al-Mujahdeen- Future for Advanced Research and Studies
goo.gl/eNriiN
3- Stop Dissenting
Over the past few years, voices of dissent rose among the
group’s members. Other militant groups announced their loyalties to its rival ISIS.
So, al-Shabaab leaders sought to create a state of organisational cohesion and
confidence among its ranks.They worked on escalation of terrorist attacks to
expand geographically, and on producing a good media propaganda for its
ideology.
4- Thwarting Farmajo’s project
President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo has adopted a new initiative aims uproots all terrorist groups, mainly al-Shabaab movement. The initiative seeks to bring stability to the country via preventing the group’s financing sources, rebuilding the state’s institutions, specially the military institution, and via creating tribal alliances.
Consequently, the
terrorist attacks have been intensified since early 2017 to foil Farmajo’s
project, which endangers the movement’s influence. (8)
5- Scaling down ISIS’ influence:
Around 600 militants, led by former member Abdel Qader
Mo’men, have dissented from al-Shabaab and announced their allegiance to ISIS
in January 2016. Since then, ISIS-linked group was considered a threat to
al-Shabaab’s influence. Thus, the movement has recently worked on scaling down
ISIS’ influence, particularly among the youth via adopting excessive violence
and increasing number of attacks as extremists believe that loyalty should be
given to the most violent organisation.
IV- Repercussions of Al-Shabaab’ clout
on Horn of Africa
Following the defeat of ISIS in Syria and Iraq, al-Qaeda
groups worked on expanding its presence in many countries to easily direct
attacks against international and regional targets. So, al-Shabaab sought
boosting its presence in Africa and increasing coordination with al-Qaeda
branch in Yemen, in order to not be the next target by the international
powers. However, its increasing clout would have certain negative
repercussions.
(8) President Farmajo and
the terrorist challenge…strength and weakness papers- al-Siyassa magazine- http://www.siyassa.org.eg/News/12013.aspx
1- Threatening U.S. interests:
U.S. and Western countries are seen arch-enemies by
al-Qaeda since its establishment under name of “World Islamic Front for Jihad against
the Jews and the Crusaders” in August 1988. It was the only terrorist group
whose ideology depends on the hostility against the U.S. Former leader of al-Qaeda Osama bin Laden and his deputy Ayman
al-Zawahiri stated “The ruling to kill the Americans and their allies— civilian
and military—is an individual duty for every Muslim who can do it in any
country in which it is possible to do it.” (9)
So, al-Shahaab’s priority is to target the U.S. interests in the region. The more groups’ terrorist attacks escalated, the more U.S. interests are endangered. “We approach these security threats through our third strategic principle of keeping pressure on the networks of VEOs such as Al-Shabaab, ISIS, Al Qaeda, and Boko Haram in order to mitigate their destabilising influence,” said Marine Corps Gen. Thomas D. Waldhauser, commander of U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) before the House Armed Services Committee on national security challenges and U.S. military activities in Africa, on March 6, 2018. (10)
“At the same time, we remain postured and ready to respond to contingencies and to protect U.S. personnel and facilities on the continent,” he added.
Over the past ten years, U.S. has launched a series of
airstrikes on al-Qaeda militants in Africa, killing around 300 members.
Recently, U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has given the
AFRICOM Command the authority to
intensify airstrikes against the movement’a safe hideouts, said Captain Jeff
Davis, the Pentagon spokesman, in a statement on March 30, 2017.
9) Guidance of Islamic
Movements in the World, first issue, third edition- March 2006 - Al-Ahram
Centre for Politics and Strategic Studies- Page 73
(10) Africa Command
(AFRICOM) before the House Armed
Services Committee- http://www.marines.mil/News/News-Display/Article/1459689/africom-commander-testifies-before-house-committee/
https://www.defense.gov/Videos/videoid/588139/dvpcc/false/:
Al-Qaeda has a great hostility against Gulf States in
general, and Saudi Arabia and the UAE in particular. In 1988, It established
its branch “al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)” to attack the Gulf
States. Al-Asma’i has delimited the peninsula saying “The Arabian Peninsula’s
latitude extends from the countryside of Iraq to Adel, while its longitude
stretches from Tihamah to outskirts of Levant.”
Thus, all Gulf States locate in the Arabian Peninsula. (11)
On April 30,2017, Qasim al-Raymi, AQAP current leader,
called upon all branches to commit attacks in the two Gulf States. Despite that
al-Qaeda’s attacks against Saudi Arabia’ interests were limited in Yemen,
Raymi’s call indicted that the organisation still bears hatred towards the two
oil-rich countries.
Al-Qaeda escalating attacks will negatively affect Saudi
and UAR interests, especially after these countries pledged 130 million euros
(€ 00 million form Riyadh and €30 million from UAE) to the anti-terrorism
forces in Sahel region of West Africa, according toFrench President Emmanuel
Macron in Paris Summit in December
2017. The anti-terrorism forces consist
of troops from Mauritania, Mali, Burkina, Chad, and Niger.
After being well-trained and well-financed from seized
ports, al-Qaeda members in Somalia and Yemen planned to launch attacks on the
Gulf States, said former Somali Intelligence Chief Bashir Mohamed Gamei Ghoby.(12)
3- Threatening International Navigation:
Distinguished maritime ports locate in the Horn of African
along Red Sea, Aden Gulf, and Indian Ocean are vital world trade passages
through which Gulf oil ships pass from Gulf States to European countries and
U.S. Red Sea-located Bab al-Mandab Strait is annually crossed by about 12
million containers of goods, in addition to the oil tankers. It is considered
one of the most important international trade ports. Therefore, the increasing
activity and influence of the al-Shabaab Movement represents a direct threat to
international trade, particularly after
the movement sought expanding its existence in Somalia to infiltrate to
Djibouti, the gate to Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
(11) Ali Bakr: "The
strategy of combatting AQAP - a comparative study with the Egyptian
situation" - Al-Maspar Center for Studies - October 2007 - Dubai, UAE - p:
136
(12) Somali al-Shabaab
Movement and its threats to Gulf security- goo.gl/XG7Yq9.
4- Threats to Neighbouring Countries:
Neighbouring countries could be easy targeted by al-Shabaab
movement amid its creasing influence. Kenya has witnessed several attacks
announced by the movement. The latest attack was launched on March 8, 2018,
killing five police personnel. On 21 September 2013, they attacked Westgate
shopping centre in Kenyan Capital of Nairobi, killing at least 72 people (61
civilians, 6 Kenyan soldiers, five attackers.) Also, around 200 other people
were injured in the attack.
In April 2015, a total of 147 people, including 70 academic
students and four attackers, were killed in terrorist attack launched against a
university Garissa , northeastern Kenya, by al-Shabaab.
Recently, the movement has targeted the UN peacekeeping
forces; early 2015, the militants opened fire on them and killed two soldiers.
In conclusion, the
absence of a comprehensive counter-terrorism strategy in Somalia could unleash
al-Shabaab’s escalating violence and threats against the region and the entire
African continent in the coming period of time.
